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"Champions of 3rd place, we know what we are"

Its a pattern because its about then they have fallen apart and have the pressure off.

In years past, when they actually had some balls, it didnt happen. They got going, and stayed the course.

Since Wenger has robbed them of any steel in the team this is what you get.

I honestly dont think its anything at all to do with gearing everything up to finishing strong. I just think its how they are.

SCBC? Probably a fair shout. Pellegrino seems to be finding a team that works and I wouldnt be at all surprised if they started to peak.

As to us, I feel at this point the difference between good and great is a very fine margin. The last couple of years, our (relatively) slow starts often have been due to points dropped by minor errors. I think if we could have started this season 5% sharper we would be in second well clear of 3rd...

I guess we will never know - because it isn't just Arsenal, it's us, it's old Fergie era Man United. Some teams noticeably finish well consistently, and I know it's easy to lump it all in with pressure or lack thereof, but I don't see how Arsenal had any less pressure to overtake us when we were 13 points ahead of them than they did when they were clear in 4th and made a late run for 3rd. It's a nice narrative that's been established, but I think the truth of the matter is they don't have the quality that they used to relative to the rest of the league. If they did, they would pull ahead in their off peak months and continue to batter teams when on peak. Same with us, if we had the quality, we wouldn't fall back so far in October/November under Poch every year, because our depth would see us through our traditionally slower months. I don't think we are mentally fragile either - I think the players truly believe they can win the league and do it soon - but we roar towards the end of the season when if we're honest the title is out of reach. Is that because there's no pressure too?

Mourinho is totally the reverse. When he won the 2015 title with Chelsea, his team were battering opponents in the early part of the season (same as both of his starts with United), but sleepwalked to the title with a much slower tempo second half of the season. It was commented on quite a lot. But he gets them playing a fast tempo early on to get a lead, then slows them down. Are they mentally fragile because they start well but don't perform as well in the second half of the season, when the pressure is on? I think we can say each team is mentally fragile because they either start well or end well, and only if they could fix the other half, they would win the league. But then it comes back to the fact that you need quality and you need depth. Otherwise, if you want to leverage a strategy, you do need to think holistically to make sure form can be as predictable as possible and that the strategies your using on the feel are appropriately derived from the squads condition.
 
Just because some teams pick up points at a certain time or other, it doesnt mean its for the same reasons.

Arsenal have changed noticeably in these respects since the composition of their team (and subsequently, mentality) has changed.

They have an expectation of winning the title, they go into every season with that aim having won the title and established themselves at that level, and year on year they have been less equipped to achieve it. The pressure they have is very different to us.
 
Just because some teams pick up points at a certain time or other, it doesnt mean its for the same reasons.

Arsenal have changed noticeably in these respects since the composition of their team (and subsequently, mentality) has changed.

They have an expectation of winning the title, they go into every season with that aim having won the title and established themselves at that level, and year on year they have been less equipped to achieve it. The pressure they have is very different to us.

Or maybe they simply have less quality than they used to, because Emirates Marketing Project and United take their best players? I'm not sure they realistically expect to challenge for the title each year. And I just think it's a bit of an easy narrative. No doubt they have some mental fragility, but I think there is some conditioning / peaking work at play. I can't prove it without Wenger coming out and giving the breakdown, but it happens every year whether they are secure in the top 4 or whether they are down in 5th or 6th. But I don't think they started this or last season with much different ambitions to ourselves, to be honest.
 
That is probably the major thing Poch needs to work on, our starts are typically brick.

Unfortunately I'm not confident about next season with a WC in summer, so many of our players will get very little rest.
Which will be the same for all other top teams too, so we're essentially all in the same boat. The key will be rotation options and a deep squad, which is what the doped teams have plenty of, so as not to tire players out too much.
 
Or maybe they simply have less quality than they used to, because Emirates Marketing Project and United take their best players? I'm not sure they realistically expect to challenge for the title each year. And I just think it's a bit of an easy narrative. No doubt they have some mental fragility, but I think there is some conditioning / peaking work at play. I can't prove it without Wenger coming out and giving the breakdown, but it happens every year whether they are secure in the top 4 or whether they are down in 5th or 6th. But I don't think they started this or last season with much different ambitions to ourselves, to be honest.

