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Coronavirus

The thing with using some sort of certificate to show if you have had it and hence immune is that many who will be struggling and desperate will do what ever it takes to say they have one. But I do not how else they could stage normalisation. If anyone has seen any better ideas would be good to hear.
 
Listening to Matt Hanrooster on the radio a few days ago, the exit strategy seemed to be linked to the anti-body tests being available. I don't think he stated it explicitly but he seemed to be saying that once a (reliable) anti-body test can identify whether people have had the virus, then restrictions can maybe start to be lifted. Less clear whether it is just for those people or for the masses (heard something separate about some kind of certificate being provided, like with a Yellow Fever vax I guess). The trouble with that is if the plan is to lift restrictions for some but not others, it will be a recipe for disaster as discontent will rise quickly. Plus what happens to those who have not contracted the virus - just sit indoors waiting for a vaccine whilst others go about their business? I don't know what the answer is, but can't see it being that, it's simply not practical.

I think it's more a case of getting over the initial peak, use the current lockdown to avoid total burnout for the health service from lack of beds and supplies, get enough ventilators, PPE, oxygen etc in stock, as well as testing for NHS staff, and then start to lift restrictions and hope the health service can cope. It's never been so much about avoiding getting the virus, it's more about managing the impact. Things like working from home if possible, avoiding public transport, maintaining social distancing where feasible will continue to be advised for a while. Mass gatherings will continue to be prohibited.
The "good" thing with being a couple of weeks behind other European countries is that we can see what happens when they start to lift their restrictions.

The government rhetoric now speaks of “slowing the spread” rather than “squashing the virus.” As you rightly say, it’s about trying to ensure the health service isn’t overwhelmed. That’s why another lockdown later in the year is likely.
 
Sweden will be an interesting case to watch.

I'm still not convinced that politicians do put such a high value on what is a comparatively small number of lives, they just have to appear to. Telling the public a few thousand lives isn't a lot to lose is hardly a vote winner.
Different politicians will obviously differ.

A functional democracy provides some check on the worst of them at least.
 
Listening to Matt Hanrooster on the radio a few days ago, the exit strategy seemed to be linked to the anti-body tests being available. I don't think he stated it explicitly but he seemed to be saying that once a (reliable) anti-body test can identify whether people have had the virus, then restrictions can maybe start to be lifted. Less clear whether it is just for those people or for the masses (heard something separate about some kind of certificate being provided, like with a Yellow Fever vax I guess). The trouble with that is if the plan is to lift restrictions for some but not others, it will be a recipe for disaster as discontent will rise quickly. Plus what happens to those who have not contracted the virus - just sit indoors waiting for a vaccine whilst others go about their business? I don't know what the answer is, but can't see it being that, it's simply not practical.

I think it's more a case of getting over the initial peak, use the current lockdown to avoid total burnout for the health service from lack of beds and supplies, get enough ventilators, PPE, oxygen etc in stock, as well as testing for NHS staff, and then start to lift restrictions and hope the health service can cope. It's never been so much about avoiding getting the virus, it's more about managing the impact. Things like working from home if possible, avoiding public transport, maintaining social distancing where feasible will continue to be advised for a while. Mass gatherings will continue to be prohibited.
The "good" thing with being a couple of weeks behind other European countries is that we can see what happens when they start to lift their restrictions.
Antibody testing. Quick, available and frequent testing for actually having the virus, at least for key personnel.

With that shutdowns can open up. Move to different tools. Track the virus, smaller shutdowns when necessary, isolation for vulnerable groups. Potentially the need for another mass shutdown if it goes out of control again.

Vaccine the game changer, unless real herd immunity comes first somehow.
 
Probably a staged opening up of the lock down. With vulnerable people kept separate. That would be my guess.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

This is basically what Sweden are doing/Herd immunity is. Keep the old and susceptible inside, stop mass gatherings but let the young and healthy population continue their lives, spread and recover from the virus to reduce the overall risk over the long term.
Herd Immunity has become a dirty term but it will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden.
 
This is basically what Sweden are doing/Herd immunity is. Keep the old and susceptible inside, stop mass gatherings but let the young and healthy population continue their lives, spread and recover from the virus to reduce the overall risk over the long term.
Herd Immunity has become a dirty term but it will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden.

Posted this earlier in this thread; it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the Swedish approach.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oicism-lockdown-europe?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
 
This is basically what Sweden are doing/Herd immunity is. Keep the old and susceptible inside, stop mass gatherings but let the young and healthy population continue their lives, spread and recover from the virus to reduce the overall risk over the long term.
Herd Immunity has become a dirty term but it will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden.

I’ve asked this question a number of times in this thread now - but I’ll ask again.

Who are ‘the susceptible’? Smokers (10% of the population) are, according to the government today, 14 times more likely to have life-threatening complications from it than non-smokers. Those with high blood pressure are in a high risk group - that’s 25% of the adult UK population. The overweight are also at additional risk according to the government - that was 62% of the adult population in the UK according to 2014 figures.

Today’s deaths included everyone from a 5 year old to a 104 year old.

Keep everyone who is ‘susceptible’ to this virus isolated and there’s not going to be too many going about their business.

The truth is that all of us are susceptible.
 
I’ve asked this question a number of times in this thread now - but I’ll ask again.

Who are ‘the susceptible’? Smokers (10% of the population) are, according to the government today, 14 times more likely to have life-threatening complications from it than non-smokers. Those with high blood pressure are in a high risk group - that’s 25% of the adult UK population. The overweight are also at additional risk according to the government - that was 62% of the adult population in the UK according to 2014 figures.

