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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

It's in the GFA. If the north and south vote to reunify then that's what happens.
There's a lot of people (mainly remainers) who have made the point that putting in a hard border is against the terms of the agreement. For balance, there's been a fair few leavers making the opposite point.

If it's deemed to have broken the agreement then I don't see why we should be held to the terms of it.
 
Here's the scenarios as I see them though feel free to politely correct any omissions or errors....

#1 hard brexit > hard border > brexiters delighted > NI/Scots not delighted > no transition period > no EU/US trade agreement > border poll > breakup of the union > reunified ireland > independent scotland

#2 UK wide backstop > no hard border > nobody really delighted > brexiters really not delighted > transition period > border solution > EU/US trade agreements

#3 NI only backstop > no hard border > NI delighted > rest of UK not delighted > transition period > border solution > EU trade agreement > Scots really not delighted > breakup of the union

#4 revoke article 50


#2 is probably dead in the water. I can see no upside at all to #1 for the UK. #3 is another mess for everyone except NI.
#5 No hard border because the PMs (or whatever the Irish insist on calling their one) have both stated they won't be putting up a hard border.
 
Absolutely. Which is a reason that the ROI may put up a border on NI and then the violence will be targeted at the UK.
Why would the UK be a target, if Ireland is United the UK has no input. It would like the ira bombing Dublin just now.
 
There's a lot of people (mainly remainers) who have made the point that putting in a hard border is against the terms of the agreement. For balance, there's been a fair few leavers making the opposite point.

If it's deemed to have broken the agreement then I don't see why we should be held to the terms of it.
I haven't seen that mentioned to be honest. I doubt it is as simple as hard border = no treaty. I would imagine it is a little more nuanced than that.
 
I haven't seen that mentioned to be honest. I doubt it is as simple as hard border = no treaty. I would imagine it is a little more nuanced than that.
I don't think it's that clear cut - that's why it's debated. I believe that many of the parts of the agreement require an open border because it was always assumed that there would be one.
 
Why would the UK be a target, if Ireland is United the UK has no input. It would like the ira bombing Dublin just now.

I'm saying that ROI won't go for unification now, but rather just put up a border on NI keeping the integrity of the EU CU. And let the UK deal with the ramifications.
 
I'm saying that ROI won't go for unification now, but rather just put up a border on NI keeping the integrity of the EU CU. And let the UK deal with the ramifications.
Leo the cowardly lion has said he won't do that.

So has Boris.
 
Liverpools Mayor who is a Labourite leaves due to racism.

Corbyns mob does not seem to have a decent track record at the moment.
 
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...ts-but-not-at-border-says-goverment-1.3951392

Strictly speaking it's the Foreign Minister's name on the report, but I think we have to work on the assumption that any reports like that are government approved and he's not some crazed report writer, firing off reports to the press every 5 minutes.

I will have a Read thanks.

Americans saying no trade if GF agreement threatened

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
 
I will have a Read thanks.

Americans saying no trade if GF agreement threatened

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
Trump's repeatedly used the nuclear option and destroyed convention to get his own way. I don't like it, but I don't suspect for a second he's avoid doing so again to get this deal through.

Equally, I sincerely doubt that's anything other than a few politicians with Irish (not really Irish) electorates virtue signalling.
 
I'm saying that ROI won't go for unification now, but rather just put up a border on NI keeping the integrity of the EU CU. And let the UK deal with the ramifications.
This is exactly what will happen. The border infrastructure, customs systems, staffing etc is an exercise well underway. Coveney's comments are just managing the message for now giving the delicateness of the situation

I will have a Read thanks.

Americans saying no trade if GF agreement threatened

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
The Irish American lobby in the states is incredibly powerful and Pelosi represents the opinion of that group, and is the last word on trade deals. She is blocking the nafta replacement and that is far more significant to the US than the UK. needless to say Trump will not really care when it comes down to it. No UK trade deal means just that if the peace in NI is threatened.
 
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This is exactly what will happen. The border infrastructure, customs systems, staffing etc is an exercise well underway. Coveney's comments are just managing the message for now giving the delicateness of the situation
So far all their plans are for checks away from the border and no hard border.
 
This is exactly what will happen. The border infrastructure, customs systems, staffing etc is an exercise well underway. Coveney's comments are just managing the message for now giving the delicateness of the situation


The Irish American lobby in the states is incredibly powerful and Pelosi represents the opinion of that group, and is the last word on trade deals. She is blocking the nafta replacement and that is far more significant to the US than the UK. needless to say Trump will not really care when it comes down to it. No UK trade deal means just that if the peace in NI is threatened.