Expectations and ambitions are not the same thing.

They were regular title winners, then regular challengers, then very secure in the top 4, and now they are struggling.

There is high expectation there, and with good reason - if not sense.

What happens every year is that as soon as their top 4 spot is all but secure, but they have no chance at the title, all pressure falls away and they start playing well. Or, as soon as they have nothing to play for, same thing.

It is indicative of their mentality, not their fitness being timed to peak.
 
Expectations and ambitions are not the same thing.

They were regular title winners, then regular challengers, then very secure in the top 4, and now they are struggling.

There is high expectation there, and with good reason - if not sense.

What happens every year is that as soon as their top 4 spot is all but secure, but they have no chance at the title, all pressure falls away and they start playing well. Or, as soon as they have nothing to play for, same thing.

It is indicative of their mentality, not their fitness being timed to peak.

I mean...you're pretty sure about that. Fair enough. I'm just saying it happens when they are down in 6th or 7th and they absolutely need to get CL, and it happens when they are 3rd or 4th and we are chasing them. But I don't see how you can say being in 6th means they have no pressure, but also being in 3rd or 4th means they have no pressure. We've had the Harry 13 points ahead year. We've had the AVB negative spiral year. The pressure has been on them to overtake us, and they've done it. We've even had the 3rd in a 2 horse race year when it's looked like we're really well set.

It's a nice narrative, but you're pretty certain about saying conditioning has nothing to do with it. When it's elite sport..

In fact, I'd love to see their points averages between season halves in Wenger's early years to see if there is any correlation.
 
Its an elite sport for everyone. All teams condition themselves as best they can.

I think you are making a rather big deal out of a fairly mundane point.

Yes, of course, some teams will be better at it than others. But, Id suggest, its a case of fine margins at the top end of the table.

Mentality, however, varies wildly between clubs and managers.

"Its a nice narrative", rather patronising - and missing the point - its not the narrative, its the larger variable in the conversation.

Arsenal hit a point, pretty well every season, where its all lost. Where whatever they are playing for has eluded them. It is only then, without the weight of expectation* that they start to play. And, ironically, often play well enough for that original aim to be within reach.


*Notice how they often start the season well, when nothing is won and you just go out and play? Again, thats more a mentality thing than conditioning.
 
Its an elite sport for everyone. All teams condition themselves as best they can.

I think you are making a rather big deal out of a fairly mundane point.

Yes, of course, some teams will be better at it than others. But, Id suggest, its a case of fine margins at the top end of the table.

Mentality, however, varies wildly between clubs and managers.

"Its a nice narrative", rather patronising - and missing the point - its not the narrative, its the larger variable in the conversation.

Arsenal hit a point, pretty well every season, where its all lost. Where whatever they are playing for has eluded them. It is only then, without the weight of expectation* that they start to play. And, ironically, often play well enough for that original aim to be within reach.


*Notice how they often start the season well, when nothing is won and you just go out and play? Again, thats more a mentality thing than conditioning.

I say it's a nice narrative because it's one of those things that just gets accepted without any challenge to it. Arsenal are only good when the pressure is not on (despite them being pretty decent in Wenger's early years when they had a quality squad relative to the rest of the division?). The change has been that they don't have a quality squad relative to the very best teams any more. They went an entire season undefeated...

Put it this way, they absolutely did not expect anything more than top 4 this year. And it's still very much on for them, just like it was last year. That is the level of their pressure and ambition. Last year they went on a great run in the final stretch but didn't make it. I am pretty much certain they will do the same this year, and whether they make it depends on whether the teams above them fall down more than their form up to this point suggested they would.

What do you make of the Mourinho / Fergie dynamic? Does conditioning, rotation, and peaking have anything to do with that at all, or is it just pressure? Fergie acknowledged he had to change because of Mourinho. And just like Wenger and Poch are good finishers, Mourinho is always a fast starter, to this day. Across two different clubs.
 