Today’s deaths included everyone from a 5 year old to a 104 year old.

Keep everyone who is ‘susceptible’ to this virus isolated and there’s not going to be too many going about their business.

The truth is that all of us are susceptible.
My sister in law is a nurse and was saying to me that they are seeing a higher percentage of drug users in the cases in her hospital. They can't report that of course.
 
This is the great smokescreen that governments have created to try to avoid mass panic.

This virus can take anyone.

Yes, it hits the elderly, but it kills all sorts of people. The ‘underlying conditions’ thing I’ve been sceptical of for a while, once you take into account the huge variety of things included as an underlying condition (smoker, being overweight, high blood pressure...). Plenty of those dying are hardly ‘infirm’.

And there are plenty dying without any ‘underlying conditions’; and plenty who are below 60.
Surely if we have the breakdown of the numbers there is no smokescreen and we all comment based on that and strip any opinion/agenda/paranoia/fear out of the conversation?
 
Listening to Matt Hanrooster on the radio a few days ago, the exit strategy seemed to be linked to the anti-body tests being available. I don't think he stated it explicitly but he seemed to be saying that once a (reliable) anti-body test can identify whether people have had the virus, then restrictions can maybe start to be lifted. Less clear whether it is just for those people or for the masses (heard something separate about some kind of certificate being provided, like with a Yellow Fever vax I guess). The trouble with that is if the plan is to lift restrictions for some but not others, it will be a recipe for disaster as discontent will rise quickly. Plus what happens to those who have not contracted the virus - just sit indoors waiting for a vaccine whilst others go about their business? I don't know what the answer is, but can't see it being that, it's simply not practical.

I think it's more a case of getting over the initial peak, use the current lockdown to avoid total burnout for the health service from lack of beds and supplies, get enough ventilators, PPE, oxygen etc in stock, as well as testing for NHS staff, and then start to lift restrictions and hope the health service can cope. It's never been so much about avoiding getting the virus, it's more about managing the impact. Things like working from home if possible, avoiding public transport, maintaining social distancing where feasible will continue to be advised for a while. Mass gatherings will continue to be prohibited.
The "good" thing with being a couple of weeks behind other European countries is that we can see what happens when they start to lift their restrictions.
I think you're right that it'll be a mess if some can go about their daily business and some can't - the economy just doesn't work that way.

We need to get everyone back in work and do it soon.
 
Antibody testing. Quick, available and frequent testing for actually having the virus, at least for key personnel.

With that shutdowns can open up. Move to different tools. Track the virus, smaller shutdowns when necessary, isolation for vulnerable groups. Potentially the need for another mass shutdown if it goes out of control again.

Vaccine the game changer, unless real herd immunity comes first somehow.
I'm not sure going in and out of lockdown will work. It's the sharp shock of the lockdown that has already sent so many businesses under. Doing it over and again would probably be worse than extending this one.
 
Surely if we have the breakdown of the numbers there is no smokescreen and we all comment based on that and strip any opinion/agenda/paranoia/fear out of the conversation?

You only have to read the tributes to the day before’s dead in any newspaper to see that all sorts of people are unfortunately dying from this - including 40 today, according to the government, which couldn’t be pinned with any type of ‘underlying condition’. Take away the lockdown, and those figures will soon multiply very very significantly.

People seem to forget that the closest relation we have seen to this virus is SARS.
 
This is basically what Sweden are doing/Herd immunity is. Keep the old and susceptible inside, stop mass gatherings but let the young and healthy population continue their lives, spread and recover from the virus to reduce the overall risk over the long term.
Herd Immunity has become a dirty term but it will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden.
Sounds like it's the best solution anyone has found so far.
 
My sister in law is a nurse and was saying to me that they are seeing a higher percentage of drug users in the cases in her hospital. They can't report that of course.

Many will live on the street and will not be able to have great levels of hygiene. Makes sense therefore.
 
I’ve asked this question a number of times in this thread now - but I’ll ask again.

Who are ‘the susceptible’? Smokers (10% of the population) are, according to the government today, 14 times more likely to have life-threatening complications from it than non-smokers. Those with high blood pressure are in a high risk group - that’s 25% of the adult UK population. The overweight are also at additional risk according to the government - that was 62% of the adult population in the UK according to 2014 figures.

Today’s deaths included everyone from a 5 year old to a 104 year old.

Keep everyone who is ‘susceptible’ to this virus isolated and there’s not going to be too many going about their business.

The truth is that all of us are susceptible.
We can probably spare the fatties.
 
I cycled for 5 hours non stop today. Pushing through and being fit is the most important thing in my mind.

Worse thing from today. Got sunburned, yeah sunburned in England in April.
 
You only have to read the tributes to the day before’s dead in any newspaper to see that all sorts of people are unfortunately dying from this - including 40 today, according to the government, which couldn’t be pinned with any type of ‘underlying condition’. Take away the lockdown, and those figures will soon multiply very very significantly.

People seem to forget that the closest relation we have seen to this virus is SARS.
0.0016% infection fatality rate for under 10s.

That increases to a whopping 0.16% for 40-50s.

Meh.
 
I think you're right that it'll be a mess if some can go about their daily business and some can't - the economy just doesn't work that way.

We need to get everyone back in work and do it soon.
When some businesses can start partially operating again I bet quite a few 'lazy oafs' will have got quite comfy on 80% pay doing f.ck all. And when the request is put out for employees to come back...whose jumping at 20% extra pay for a full weeks work.

Just as there are the types that as soon as 'self isolation with full pay' was a thing ...there dialing it in and just trumping.
 
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