Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[SpurMeUp]

We'll never know - we didn't get to negotiate properly because Remain cut our feet out from under us.

Yes! It would have been so beautiful! If I recall you voted to Remain. And Brexit has always been about dreams and delusions. Remainers pointed out shi1 wouldn't be easy. The tensions between maintaining our wealth and reducing UK free trade are "brexit" itself not any agency on the part of people. Remainers didn't "cut your feet off". Brexit has had plenty of chances in the hands of people who beleived in it. It not being delivered is Brexit. Its contradications and impossibilities. Not anyone's doing. At some point you have to smell the coffee and stop blaming other people - the EU for the UKs issues, and spacegoating remainers for leavers not delivering the impossible.

Thanks for posting! How much whinging will there be from sunken myth?

 

[SpurMeUp]

I believe Brexit is about us breaking from Rome again. It will become a release in a similar way and if the government believes in the incredible capacity of the British people, exemplified by their supreme entrepreneurial spirit, and sets our regulations and trade policy accordingly, the opportunities will be enormous.

What I find totally amazing, is that in all these years, there are no examples from the likes of IDS. What exactly are the oppotunities? From whom to whom? From which kinds of businesses selling to which markets? Don'tforget these are "enormous" oppotunities. Are they so blantent that they are undescribable!? It is hyperbole.

Just look at how well placed we are to make the most of these opportunities. The UK came second in CEOWORLD’s Most Start-up Friendly Countries in the World Survey for 2019, the only European country in the top five. We topped Forbes’ 2018 list of countries to do business in and the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom’ said: “The UK has one of the world’s most efficient business and investment environments and will soon be open to expanded global trade relationships.”

And the glaring elephent in his arguement? We are the Most Start-up Friendly nation while in the EU! Pre-EU we couldn't even work a full week.

My only nagging worry is that too many of those in their twenties and thirties have bought in to the idea that leaving the EU is about retreating into a form of isolation. This should be no surprise given that that they have been educated by so many people who subscribe to the idea that “little Britain” must cleave to the EU as the only guarantor of internationalism, cross border research and moderation.

It is not just those in their 20s and 30s. It is generally those who understand economics. All Economists see that Brexit is a backward step. Why is that? No one think "little Britian must cleave to the EU as the only guarantor of internationalism" that is just emotive balderdash. No, the EU isn't everything and amazing, its a pragmatic free trade area that has seen the UK prosper. It is a way for countries to cooperate when the world is smaller and we need to work on claimate change, Russia, etc. The EU is not dramatic. It does not affect us day to day, and it needs reforms ideally around FoM which other EU nations would be open to. But even FoM is no bad thing - its a fantastic thing to be free to move anywhere accross the continent. But there needs to be greater controls on benifit leaching - which the UK it self could actually do now! Without any change in EU law we could control EU benifits taken from the UK far far better than we do.

So IDS will try and sell an emotion, but understand the claims he makes, and it doesn't compute. It's a dream he had at private schools about an old style Britian with colonies. In short its duluded flimflam.

 

[scaramanga]

Yes! It would have been so beautiful! If I recall you voted to Remain. And Brexit has always been about dreams and delusions. Remainers pointed out shi1 wouldn't be easy, the tensions between maintaining our wealth and reducing UK free trade etc. They didn't "cut your feet off". Brexit has had plenty of chances with politicians who beleived in charge of it. At some point you have to smell the coffee and stop blaming other people - the EU for the UKs issues, Remainers for no one delivering the impossible.

Thanks for posting! How much whinging will there be from sunken myth?

Step through the logic from the position of the EU. At the start of this process the UK has 3 options - No deal, arrange a deal or remain. They want us to remain, could probably live with a deal on their terms and don't want us to leave without a deal.

The moment remainers take no deal off the table (which, it turns out, May was a part of and should be charged with treason for), then the EU has to offer a bricky deal. Because our only options are that or remain. They want us to remain but will be fine with giving us a bricky deal.

Remainers scuppered this from the start. You can see that change in language from European leaders in the last week or so. Now they know that the two choices are leaving with or without a deal, their need to come up with a deal that suits us becomes important again.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Step through the logic from the position of the EU. At the start of this process the UK has 3 options - No deal, arrange a deal or remain. They want us to remain, could probably live with a deal on their terms and don't want us to leave without a deal.