I think you are mixing a bunch of points and arriving somewhere altogether different.

"Peaking", itself, is an interesting notion. Ideally, with proper squad rotation, a team will be at "peak" at all times. Thats the point of a squad.

Fergie tended to build momentum through the season. Not unlike Poch really. And he did it year after year. Mourinho brought a level of competition Fergie hadnt had in a while, and so he rose to meet the challenge. I dont know how much "peaking" had to do with any of it. Fitness is but one aspect of the game. Id argue that the competition sharpened Fergies (and Utds) mentality. They had to step up, and so they did.

I think mentality is the biggest thing in managing a top team. All other things are generally equal, or near enough, its mentality that separates the winners from the losers.

Mourinho builds a siege mentality, an intense environment, and as a result he burns teams out. He thinks its a winning thing, really its just unsustainable pressure.

Fergie was a real winner. Just hear his players talk on the TV now, Ferdinand isnt he most articulate but you can hear in his words just how important winning is. That was Fergies thing, not "we have to beat them" or "we must not lose to them" or "Everyone is against us" - it was "we need to be the best" "We need to be the winners". It was as though the opposition was incidental.

Everything then falls under this. Conditioning, training, tactics, ethics... all if it is lead by mentality.

Which is why I contest the importance you are placing on "peaking". Arsenal, like every team, are driven by their mentality - not suddenly turning into energiser bunnies thanks to some conditioning algorithm.

And when you look at Arsenal, their mentality - from the top down - the "narrative" that they play their best football when their season is over stands scrutiny.

As soon as their season, perception being the key, appears to have got away from them - the pressure lifts, they play, and get results, and suddenly they are bearing down on what they thought they lost. Which is a nice wave to ride, its easy to be motivated then.
 
Its an elite sport for everyone. All teams condition themselves as best they can.

I think you are making a rather big deal out of a fairly mundane point.

Yes, of course, some teams will be better at it than others. But, Id suggest, its a case of fine margins at the top end of the table.

Mentality, however, varies wildly between clubs and managers.

"Its a nice narrative", rather patronising - and missing the point - its not the narrative, its the larger variable in the conversation.

Arsenal hit a point, pretty well every season, where its all lost. Where whatever they are playing for has eluded them. It is only then, without the weight of expectation* that they start to play. And, ironically, often play well enough for that original aim to be within reach.


*Notice how they often start the season well, when nothing is won and you just go out and play? Again, thats more a mentality thing than conditioning.
I’m not sure that I agree with you here. It seems to me that Arsenal have a decent record in Cup semi finals and finals. Wouldn’t that suggest the opposite of what you are saying? Are you sure that their good and bad spells in the league do not just coincide with their easy and hard runs of games?.... or perhaps with key players fit/injured?
 
Usually cup finals and semis arrive at a point where they have finished the league strong and are in form.

Its a one off game, and they have nothing to lose.

Its different to 38 games of ever increasing pressure.
 
Usually cup finals and semis arrive at a point where they have finished the league strong and are in form.

Its a one off game, and they have nothing to lose.

Its different to 38 games of ever increasing pressure.
I disagree. Clubs tend to play each match as a standalone game. If Arsenal feel the pressure in a league game with (say) 12 league games still to go then they are likely to feel even more pressure in a Cup final where it really is winner takes all. How can you say there is nothing to lose in a Cup final? It makes no sense.
 
I’m not sure that I agree with you here. It seems to me that Arsenal have a decent record in Cup semi finals and finals. Wouldn’t that suggest the opposite of what you are saying? Are you sure that their good and bad spells in the league do not just coincide with their easy and hard runs of games?.... or perhaps with key players fit/injured?

Haven't their recent cup finals/semi finals been when they were the under dog and so the pressure was not on them? Prior to that the semi and final from 4 years ago were against lesser opposition and ones where they were heavy favourites and with that there was much more pressure on them to get the result? And both games (Villa and Hull iirc) they struggled in.

