Politics, politics, politics

[milo]

Politicians never ever want to willfully be seen to U-turn. I don't think she would have categorically ruled out an election, to so quickly U-turn, if it was her intention all along. Any politician worth their salt would have fudged the question instead "I don't foresee any reason to call an early election" for example. Yet May clearly ruled it out. So I don't think she was purposefully lying. I think her situation became untenable, and something had to give - a split in the conservative party, brexit negotiations...or an election.

I don't think that she decided to call an election over the Easter weekend. May is far too indecisive to do that.

This has been on the cards for a while and the Tories would have been planning for a summer election since before Christmas.

She has shown several times with Brexit that she is quite comfortable doing about turns.

 

[the dza]

So, quick GG poll. Who you gonna vote for?

I'll be voting Labour.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I think that the recent figures show that she's unlikely to ever be in a stronger position no matter what the outcome. Leave it long enough and Labour have to eventually get their act together and replace Corbyn - even they can't continue like this.

This is probably peak election time and barring a complete campaign screw up (not putting this past the Conservatives, I've seen first hand their ability to self-destruct a few times) they should walk a large majority. Why leave it open to chance by delaying?

The boundaries will be redrawn in 2018 considerably in their favour. They are prolonging the pro-Labour boundaries till 2022 now.

 

[SpurMeUp]

"I'm not going to be calling a snap election. I've been very clear..." May's words.

 

[Gutter Boy]

So, quick GG poll. Who you gonna vote for?

I'll be voting Labour.

Bus-Pass Elvis Party

 

[milo]

With the in fighting at Labour they wont be able to mobilise on the same hymn sheet.

This is going to kill them in a big way

Labour will stand on the 2015 manifesto with a couple of populist additions (free school meals and £10 minimum wage) which they will mostly be able to support.

The problems for Labour MPs is what do they say when interviewers ask them who will make the best PM because we know that the majority do not think that it is Corbyn.

Labour are also in for 7 weeks of Corbyn's past voting record, who he's shared a stage with and his views on the IRA being dragged across the front pages.

The challenge for the Labour Party is that their policies are far more popular with the electorate than their leader. How do they get the policies heard without them being tainted by Corbyn?

 

[StephenH]

Labour!

In spite of Mr Muddle!

 

[SpurMeUp]

I don't think that she decided to call an election over the Easter weekend. May is far too indecisive to do that.

This has been on the cards for a while and the Tories would have been planning for a summer election since before Christmas.

She has shown several times with Brexit that she is quite comfortable doing about turns.

Yet your post above is all about how an election changes things for Brexit, and could give May a mandate to deliver a softer Brexit. So why not attribute her clear U-turn to this rather than making the claim that May was purposefully deceiving the populace, which doesn't make sense?

 

[SpurMeUp]

If Labour stick to towing the Brexit line, Lib Dems will be right back in the mix as the third party because of their stance on the EU.

48%, a third of the population voted for remain! Lib Dems will do well if Labour sit on the brexit fence.

 

[milo]

Yet your post above is all about how an election changes things for Brexit, and could give May a mandate to deliver a softer Brexit. So why not attribute her clear U-turn to this rather than making the claim that May was purposefully deceiving the populace, which doesn't make sense?

I don't think there is anything in my previous post that wouldn't have been clear before Christmas or last summer. Opposition from the Conservative backbenches was a far bigger problem for May than from the official opposition. Calling an early election weakens the position of both.

 

[milo]

If Labour stick to towing the Brexit line, Lib Dems will be right back in the mix as the third party because of their stance on the EU.

48%, a third of the population voted for remain! Lib Dems will do well if Labour sit on the brexit fence.

I suspect that only about half of that 48% would consider changing their vote to stop or get a moderate Brexit.

I would expect the Lib Dems to recover a lot of the seats that they lost last time around and their local election results have been outstanding since last summer.

I think that Farron is a competent media performer and the Lib Dems normally get a bounce when they get equal coverage to the other parties.

On the other hand, they will be lucky to get through the campaign without discussion on Farron's religious views and his opposition to abortion. He's a pretty illiberal liberal.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I suspect that only about half of that 48% would consider changing their vote to stop or get a moderate Brexit.

I would expect the Lib Dems to recover a lot of the seats that they lost last time around and their local election results have been outstanding since last summer.

I think that Farron is a competent media performer and the Lib Dems normally get a bounce when they get equal coverage to the other parties.

On the other hand, they will be lucky to get through the campaign without discussion on Farron's religious views and his opposition to abortion. He's a pretty illiberal liberal.

'only' 24% of the people who voted. Only. Almost a quarter of people who vote...that's huge!

I've always found the lib dems to be on the fence, and rather dull. They were consigned to insignificance recently. Now, if they are the only English party who campaign on staying in the EU, they will be back big time. They could clean up in London if they get their message right.

If it looked viable I would vote for them. Would you? The Labour party are a joke. No hope there...what other options are there?