The moment remainers take no deal off the table (which, it turns out, May was a part of and should be charged with treason for), then the EU has to offer a bricky deal. Because our only options are that or remain. They want us to remain but will be fine with giving us a bricky deal.

Remainers scuppered this from the start. You can see that change in language from European leaders in the last week or so. Now they know that the two choices are leaving with it without a deal, their need to come up with a deal that suits us becomes important again.

We all get that. But people with intelligence are one step ahead. No one wants to leave without a deal. That is simple logic. The notion that we could pull the wool over the eyes of the EU is flawed from the outset. Leavers want a deal, the EU do, remainers don't want no deal. This fake bargaining position that you seem to think was possible, isn't.

1. The need for a deal just shows that the EU has value to us.
2. We lose more trade than they do. Not just with 27 nations in the EU but with all the free trade agreements around the world.
3. A seasoned negotiator would never take such an immature stance/bluff - "we want no deal". It presumes stupidity on your potential partners side. And it undermines trust and working together with them. It also falls apart when they say, Do One! As of course they would. Imagine if it was France trying to game us like that. We'd tell em to fuk off. !!

 

[Rorschach]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ng-modern-britain-brexit-similar-opportunity/

What a load of gonads.

 

[ringo]

What a load of gonads.

Sadly I am unable to see beyond the paywall. And therefore unable to benefit from IDS's rapturous epiphany.
Presumably, as part of this glorious renaissance, he is advocating a clear out of non-believers, a bonfire of the vanities.
And so it begins, at first with de-selection.....
Is there a Witchfinder General position in cabinet?

 

[scaramanga]

We all get that. But people with intelligence are one step ahead. No one wants to leave without a deal. That is simple logic. The notion that we could pull the wool over the eyes of the EU is flawed from the outset. Leavers want a deal, the EU do, remainers don't want no deal. This fake bargaining position that you seem to think was possible, isn't.

1. The need for a deal just shows that the EU has value to us.
2. We lose more trade than they do. Not just with 27 nations in the EU but with all the free trade agreements around the world.
3. A seasoned negotiator would never take such an immature stance/bluff - "we want no deal". It presumes stupidity on your potential partners side. And it undermines trust and working together with them. It also falls apart when they say, Do One! As of course they would. Imagine if it was France trying to game us like that. We'd tell em to fuk off. !!

Yet, despite all your claims to the contrary, making no deal a real option has made some of the more prominent voices in Europe soften their approach. In Ireland, Leo the cowardly lion is starting to face a lot of criticism for trying to continue with the stance he used against May with Johnson.

 

[Rorschach]

Sadly I am unable to see beyond the paywall. And therefore unable to benefit from IDS's rapturous epiphany.
Presumably, as part of this glorious renaissance, he is advocating a clear out of non-believers, a bonfire of the vanities.
And so it begins, at first with de-selection.....
Is there a Witchfinder General position in cabinet?

Scara posted it there on the previous page . I wouldn't bother though.

 

[Rorschach]

Yet, despite all your claims to the contrary, making no deal a real option has made some of the more prominent voices in Europe soften their approach. In Ireland, Leo the cowardly lion is starting to face a lot of criticism for trying to continue with the stance he used against May with Johnson.

The criticism is only just the increased bleating of brexiters. The EU and Ireland are one with their message.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Yet, despite all your claims to the contrary, making no deal a real option has made some of the more prominent voices in Europe soften their approach. In Ireland, Leo the cowardly lion is starting to face a lot of criticism for trying to continue with the stance he used against May with Johnson.

What criticism?

 

[Rorschach]

What criticism?

The blame game, is all I am hearing now.

 

[scaramanga]

The criticism is only just the increased bleating of brexiters. The EU and Ireland are one with their message.

What criticism?

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/co...ease-at-leos-handling-of-brexit-38351872.html

Support for his tactics has dropped from about 60% when he was dealing with May.

https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/insisting-backstop-got-us-johnson-449041


https://m.independent.ie/opinion/co...d-leo-and-simons-backstop-bluff-38351866.html

 

[AuroRaman]

What a load of gonads.