I agree with Nayim here and it is something i have thought myself - Wengers teams (new stadium era that is) only play when they don't have expectation/pressure on them : early season when things haven't settled - do well, talk of title challenge followed by a mid season collapse and then at the end of season when the league is away from them (and no real expectation) pick up a bit of form again.
 
Haven't their recent cup finals/semi finals been when they were the under dog and so the pressure was not on them? Prior to that the semi and final from 4 years ago were against lesser opposition and ones where they were heavy favourites and with that there was much more pressure on them to get the result? And both games (Villa and Hull iirc) they struggled in.

I agree with Nayim here and it is something i have thought myself - Wengers teams (new stadium era that is) only play when they don't have expectation/pressure on them : early season when things haven't settled - do well, talk of title challenge followed by a mid season collapse and then at the end of season when the league is away from them (and no real expectation) pick up a bit of form again.

A bit like us under Poch, no? Decent start, typically rubbish Autumn (Wenger's worst month is November), and then a strong finish.

I'm not saying mental fragility does not play a part, but I think it's pretty clear in the modern game to see top coaches try and put a bit of predictability around their form. Some are always quick starts and some are always quick finishers. It's an easy narrative, but I think it's too easy to put it all down to 'pressure'. As if getting into the top 4 from 6th is somehow less pressure than finishing 3rd from 4th. Either way, Arsenal always have a strong run at the end.
 
I think you are mixing a bunch of points and arriving somewhere altogether different.

"Peaking", itself, is an interesting notion. Ideally, with proper squad rotation, a team will be at "peak" at all times. Thats the point of a squad.

Fergie tended to build momentum through the season. Not unlike Poch really. And he did it year after year. Mourinho brought a level of competition Fergie hadnt had in a while, and so he rose to meet the challenge. I dont know how much "peaking" had to do with any of it. Fitness is but one aspect of the game. Id argue that the competition sharpened Fergies (and Utds) mentality. They had to step up, and so they did.

I think mentality is the biggest thing in managing a top team. All other things are generally equal, or near enough, its mentality that separates the winners from the losers.

Mourinho builds a siege mentality, an intense environment, and as a result he burns teams out. He thinks its a winning thing, really its just unsustainable pressure.

Fergie was a real winner. Just hear his players talk on the TV now, Ferdinand isnt he most articulate but you can hear in his words just how important winning is. That was Fergies thing, not "we have to beat them" or "we must not lose to them" or "Everyone is against us" - it was "we need to be the best" "We need to be the winners". It was as though the opposition was incidental.

Everything then falls under this. Conditioning, training, tactics, ethics... all if it is lead by mentality.

Which is why I contest the importance you are placing on "peaking". Arsenal, like every team, are driven by their mentality - not suddenly turning into energiser bunnies thanks to some conditioning algorithm.

And when you look at Arsenal, their mentality - from the top down - the "narrative" that they play their best football when their season is over stands scrutiny.

As soon as their season, perception being the key, appears to have got away from them - the pressure lifts, they play, and get results, and suddenly they are bearing down on what they thought they lost. Which is a nice wave to ride, its easy to be motivated then.

And I think you just keep saying 'no, it's nothing to do with conditioning / peaking, it's mentality', but aren't offering any reason as to why it can't be the other way. It stands scrutiny as much that it could be mentality as it does conditioning.

I can't find the quote (I guess it may have been in Fergie's book) but he has spoken before about how Mourinho made him realise he needed to start seasons faster. Obviously he's a winner. Obviously his players see him as a winner. But if he's such a winner, why was he not 'trying' to start seasons as well as he could? What was holding him back from doing that? I'd argue that he needed to tweak their conditioning so they were able to start fast, and maybe they suffer a little bit more mid-season, but at least then Chelsea haven't pulled away. Saying 'they had to step up' does not easily conflate with Fergie being a serial winner who accepted nothing less. There must have been more to it than that. Why did Fergie accept less in those early games, if it is all about mentality?

Mourinho builds a siege mentality but I am talking within a season. He always starts quickly, he did it this season and he did it last season. That is not to do with his siege mentality overall, that is how he starts seasons, as he always does. And why is that? Is he more demanding with his team talks?

