Well the point he's making is that if a team wins whilst not playing well and having top players, the likelihood is they're going to be favourites to win the majority of games no?
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"Champions of 3rd place, we know what we are"
- Thread starter 90291Spur
- Start date
Oh well no point discussing anything then
That will all be factored in too unless im mistaken - dont know why people get so bent out of shape by predictions
Kandi1977
Terry Dyson
No one is bent over. It's just that they mean fudge all. Might as well use Paul the octopus. He got most prediction right....
RunTMC
John Scales
Has someone ever asked you: What do you think of the Chelsea-Man Utd game this weekend? Who do you fancy?
You might reply: I fancy Chelsea in this one. Their recent form is good, scoring for fun, creating loads and hardly conceding. Utd seem to have gone off the boil a bit, plus they're playing away and their away form has been a bit patchy lately and they're missing their best player ( a defender) in this one. They might be higher in the table but they'll do well to even get a point.
What you've just done is a predictive analysis, using stats and info. Yeah it's not full of fancy colourful graphs and numbers but it's essentially the same thing.
Don't look at it as telling you what's going to happen because no one can see the future. But it's just another way seeing the likely outcome in something. But you're right it's not a guarantee.
Well no they don't mean fudge all, they havent just guessed - it's no different to betting companies compiling odds for matches, weighing in several different factors. Doesn't mean you should go out and put your mortgage on the outcome but it's more than worthy of discussion in a thread on the very subject
The fact that what Leicester did has happened about once or twice in the entire existence of the League suggests the opposite.
Not sure that proves anything - without the odds stacked against them Leicester are just another side who won the league, but by defying all the odds what they done is seen as a special occurance or a one off - which it was and it's the odds that show that
K.D.D.D.D.Soc
Paul Walsh
Yeah but no one has ever asked the outcome of 70 odd games over a 3 month period. Apart from City the rest of us are just hoping, making fancy charts is just like being a snake oil salesman or worse being a Lawro clone !!!!!!!
StephenH
David Ginola
You've given me a bloody headache with that reply!
alekaras
The ITK of IDK
Just cause they won a bunch of games doesn't mean they had any "form" of sorts. They were just ridiculously lucky.
greatwhitenorf
Vedran Corluka
Are you a former East German figure skating judge by any chance and gave them low marks in the style points?
As mentioned, their first eight games were against the league's softest sides. But, you can only beat what they put in front of you and they did it in some style, scoring quite a bit as well. Several four-goal games.
Maybe they were just lucky to play each half with the wind and sun at their backs and the pitch tilted toward the opposition goal like a giant bagatelle.
RunTMC
John Scales
Earlier today i was thinking, a few weeks ago there was a bit of a barney in one of the threads (may have been this one actually) when someone suggested we might be the 2nd best team in the league. Some didn't take too kindly to that suggesting it was plainly ridiculous thinking and an over-inflated opinion of ourselves.
Doesn't seem so ridiculous now. And not just based on what we've done but some of the failings of our challengers are beginning to show. With one of the easier run ins we could actually get 2nd after all!
Doesn't seem so ridiculous now. And not just based on what we've done but some of the failings of our challengers are beginning to show. With one of the easier run ins we could actually get 2nd after all!
BrainOfLevy
Michael Carrick
I wouldn't be entirely surprised. I look at the squads of United, Chelsea and Liverpool and I don't see that we should be below them. We've had the Wembley transition to deal with but I always thought those three teams were doing much better than the quality of their squad suggested they should be doing, while we were doing worse relatively speaking. But it seems to be evening out now, and hopefully the trend continues to the end of the season.
As always though when assessing these things it's important not to react too much to runs of form in particular stages of seasons, especially when placed into recent historical context. Never thought it was entirely ridiculous for us to be the 2nd best team and that still might be proved out. I have absolutely no idea how United are still 2nd!!
RunTMC
John Scales
Yep fully agree
We are the 2nd best team in the PL, we have been for two & a half seasons now. Take away the runs of form, the numbers add up, we average better than 2 points a game, with close to 2 goals a game with either the best or second best defense.
This season we have had a lot of injuries & Wembley, plus the other teams all went out and spent considerably, yet we are 4 points off second, within 4 GD of second. The Scum as a comparison is 11 points off second, and 17 GD delta.
We are a legitimate top 4 team now (despite somehow Pool & Scum being considered more realistic contenders at start of every season), we just need to make sure we deliver on that at end of seasons.
Bullet
Luka Modric
I like those line charts showing points accrued over each match-week. This helps you to see where a team eked ahead or quietly fell behind, and also shows how hard it is to claw your way back from a position of ArsAnal's low base... when those above you keep winning.
Where can I find one of those charts? It looks a bit like this but with points gained over 38 games rather than revenue
Could SteveAWOL or any similarly talented stats-guy-or-gal please calculate a rolling 38 game average over the past 5 seasons as a line chart, showing the 'big six' clubs i.e. showing our steady rise to the top of the pile when averaging over 38 games?
Where can I find one of those charts? It looks a bit like this but with points gained over 38 games rather than revenue
Could SteveAWOL or any similarly talented stats-guy-or-gal please calculate a rolling 38 game average over the past 5 seasons as a line chart, showing the 'big six' clubs i.e. showing our steady rise to the top of the pile when averaging over 38 games?
Mikey10
Pat van den Hauwe
Meh. Still think it’s all guesswork and gonads, but there you go.
alekaras
The ITK of IDK
What's amazing with the above graph is that we actually had higher revenue than Yanited back in the early 90s! If only Levy had taken over sooner...I like those line charts showing points accrued over each match-week. This helps you to see where a team eked ahead or quietly fell behind, and also shows how hard it is to claw your way back from a position of ArsAnal's low base... when those above you keep winning.
Where can I find one of those charts? It looks a bit like this but with points gained over 38 games rather than revenue
Could SteveAWOL or any similarly talented stats-guy-or-gal please calculate a rolling 38 game average over the past 5 seasons as a line chart, showing the 'big six' clubs i.e. showing our steady rise to the top of the pile when averaging over 38 games?
I like those line charts showing points accrued over each match-week. This helps you to see where a team eked ahead or quietly fell behind, and also shows how hard it is to claw your way back from a position of ArsAnal's low base... when those above you keep winning.
Where can I find one of those charts? It looks a bit like this but with points gained over 38 games rather than revenue
Could SteveAWOL or any similarly talented stats-guy-or-gal please calculate a rolling 38 game average over the past 5 seasons as a line chart, showing the 'big six' clubs i.e. showing our steady rise to the top of the pile when averaging over 38 games?
Starting with the 2015/16 season, this has the rolling total over the last 38 games played by each club:
Here starting with the previous season's points and replacing the result of the equivalent fixture as they are played:
