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Politics, politics, politics

With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.

This is going to kill them in a big way
 
Grays_1890 said:
With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.
This is going to kill them in a big way
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yep - and a lot of policy that will be largely unpopular will have a manifesto mandate because they could put in mandatory euthanasia of your third born and still win in a landslide.
 
About five pages back, I broached the subject of Labour's 1945 election win, inprobable as it was. It goes to show how conventional wisdom and hubris have a nasty habit of blowing up in people's faces. As Wilson so adroitly put it, "a week is a long time in politics." Not saying The Tories will not prevail, but who knows, stranger things and all that.
 
Grays_1890 said:
With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.

This is going to kill them in a big way
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I'm feeling generous - I'll guess at them keeping 190 of their seats. They'll lose one to the SNP, a handful to the Student Party and the rest to the Conservatives.
 
SpurMeUp said:
I don't think there has been any significant change to May's poll ratings or Corbyn's. The gap was massive before as it is now. Moreover, politicians know the weaknesses of modern polls. Her decision to call a snap election has little to do with polls, as she herself outlined a few months ago - if polls were key she would already called an election some months ago.

I'd use Andrex over the DM for toilet paper. It's not well regarded, but they are a conservative paper with some insight, and they, plus others - guardian for example - were picking up on the trouble brewing for May.

I'm not sure what the election will do for anyone, but I think May is using it as an escape route. imo.
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She is calling an election because the result is as close to a dead certainty as you will ever see and her hand is far stronger in the short term than it is in the long term.

The A50 negotiations are going to be tough and most of the news will not be good over the next few years. It is best for her to get the election out of the way, give herself a larger majority so that she is less reliant on her Eurosceptic headbanger backbenchers and give herself some time the other side of leaving the EU for events to turn in her favour.
 
scaramanga said:
Both sides had the opportunity to make their case. I also don't think the electorate were swayed much by either side in the run up - there's been a steady build of anti-EU sentiment since they started power grabbing when they played "When is a treaty not a treaty?" (Answer: When it looks like the EU might lose a referendum on it).
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Most "outers" whould not know one end of an EU treaty from a banana!

It was a vote to stop immigration, nothing more nothing less with the vast proportion of outers. Which is mildly amusing as it will not make a blind bit of difference. But we can all relax as the bent carrots will now be allowed to be put on supermarket shelves!
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
Brexit has fired a lot of voters up. They might seek to punish the Tories. If I was Corbyn, I'd play the tricky, untrustworthy May card. You know, a bit of lying Hillary.
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I think that the issue only motivates a minority of voters and Corbyn has done his best to make it hard for voters who oppose Brexit to vote Labour.

During the last few elections the poll on who would make the best Prime Minister has proved more accurate than the party polls. If that is true this time, Labour's fate will be even worse than many are predicting.
 
galeforce said:
spare a thought for the Russians, they have to work out which clusterfudge to favour
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We'll Farage and Corbyn both follow the Kremlin line and would do the most to destabilise the country, so that is where their support will go.
 
scaramanga said:
According to YouGov (the first place I looked) the gap over Labour has gone from 12 points at the end of July to 21 points - that's a massive difference.


Do they have much insight? Genuine question - I don't think I can remember them breaking any inside stories for some time.


If so then she's picked a terrible time to do it. As I said earlier in the thread, she could spend the next couple of months stamping on babies' heads and still come out comfortably ahead of Corbyn.
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4 months ago, not July last year, was when May categorically ruled out a snap election. Her lead was as it is today.

I think they did have some insight on this. Not only them, it seems trouble has been brewing, and many many were aware, even the daily fail.

Maybe May knew she had to change things now, but hasn't worked out the next steps. It might help stall EU actions too, while she lines up her ducks. The trajectory she was on was calamitous, the UK falling off a cliff and the conservatives splitting down the middle. She's just bought herself some time and space. If she's re-elected, she might be able to run on her own mandate, or she may find another way to get around the impossible brexit task.
 
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milo said:
She is calling an election because the result is as close to a dead certainty as you will ever see and her hand is far stronger in the short term than it is in the long term.

The A50 negotiations are going to be tough and most of the news will not be good over the next few years. It is best for her to get the election out of the way, give herself a larger majority so that she is less reliant on her Eurosceptic headbanger backbenchers and give herself some time the other side of leaving the EU for events to turn in her favour.
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I'm not so sure. Why U-turn then on her clear statement 4 months ago? Her lead hasn't changed. What has?
 
SpurMeUp said:
4 months ago, not July last year, was when May categorically ruled out a snap election. Her lead was as it is today.

I think they did have some insight on this. Not only them, it seems trouble has been brewing, and many many were aware, even the daily fail.

Maybe May knew she had to change things now, but hasn't worked out the next steps. It might help stall EU actions too, while she lines up her ducks. The trajectory she was on was calamitous, the UK falling off a cliff and the conservatives splitting down the middle. She's just bought herself some time and space. If she's re-elected, she might be able to run on her own mandate, or she may find another way to get around the impossible brexit task.
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I think that it was always her intention to call an early election but that she wanted to get A50 notification out of the way first so that she could claim to have delivered the will of the people.
 
SpurMeUp said:
4 months ago, not July last year, was when May categorically ruled out a snap election. Her lead was as it was today then.

I think they did have some insight on this. Not only them, it seems trouble has been brewing, and many many were aware, even the daily fail.

Maybe May knew she had to change things now, but hasn't worked out the next steps. It might help stall EU actions too, while she lines up her ducks. The trajectory she was on was calamitous, the UK falling off a cliff and the conservatives splitting down the middle. She's just bought herself some time and space. If she's re-elected, she might be able to run on her own mandate, or she may find another way to get around the impossible brexit task.
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Her lead is bigger now than it has been at any time during her leadership. A couple of points could easily be the difference between needing some of the rebel backbenchers or not - that's a very real consideration when choosing when to call an election.

4 months ago May and Hammond hadn't been restrained by someone else's manifesto promises regarding NI and TV license costs. They hadn't had the Lords making much needed Grammar School changes difficult. Now she has the opportunity and the need to get her own manifesto in and take the opportunity to stop relying on those intent on blocking her.
 
milo said:
Because she was lying four months ago.
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Politicians never ever want to willfully be seen to U-turn. I don't think she would have categorically ruled out an election, to so quickly U-turn, if it was her intention all along. Any politician worth their salt would have fudged the question instead "I don't foresee any reason to call an early election" for example. Yet May clearly ruled it out. So I don't think she was purposefully lying. I think her situation became untenable, and something had to give - a split in the conservative party, brexit negotiations...or an election.
 
SpurMeUp said:
Politicians never ever want to willfully be seen to U-turn. I don't think she would have categorically ruled out an election, to so quickly U-turn, if it was her intention all along. Any politician worth their salt would have fudged the question instead "I don't foresee any reason to call an early election" for example. Yet May clearly ruled it out. So I don't think she was purposefully lying. I think her situation became untenable, and something had to give - a split in the conservative party, brexit negotiations...or an election.
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In a Trump world U turning is fine

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