Arsenal don't just turn into energiser bunnies, and frankly I used to be totally bought into the idea that Arsenal played better when the pressure was off until I learned more. And I saw what Poch was doing with us, which then made a lot of sense. Arsenal playing well with no pressure is as much a narrative that we are only able to put the pressure on rather than be the leaders. I don't buy it - if we had more quality and depth, we'd be able to get out in front. And relative to our pre-season expectations, we were absolutely way ahead of where we needed to be last season for example.

I don't think they turn into bunnies, but I think there is a noticeable difference in the tempo that teams adopt over a season. Sometimes Arsenal are ponderous, and sometimes that's because they are just bad. But a lot of the time, I think they play a higher tempo because that is the time that they have prepped to play it, and that gives them a greater chance of winning, as that does to us. But let's say they played a high tempo but couldn't sustain it over a game, because they were knackered and hadn't peaked...they'd be more likely to get picked off and not win those games, because their strategy isn't aligned to their condition. That's why I think form is predictable. Mentality is different a part of it, but I don't think everything comes underneath it. I think it is all linked. How you motivate our group depends on the players we have, and how you get them to play, and train, and condition them is all linked to what kind of players we have. It is hollistic.

I compare our games against Swansea, WBA or Bournemouth at home to our games against Everton and Man United recently and it is absolute night and day, in terms of the tempo we adopt. It is a completely different pass selection that we use, we are a lot less safe, a lot more aggressive, and we are pouring forward at every opportunity. We are more patient in some of those earlier season games, and sometimes this gets written off that we just couldn't get going, but I think it's somewhat deliberate. We play a more patient style in earlier games or when we haven't peaked, and when we play a more aggressive style, it's because we are peaking, and we know we can sustain it rather than getting picked off. And maybe now, because we're peaking, we may be able to sustain it twice in a week for example, but we absolutely couldn't do it earlier in the season. We played a high tempo vs Madrid and then a slow game against Palace where we just needed the result. But there's a big argument to say if we tried to play the same way against Palace, they could well have picked us off particularly later in the game.
 
In so much that on the face of it there is a similar pattern - doesn't mean the reasons for each is the same however

Yeeeeeeeah maybe not, but as I keep saying, Arsenal's form is predictable in so far as it has happened every season whether they are top 4 certainties or whether they need to desperately qualify because they aren't in it in March. This idea that somehow the goalposts are changing each season and so they all mentally adjust to when they can bother to start trying again just doesn't sit right with me, it's an overly simplistic view.

They battered Villa in a Cup Final, and they swarmed over Chelsea in a Cup Final. They are strong finishers whether they are favorites or not in that sense. Did they not also beat Emirates Marketing Project in the semi last year? Is that because they had pressure to beat them and desperately wanted to win a trophy, or did they have no pressure because they didn't expect anything? Again, I find the whole thing overly simplistic.
 
Yeeeeeeeah maybe not, but as I keep saying, Arsenal's form is predictable in so far as it has happened every season whether they are top 4 certainties or whether they need to desperately qualify because they aren't in it in March. This idea that somehow the goalposts are changing each season and so they all mentally adjust to when they can bother to start trying again just doesn't sit right with me, it's an overly simplistic view.

They battered Villa in a Cup Final, and they swarmed over Chelsea in a Cup Final. They are strong finishers whether they are favorites or not in that sense. Did they not also beat Emirates Marketing Project in the semi last year? Is that because they had pressure to beat them and desperately wanted to win a trophy, or did they have no pressure because they didn't expect anything? Again, I find the whole thing overly simplistic.

I explained my take on their FA Cup performances in my previous post and it ties in with mentality- favourites = struggle, under dogs = play well. You're right it is predictable and having seen the same thing any time there is some pressure on them they collapse, year after year. One of Arsenal fans major criticism of Wenger is the lack of apparent work on the training pitch in developing players or tactics as well as repeat injuries - i struggle to believe that the same person is knowingly getting them to peak at certain points - and if he was why would he continue the same thing year after year as the results get worse and worse? From title challengers to EL league placings within ten years. Id be very surprised if after ten years of Poch we'd see our league form continue down the same path/pattern unless it gets results and if it failed to get results id expect it to be addressed fairly quickly - Wenger has had over 20 years at the club, all in, and nothing changes.

