Politics, politics, politics

[r-u-s-x01]

I haven't seen much evidence of the EEA countries wanting to exit it. Have I missed something?

Swiss are trying to curtail free movement and have been told in no uncertain terms no

 

[r-u-s-x]

Unless someone like Le Pen wins France, I just don't see why EU do these deals. They have stated that free access will involve free movement at every opportunity. The CETA deal has no real access for Financial Services, which is what we need.

I keep coming back to the conclusion that for the EU there is no long term benefit fro giving us privileged access, so either Freedom of movement or the same as all others not in the EU.

 

[scaramanga]

EFTA has the same freedom of movement as EU - the leave campaign was focused on restricting freedom of movement, if we have to listen to "the will of the people" surely this is the line in the sand? Either that or we can ignore the will of the people and just not enact article 50.

"Free movement of persons is one of the core freedoms of the European Internal Market. This area is covered by Article 28 of the EEA Agreement, Annex V on the Free Movement of Workers and Annex VIII on the Right of Establishment. Accordingly, nationals of the EEA EFTA States (Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) have the same right as EU citizens to take up an economic activity anywhere in the EU/EEA without being discriminated against on the grounds of their nationality. Equally, EU citizens have the right to work and reside in the EEA EFTA States. Non-economically active persons such as pensioners, students and family members of EEA nationals are also entitled to move and reside anywhere in the EU/EEA subject to certain conditions as set out in the relevant EU legislation"

There have been noises from Germany (the only country that really matters) and now from the likes of Lord Kerr that there is a deal to be done on freedom of movement and it will likely involve us doing our part for security along with a membership fee similar to our current net contribution.

 

[r-u-s-x]

OK I have been proved wrong a lot over the past few elections but everything I am reading, including coming out of Germany, is that freedom of movement is a key pillar and they are getting more entrenched in that opinion due to the bell ends Johnson & Davis doing their global comedy routine.

 

[scaramanga]

OK I have been proved wrong a lot over the past few elections but everything I am reading, including coming out of Germany, is that freedom of movement is a key pillar and they are getting more entrenched in that opinion due to the bell ends Johnson & Davis doing their global comedy routine.

This (and similar pronouncements from Merkel) is what kicked it all off:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...m-movement-comments-theresa-may-a7418981.html

So we'd have to have free movement of people who were full EU citizens, but we could put a delay on new entrants and restrictions on benefits is the general idea being pushed about.

When it comes to immigration we have a strong hand as we have a massive "fudge you guys, I'm going home" button. Both Germany and France are very, very scared of the possibility of a few million EU citizens turning up in Calais at once.

 

[milo]

Swiss are trying to curtail free movement and have been told in no uncertain terms no

Norway has an emergency handbrake and the Swiss have the right to advertise jobs for Swiss nationals. So it would be wrong to say that there are no differences to EU membership on free movement.

 

[milo]

When it comes to immigration we have a strong hand as we have a massive "fudge you guys, I'm going home" button. Both Germany and France are very, very scared of the possibility of a few million EU citizens turning up in Calais at once.

Please can you run that by me again. Are you saying that the largely economically active EU citizens living in the UK returning to the content is less attractive than our largely economically inactive pensioners who have retired overseas returning here?

 

[Gutter Boy]

You are looking at least ten years after exiting for something like that. I think that first a strong business case for a move like that needs to be made, without it, the case for as close to status quo as we can get is overwhelming.

Just go to WTO and have both sides pay the tariffs. Other than agriculture at 18%, they generally aren't that high - 3-4%

That will also enable us to stop us having to charge/pay tariffs to the rest of the world, so will balance out fairly quickly

 

[scaramanga]

Please can you run that by me again. Are you saying that the largely economically active EU citizens living in the UK returning to the content is less attractive than our largely economically inactive pensioners who have retired overseas returning here?

If they're here they have jobs and are a net benefit to the country.

If a few million turn up in Calais at once without jobs (not that we'd want that either, but we have to have a nuclear option) then they're going to massively damage the EU economy. For a few years at least.

