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Bono and the Facebook IPO

Leeds Spur said:
Again - people projecting their behaviours onto others.

I don't go on as much as I used to, but the actual stats show people aren't leaving, they are spending more and more trime on the site and the amount of revenue per user is increasing.

We think about Facebook in the UK context but in other countries there are far higher levels of usage. The Latino community has the highest levels of penetration with 54% of all latinos on Facebook....and they use it VERY heavily.

Black and Indians as well.

And for every security conscious people there are 10 out there who haven't got a fudging scooby.
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This is a forum where people express their opinion. My opinion is based on what I have seen from past technologies from Bebo, Myspace, Msn to Yahoo to name a few. Security and privacy is not a "personal behaviour" it is a hot subject and a simple search on google will show hundreds of articles/ stories / headlines on the very topic. Just because people are not aware of it today does not mean people wont become enlightened to it tomorrow. I remember seeing privacy figures a few months back, I'll try and find it for you, showing the amount of users who only allow to share information to direct friends (have to be accepted by the user) has sharply increased.

There is no guarantee with the internet. Already FB shares have plunged and Mark Z has a growing pressure to increase revenue to keep shareholders happy.

"By late 2007 into 2008, Myspace was considered the leading social networking site, and consistently beat out main competitor Facebook in traffic. At its peak, when News Corp attempted to merge it with Yahoo! in 2007, Myspace was valued at $12 billion".

"On June 29, 2011, Myspace was sold to Specific Media and Justin Timberlake for approximately $35 million"

All within 4 years.

Leeds Spur said:
Of course.

People are stating opinions as fact though. I'm just saying I have a MA in Marketing and have alot of knowledge regarding Social Media specifically, i'd like to think that gives me some insight. Not a lot but some.

What the fudge is an opinion without backup? Just chatting inane gonad*s surely? I back my opinions up with sources, sorry if that offends you.

And regarding the grow up comment.......i'm a very big boy indeed, just ask your mum. ;)
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I work in the tech industry, have a BSc in computer science and have years experience in web based technologies and currently work for a US IT firm who can trace their roots back to the 1900's. Our company has spent $millions over the years in research. We are currently the World leader in business focused social networking and have sold our software to many of the World leaders, including Microsoft. I believe that gives me a little leeway to stand by my opinions.

Sources I have used are real World examples of companies, you can't get much more real than that.

Anyway that's enough tit for tat. You're entitled to your opinion even if I do disagree to a lot of it :-$
 
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Sheikh Ma Nuggets said:
S-1 Registration Statement: Risk Factors, Point 3

"...the rate of growth in mobile users will continue to exceed the growth rate of our overall MAUs for the foreseeable future" and then "...We do not currently directly generate any meaningful revenue from the use of Facebook mobile products, and our ability to do so successfully is unproven".

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312512034517/d287954ds1.htm#toc287954_2
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http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1859993

http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=570708

Mobiles are walking advertisment beacons. Devices that are always in close proximity of the user, packed full of data gathering information and trace the exact behavior of the user throughout the day.

If they can't find ways of building revenue today I'm sure willing to bet it's only a matter of time!
 
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THFC said:
For FB to continue it must maintain its core appeal, otherwise who would they be marketing to and thus monetising? I can see it declining as technology moves on, and the furor surrrounding privacy will do it no favours. The internet can create juggernauts like FB overnight, it can also destroy them overnight.
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Exactly, its not a safe bet. I would definetly think it will be around for some time but I am willing to bet it will lose its appeal in time (say 10 years).
 
I think Facebook has worked it's way into our daily lives in a way Myspace couldn't. The way smart-phones have become more affordable and younger people have them means that there's nothing stopping someone be on facebook constantly.

It's bloody hard to make a social networking site on this scale, google have tried and failed. Twitter for me doesn't compare, I'd suggest at least 90% of twitter users have Facebook. I don't see it as an alternative.

The advertising potential is massive as well. If Alan likes Coca Cola then everyone will see it on their timeline and there are loads of brands that will want to use this 'word of mouth' almost to promote their products and services.

Lastly, Facebook is so rich now that if a genuine competitor came alone I think facebook would just buy it and incorporate it into their own service, much like instagram.
 
Anyone else like me not have Facebook? Think social media is a load of cobblers and lots of businesses making money out of other business's feeling like they need to be part of it, but don't quite understand it, so let's throw some money at it.
 
spursman17 said:
http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1859993

http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=570708

Mobiles are walking advertisment beacons. Devices that are always in close proximity of the user, packed full of data gathering information and trace the exact behavior of the user throughout the day.

If they can't find ways of building revenue today I'm sure willing to bet it's only a matter of time!
Click to expand...

Based on what though; it's nothing but your own belief, isn't it? Because there's diddly squat in terms of evidence - and Facebook acknowledge this - to prove that any progress has been made in this area.

See, it's all good and well stating the obvious: how powerful it would be if you could harness the power of the mobile. But, it's one thing saying it...another thing entirely actually doing it. Thus far, no-one has a clue.