You've made some reasonable points and your argument is not without logic, i just don't buy that someone would see results getting worse and worse over an extended period and not do something to address the problem(s) - i think what's likely is he is probably still doing the same training work which was part of his success ten+ years ago and doesn't really know how to change it now the team is failing.
 
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I explained my take on their FA Cup performances in my previous post and it ties in with mentality- favourites = struggle, under dogs = play well. You're right it is predictable and having seen the same thing any time there is some pressure on them they collapse, year after year. One of Arsenal fans major criticism of Wenger is the lack of apparent work on the training pitch in developing players or tactics as well as repeat injuries - i struggle to believe that the same person is knowingly getting them to peak at certain points - and if he was why would he continue the same thing year after year as the results get worse and worse? From title challengers to EL league placings within ten years. Id be very surprised if after ten years of Poch we'd see our league form continue down the same path/pattern unless it gets results and if it failed to get results id expect it to be addressed fairly quickly - Wenger has had over 20 years at the club, all in, and nothing changes.

You've made some reasonable points and your argument is not without logic, i just don't buy that someone would see results getting worse and worse over an extended period and not do something to address the problem(s) - i think what's likely is he is probably still doing the same training work which was part of his success ten+ years ago and doesn't really know how to change it now the team is failing.

Help me out here with this ‘pressure off/on reasoning’...when Arsenal played Villa in the 2015 FA Cup final, did they start the match as favourites? Was the pressure more or less on them? Because they won that match 4-0. Is 4-0 to be considered a struggle?

It’s got worse and worse because Chelsea and City got bought by oil money and we set the right long term strategy in place with Poch. Liverpool I wouldn’t say have consistently proven they are a step ahead of Arsenal but they’ve proven capable of getting above them from time to time. For what it’s worth, I do think Wenger is something of yesterday’s man. He was way ahead of his time when he arrived here, but he hasn’t shown himself to be as adaptable as Fergie. Because of that, Mourinho (who was also ahead of his time when he arrived), Poch, Klopp and City money have allowed Wenger to slip behind. But for him to ‘just change’ what is happening and get Arsenal back up to top 4 certainties, in this climate, it would require the Arsenal board to spend a lot more money, or for Wenger to change other aspects about how he goes about things with regards to not trusting average players for too long (something he seems to be accepting this season with the selling of Walcott). But there is no magic wand that Wenger will wave that will suddenly pull him ahead of at least 2 other top 6 clubs, who have either more money or better long term strategies in place.

But that kind of takes the discussion away from what peaking actually is. It’s about making form predictable and getting the maximum efficiency over a season. The alternative is to not worry about peaking, and just letting the players go for it whenever they want, and dealing with the problems later. But if you don’t establish the strategy of peaking, you can’t then derive a gameplan from it that you can leverage. If you ask the players to go hell for leather from the start of the season, and you keep asking them to do it at the end, with no allowances for the natural drops that will occur, those games at the end will likely be losses. There is a maximum amount of physicality that can be extracted over a season. You can train so that the maximum is higher (as Poch does with us, and he needed a squad full of young players to establish the culture to do that) but each squad is only going to ever have a maximum physicality per season. And it is up to managers to decide how best to use that. Some won’t bother with this peaking idea, but I’d say the top ones do. Almost all of them are either traditionally fast starters or traditionally good finishers.

Just FYI, I think what people assume is Poch’s take on sports science is the extensive training to make our maximum higher. And that’s definitely part of it, and definitely an aspect of sports science. But peaking is not a new concept. And it is different from building a higher maximum. And frankly I find it hard to believe that someone like Wenger, who was forward thinking once with his ideas on diet and fitness, hasn’t applied the concept.
 
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