Of course IDS, the Toriest of Tories, would describe leaving the EU by harking back to that glorious era we spread the biggest cancer across land and sea this planet has ever witnessed.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using Fapatalk

 

[SpurMeUp]

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/co...ease-at-leos-handling-of-brexit-38351872.html

Support for his tactics has dropped from about 60% when he was dealing with May.

https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/insisting-backstop-got-us-johnson-449041


https://m.independent.ie/opinion/co...d-leo-and-simons-backstop-bluff-38351866.html

No one wants what Boris is threatening. So people will be unhappy. It is damaing the UK. Just look at the value of the pound. That is not success however! Great, Boris has undermined the UK and put increased risk onto the table!

It is not whether the public are unhappy that matters here. Your point was the EU would strike a deal if we seriously threaten no deal. It is this last bit that is flawed and you've provided no evidence of the EU offering what we want (do we even know what we want?) because of the great buffons bluff.

So as you were. In the interim the UK suffers. Not dramatically or massively because we are still trading freely and doing well. But confidence, outward investment, risk aversion have a cumerlative effect holding us back from powering out of asterity. Just this week the government intimated £2.5b for Brexit. That could have gone to the NHS! Brexit is a disgusting waste of time and our money.

 

[AuroRaman]

@SpurMeUp thanks for bringing the term spacegoating into my life [emoji6]


Sitting on my porcelain throne using Fapatalk

 

[SpurMeUp]

@SpurMeUp thanks for bringing the term spacegoating into my life [emoji6]


Sitting on my porcelain throne using Fapatalk

If you ever want to try it, let me know. It's a rush!

 

[ringo]

The threat of no-deal only works (as a route to a renegotiated deal for the UK) if a) the negative impact of no-deal on the EU and/or on one or some of its members is equal to or greater than the impact on the UK and the EU and/or member state is unwillingness to tolerate or mitigate that impact and b) no-deal is a politically and practically plausible option for the UK government.

I'm not convinced either a) or b) satisfied. For example, the EU, may take a view that, on balance, it is prepared to tolerate a no-deal to preserve the EU.
Or that the parliamentary maths makes a no-deal highly unlikely.

I can't believe that Johnson and his advisers have not gamed most scenarios, thoroughly. Therefore it is most likely that they have a number of means of delivering Brexit, which they consider to be highly likely of success, and they care less about the route, and more about the destination. And given the libertarian free-market composition of advisory teams, Spads, ministers etc I think they truly believe that the UK would prosper even under a no-deal exit and that is where we heading by design.

I wish I shared their enthusiasm, but having seen some of the policies that have come out of the ASI, Policy Exchange, as well as the various Tufton Street think-tanks and lobbyists, it looks as if we are heading for full-on corporatism, governed by ideologues with fairly extreme economic and social views. Nothing like a good dose of heroic productive achievement and egoism to fudge up the country.

 

[Rorschach]

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/co...ease-at-leos-handling-of-brexit-38351872.html

Support for his tactics has dropped from about 60% when he was dealing with May.

https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/insisting-backstop-got-us-johnson-449041


https://m.independent.ie/opinion/co...d-leo-and-simons-backstop-bluff-38351866.html

It is probably not surprising people are getting a bit nervous the closer you get to a hard Brexit and in that context a 6 point drop is not that revealing. The 2nd one I can't read as it is behind a paywall but the Eoghan Harris article is a load of tosh. He is widely ridiculed for his views and no one serious pays attention to them.

The vast majority of articles I've read indicate the only change that will be countenanced is that the backstop will morph into a NI only backstop or it will remain as is. The UK have a gun pointed at their own head and are threatening the EU with pulling the trigger.

 

[Rorschach]

So far all their plans are for checks away from the border and no hard border.

You are wrong on this. Border posts are part of preparations, with additional checks away from the border, trusted trader schemes, etc. Literally, no one wants this but it has been worked on.

 

[scaramanga]

The threat of no-deal only works (as a route to a renegotiated deal for the UK) if a) the negative impact of no-deal on the EU and/or on one or some of its members is equal to or greater than the impact on the UK and the EU and/or member state is unwillingness to tolerate or mitigate that impact and b) no-deal is a politically and practically plausible option for the UK government..

That's absolutely not true.

In any negotiation, both parties will be trying to get what's best for them. It doesn't matter whether no deal is worse for the UK or not, the EU doesn't want it, and will have to make an offer to stop it happening.