Facebook have flagged it as a business risk, as they rightly recognise the migration in browsing habits from desktop PCs to mobile platforms. They anticipate this growth will accelerate, and yet they admit they have nothing in place to actually monetise this switch in behaviour. That's a serious problem for them.

But hey, if you know the answer...then just give Mark a call, because I'm sure he'd love to talk.
 
My personal opinion is that Facebook will be forced to levy some sort of subscription, as it seeks to produce revenues which investors will now crave. Ideally, you'd do that via advertising - but, as people move to mobile devices, the simple fact is that you have a massively shrunk canvas to work with. Make absolutely no mistake here: if your users begin to feel like your money-making initiatives outweigh the 'experience', they'll leave. In droves. It's happened before, and it'll happen again.

The only way that the popularity of Facebook can be seriously monetised/exploited, will be through either a flat subscription or a levy on interactions, be it uploading of whatever. They'll probably deem it 'Facebook Credits' which is generally how most internet sites try to soften the idea that you're spending money with them. It'll be a gamble that the brand of Facebook has reached critical mass; the tipping point whereby something is so useful, that you don't mind paying for it. There's no obvious alternative either, so it's even more of an exclusive yet essential tool for the modern networker.

Investors are not going to wait for Facebook to tinkle around trying to make advertising work on mobiles. You can get away with letting the grass grow while you're not a listed stock, but not any more. The demand will be for revenue, and lots of it - year-on-year. Fees are coming, make no mistake. It's how they communicate that, which will either make or break them.
 
facebook credits have been around for ages, but they haven't pushed it at all really (yet). i expect that to change to a bigger push now, and more "paid" gaming to come into it.
"less than two percent of Facebook users bought virtual goods with Facebook Credits in 2011, yet it still represented 15 percent of Facebook’s revenue, primarily from just one vertical – social gaming."

will be interesting to see how it goes.
 
Surely this is only used for looking at the bird from works bikini holiday photos?

Or is that just me?.....
 
I can definitely see Facebook charging for business pages (do they do so already?). Personal use, not so sure. Surely the model would be to have as many personal users as possible and sell this aspect to the corporates. Although a Facebook Premium (similar to Linked In) may not be too far away for the next generation of upgrades.
 
Superted said:
Anyone else like me not have Facebook? Think social media is a load of cobblers and lots of businesses making money out of other business's feeling like they need to be part of it, but don't quite understand it, so let's throw some money at it.
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I used to have facebook, but then started using it for up to two hours a day. Even at work.
I eventually broke my "dependancy" and deactivated my account. I am so glad, I did. I have now seen it as a complete waste of time.
 
spursman17 said:
This is a forum where people express their opinion. My opinion is based on what I have seen from past technologies from Bebo, Myspace, Msn to Yahoo to name a few. Security and privacy is not a "personal behaviour" it is a hot subject and a simple search on google will show hundreds of articles/ stories / headlines on the very topic. Just because people are not aware of it today does not mean people wont become enlightened to it tomorrow. I remember seeing privacy figures a few months back, I'll try and find it for you, showing the amount of users who only allow to share information to direct friends (have to be accepted by the user) has sharply increased.

There is no guarantee with the internet. Already FB shares have plunged and Mark Z has a growing pressure to increase revenue to keep shareholders happy.

"By late 2007 into 2008, Myspace was considered the leading social networking site, and consistently beat out main competitor Facebook in traffic. At its peak, when News Corp attempted to merge it with Yahoo! in 2007, Myspace was valued at $12 billion".

"On June 29, 2011, Myspace was sold to Specific Media and Justin Timberlake for approximately $35 million"

All within 4 years.



I work in the tech industry, have a BSc in computer science and have years experience in web based technologies and currently work for a US IT firm who can trace their roots back to the 1900's. Our company has spent $millions over the years in research. We are currently the World leader in business focused social networking and have sold our software to many of the World leaders, including Microsoft. I believe that gives me a little leeway to stand by my opinions.

Sources I have used are real World examples of companies, you can't get much more real than that.

Anyway that's enough tit for tat. You're entitled to your opinion even if I do disagree to a lot of it :-$
Click to expand...

So you have a vested interest? Just because your business is making a bet of Facebook failing doesn't make you right.
 
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An alternative innovation I can see - as opposed to an across the board flat fee - would be an opt-in 'premium' service whereby members receive preferential deals; connecting consumers with retailers, and - in doing so - stepping out of the equation. This is a lot more effective than generic advertising.

We've all seen how popular Groupon has become which, essentially, are highly polished economies of scale. Groupon, albeit successful, uses organic means to distribute its message; email, word of mouth, virals. The same 'weight of numbers' model could be integrated into Facebook, yet - crucially - extremely tailored to your interests, so you're a lot more likely to click-through to the retailer deal you've been 'introduced' to. Facebook apply a small % to this relationship as a finders fee.

Therein, Facebook generate an annual fixed revenue stream from the exclusivity of the Premium account and also the % levy from the relationship between consumer and retailer. Popularity would drive exponential growth: more members opting-in; more retailers harnessing the marketplace; more retail relationships created.

Potentially, Facebook could blow Groupon completely out of the water.
 
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