The odd thing about NAFTA is that most of the changes should theoretically benefit the US, I feel they don't want to put anything through that Trump can claim a victory on. Even Sanders supports the general basis of re-negotiating NAFTA.
 
Government putting £2b of our money into Brexit. Gove wants another half a billion to buy dead sheep we won't be able to sell. What will he do with it? Free lamb burgers at food banks?

UK manufacturing at 7 year low.

And what has changed? We are doing No Deal bluff with more vigor, and we need to believeeeeeeeeeeeee. 91 days until I lose my bet?
 
Can you paste the article? The Barclay brothers won't mind. The Telegraph is thier brexit propaganda engine.

Reading the opening of the article, Ian sunken myth looks to be lamenting. Brexit itself was amazing. Remainers spoiled it? Do you think he and his ilk would consider that Brexit itself could not deliver because it has inherent flaws?
We'll never know - we didn't get to negotiate properly because Remain cut our feet out from under us.

In the early hours of June 24, just after the result of the referendum had been announced, I stepped out on to Lambeth Bridge. The sun was just rising over the city into a clear blue sky. I can still remember, as I basked in its early warmth, just how optimistic I felt. I allowed myself a smile as I thought how bright Britain’s future looked. Free at last after all those decades from the bureaucratic tyranny of the EU, I had no doubts that the UK would thrive.

Sadly what instead followed was the aggressive and utterly negative attitude of some who voted Remain. Project Fear has continued relentlessly to describe its dystopian view of a post-Brexit UK. The Bank of England has yet again been carrying the torch for the “gloomsters”. That we now have a Government striking such an optimistic tone about our future and the opportunities of Brexit only made Mark Carney’s downbeat demeanour seem all the more remarkable.

I am intrigued that despite the number of time our institutions have got their forecasts wrong (including, how they missed the banking crash in 2018) these fearful predictions just keep coming.

As with them all, the Bank’s record doesn’t bear much scrutiny; for example in August 2016 they forecast that UK exports would fall by 0.5 per cent in 2017, yet they increased by nearly 8 per cent. Business investment was forecast to be down 2 per cent, whereas it was up approximately 2 per cent. Housing investment in 2017 they said would be down 4.75 per cent when it went up 5 per cent.

The sad truth is that after 40 years of membership the EU has eaten into the soul of so much of the establishment, from the Trade Unions to the BBC. Just reflect on how many people, who were once believers in democracy, are now determined to disregard the biggest vote in our history. For the establishment not a day goes by but that those who voted to leave are to be sneered at and disparaged as too stupid, too poor, too old and too ignorant to understand what they voted for.

Yet despite this, I, and many like me, remain positive about the future. I am not alone as seeing this moment in a similar light to the Reformation.

That first break with Rome was the making of this country. Freed from the shackles of what had become a corrupt organisation, the concept of our island nation emerged, supreme and self-governing. From that moment, our buccaneering global nature was given free rein with astonishing results as the UK grew to influence the rest of the world. On everything from free trade to parliamentary democracy and the rule of law, Britain was truly a nation that led the globe.

I believe Brexit is about us breaking from Rome again. It will become a release in a similar way and if the government believes in the incredible capacity of the British people, exemplified by their supreme entrepreneurial spirit, and sets our regulations and trade policy accordingly, the opportunities will be enormous.

Just look at how well placed we are to make the most of these opportunities. The UK came second in CEOWORLD’s Most Start-up Friendly Countries in the World Survey for 2019, the only European country in the top five. We topped Forbes’ 2018 list of countries to do business in and the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom’ said: “The UK has one of the world’s most efficient business and investment environments and will soon be open to expanded global trade relationships.”

My only nagging worry is that too many of those in their twenties and thirties have bought in to the idea that leaving the EU is about retreating into a form of isolation. This should be no surprise given that that they have been educated by so many people who subscribe to the idea that “little Britain” must cleave to the EU as the only guarantor of internationalism, cross border research and moderation.

Yet ironically, this is also the generation that, when asked, display a belief in self-reliance and a strong determination to strike out as entrepreneurs. These are the very values which will benefit them most in a free trading global Britain of the future.

That is why we have to leave the EU by October 31 this year. The biggest threat we face is not Brexit but the festering indecision which has left our society at odds with each other and our businesses unsure. By doing this we can ignite the talents and skills of a brilliant generation, to rediscover how Britain’s real place in the world is outward looking, freedom loving and an advocate for free trade, a powerful force that bring enormous benefits for everybody involved.

It is time to lift our heads up and focus on the opportunities our freedom will bring.

Iain Duncan Smith is Conservative MP for Chingford and Wood Green
 
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