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Coronavirus

Parklaner81 said:
I believe that's the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases. The hope in making that distinction being, that it would exclude the likely very very many undiagnosed mild cases which, if included, would result in a much lower overall mortality rate.

That's the story I'm telling myself, anyway.
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And moreso when you look at the number of people actually tested it's a very small number. That will include negative tests as well.

The dataset is small for such a global problem
 
elyid said:
400% agree and in my mind that's quite probable.

However, the WHO did say it's their predicted mortality rate and not just the ratio... so hopefully they are proved wrong.
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Off the top of my head 3.4% is pretty much spot on where the reported/official figures have been over the last few days.

3.4% as a forward-looking, overall prediction would be worrying, but you would logically assume that they're catching most if not all of the deaths in the figures already, whereas mild cases would surely be a very different story. That would seem to suggest a much lower overall mortality rate.

Not in any way suggesting I know better than the WHO though, obviously.
 
StephenH said:
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead is a strange decision.
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Why though? This is a classic case of picking and choosing when to listen to specialists to suit our own agendas/points of view. The government lead health scientists (Whittey etc) are all saying not to ban large gatherings etc which is the message being pushed out.

I am surprised they haven't given general guidance to at least try and work from home wherever possible, avoid travel if possible etc - it's what most sensible people would do.

People that go to Cheltenham are going there off their own free will.
 
P.D. said:
The government lead health scientists (Whittey etc) are all saying not to ban large gatherings etc which is the message being pushed out.

I am surprised they haven't given general guidance to at least try and work from home wherever possible, avoid travel if possible etc - it's what most sensible people would do.
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They discussed this at the briefing yesterday, they said that if they put measures in place too early, public get fatigued of them and start disobeying them whilst they are still needed. We are about 13 days behind Italy in terms of numbers, we can probably expect similar measures in a week to two week's time.
 
milo said:
They discussed this at the briefing yesterday, they said that if they put measures in place too early, public get fatigued of them and start disobeying them whilst they are still needed. We are about 13 days behind Italy in terms of numbers, we can probably expect similar measures in a week to two week's time.
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But we have probably had a greater 'fair warning' than Italy. That could make a difference?
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
But we have probably had a greater 'fair warning' than Italy. That could make a difference?
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We are following the same pattern of the increase in cases, just a few weeks behind. Let's hope that the correct measures, at the correct point delays things.

I see that the Chief Medical Officer has said this morning that the UK is two weeks away from its peak.
 
What I dont get is the fact that they say that 60k have recovered from virus. Does that mean that 50k havent? How many of that 50k have had it for longer then a month?
 
milo said:
They discussed this at the briefing yesterday, they said that if they put measures in place too early, public get fatigued of them and start disobeying them whilst they are still needed. We are about 13 days behind Italy in terms of numbers, we can probably expect similar measures in a week to two week's time.
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I wonder if the Spammers match will go ahead
 
Was by saddlers wells today. Very quiet it’s like people are already staying away from the City.
 
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