 

[milo]

'only' 24% of the people who voted. Only. Almost a quarter of people who vote...that's huge!

I've always found the lib dems to be on the fence, and rather dull. They were consigned to insignificance recently. Now, if they are the only English part who campaign on staying in the EU, they will be back big time. They could clean up in London if they get their message right.

If it looked viable I would vote for them. Would you? The Labour party are a joke. No hope there...what other options are there?

It depends on how that 24% voted last time and where they live. It is only swings from the Conservatives to Lib Dems that are really going to make any difference.

I would expect the Lib Dems to do well in SW London. Labour should put Khan at the front of their campaign in London and would probably do well off the back of it.

The interesting thing is that the current split is authoritarian vs liberal and rural/suburban Vs metropolitan. Outside of Devon, Cornwall and SAW London where will the Lib Dems make inroads that are not already non-Tory seats.

 

[SpurMeUp]

It depends on how that 24% voted last time and where they live. It is only swings from the Conservatives to Lib Dems that are really going to make any difference.

I would expect the Lib Dems to do well in SW London. Labour should put Khan at the front of their campaign in London and would probably do well off the back of it.

The interesting thing is that the current split is authoritarian vs liberal and rural/suburban Vs metropolitan. Outside of Devon, Cornwall and SAW London where will the Lib Dems make inroads that are not already non-Tory seats.

We could see some kind of shabby lib-lab alliance if its a close vote. If only there was a credible alternative to the conservatives. How can a democracy have such a shower of zhit options to vote for? No wonder ukip, trump etc are doing well. They represent something fresh and different (even tho fascism is really same old too). Populism is just a cry for fresh assertive leaders imo. What do we have? May or Corbyn. What is going wrong? Do we pay MPs enough? Or attract decent visionary people into politics? There is a crisis in western politics and its caused by the dull hubris of traditional parties in my opinion.

 

[the dza]

I'm part of the 48%. I have voted in 3 general elections; twice for Lib Dems (Kennedy and Clegg) once for Labour (Miliband). The Lib Dems sold us out to a coalition with the Tories, I would never vote for them again, regardless of what happens with Labour or Brexit.

 

[milo]

We could see some kind of shabby lib-lab alliance if its a close vote. If only there was a credible alternative to the conservatives. How can a democracy have such a shower of zhit options to vote for? No wonder ukip, trump etc are doing well. They represent something fresh and different (even tho fascism is really same old too). Populism is just a cry for fresh assertive leaders imo. What do we have? May or Corbyn. What is going wrong? Do we pay MPs enough? Or attract decent visionary people into politics? There is a crisis in western politics and its caused by a lack of fresh people and fresh ideas imo.

I think that Corbyn and his supporters are too tribal to enter into an electoral pact. Purity of beliefs is important to them. I genuinely think that Corbyn would prefer to lead a Labour party in opposition with 150 MPs who agreed with him rather than being a Prime Minister who had to make compromises.

 

[milo]

I'm part of the 48%. I have voted in 3 general elections; twice for Lib Dems (Kennedy and Clegg) once for Labour (Miliband). The Lib Dems sold us out to a coalition with the Tories, I would never vote for them again, regardless of what happens with Labour or Brexit.

For me Brexit overrides everything else. It sets the tone for the type of country that we will be for decades to come. Support for a referendum on the outcome of negotiations will probably be the deciding factor for me at this election.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I'm part of the 48%. I have voted in 3 general elections; twice for Lib Dems (Kennedy and Clegg) once for Labour (Miliband). The Lib Dems sold us out to a coalition with the Tories, I would never vote for them again, regardless of what happens with Labour or Brexit.

Presumably you'd vote for a pro-brexit Labour party then?

This election could be decided by how Labour set out their stall on the EU. I am struggling to find any reason to vote Labour. Individually, I like Labour MPs. My local MP, where I work, Diane Abbot was amazing, helped us sort out the local council, gave me more time than I'd thought possible. But to govern the country? They're a fuking shambles. People who read the Sun for their politics won't vote for them. People who care about politics probably won't vote for them. Just old school 70s era socialists.

 

[the dza]

I think that Corbyn and his supporters are too tribal to enter into an electoral pact. Purity of beliefs is important to them. I genuinely think that Corbyn would prefer to lead a Labour party in opposition with 150 MPs who agreed with him rather than being a Prime Minister who had to make compromises.

Speaking for myself (as a Corbyn supporter) I would not be against an electoral pact that stops a Tory government.

 

[SpurMeUp]

For me Brexit overrides everything else. It sets the tone for the type of country that we will be for decades to come. Support for a referendum on the outcome of negotiations will probably be the deciding factor for me at this election.

Obviously manifestos to be set out etc...but you would consider a lib dem vote? I agree with you. Party politics has little bearing on the country. Ministries have a new Minister with a pet project, but the underlying initiatives don't change massively even when switching from Labour to Conservative. Exiting the EU and the single market - now that is a genuine change with real implications.