 

[milo]

If they're here they have jobs and are a net benefit to the country.

If a few million turn up in Calais at once without jobs (not that we'd want that either, but we have to have a nuclear option) then they're going to massively damage the EU economy. For a few years at least.

That seems a pretty unlikely scenario to me and not one that I would expect to play a major part in negotiations. I would expect protecting the rights of UK citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK to be one of the first things to be agreed in A50 negotiations. It is hard to see much progress being made until this has been settled.

 

[milo]

Just go to WTO and have both sides pay the tariffs. Other than agriculture at 18%, they generally aren't that high - 3-4%

That will also enable us to stop us having to charge/pay tariffs to the rest of the world, so will balance out fairly quickly

I'm not aware of an economist who agrees with this assessment.

Regardless of the size of tariffs, the administrative burden and non-tarrif barriers would have a significantly negative impact on British business.

 

[milo]

Norway has an emergency handbrake and the Swiss have the right to advertise jobs for Swiss nationals. So it would be wrong to say that there are no differences to EU membership on free movement.

@r-u-s-x I should have also said that Switzerland are not in the EEA.

 

[scaramanga]

That seems a pretty unlikely scenario to me and not one that I would expect to play a major part in negotiations. I would expect protecting the rights of UK citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK to be one of the first things to be agreed in A50 negotiations. It is hard to see much progress being made until this has been settled.

Us actually doing it is incredibly unlikely, just like the EU removing our access to the market is.

But both options have to be there to keep the dissenters with more extreme opinions from taking the argument in their direction.

 

[r-u-s-x]

IMO in all negotiations the Finance sector will be the key driver, this is why I think we are in a weak negotiating position.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Unless someone like Le Pen wins France, I just don't see why EU do these deals. They have stated that free access will involve free movement at every opportunity. The CETA deal has no real access for Financial Services, which is what we need.

I keep coming back to the conclusion that for the EU there is no long term benefit fro giving us privileged access, so either Freedom of movement or the same as all others not in the EU.

Financial services only make up 8% of our economy and 2.5% of our workforce. They have just been moaning the loudest/have too many politicians in their pockets. Throw them under the bus if it works for the other 92% of the economy.

 

[Gutter Boy]

This (and similar pronouncements from Merkel) is what kicked it all off:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...m-movement-comments-theresa-may-a7418981.html

So we'd have to have free movement of people who were full EU citizens, but we could put a delay on new entrants and restrictions on benefits is the general idea being pushed about.

When it comes to immigration we have a strong hand as we have a massive "fudge you guys, I'm going home" button. Both Germany and France are very, very scared of the possibility of a few million EU citizens turning up in Calais at once.

I think the Germans are more scared of their electorate's response to the ever increasing financial burden of propping up southern Europe. They are losing the second biggest/only other big net contributor to the EU budget. War guilt only goes so far - we've already seen that with the kick back against Merkel's immigration policy.

I think they'd take a deal on a limited strings pay-for-access deal.

 

[r-u-s-x01]

Financial services only make up 8% of our economy and 2.5% of our workforce. They have just been moaning the loudest/have too many politicians in their pockets. Throw them under the bus if it works for the other 92% of the economy.

It's not the amount of people but who is working their, do you see this government throwing the city under the bus, all their mates and family will be out of work

 

[Gutter Boy]

That seems a pretty unlikely scenario to me and not one that I would expect to play a major part in negotiations. I would expect protecting the rights of UK citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK to be one of the first things to be agreed in A50 negotiations. It is hard to see much progress being made until this has been settled.

I think even Farage would rather keep the hardworking French in London and Poles in Lincolnshire, than have the Costa del Sol empty its bowels of criminals and geriatrics back on us

 

[r-u-s-x]

just a quick google but it appears as though London pays a third of the tax

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/07/london-top-taxpaying-city-uk-report

and 10% is attributed to the City of London

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...bill-hits-highest-since-financial-crisis.html

The City of London Corporation, the public body that represents the capital’s financial centre, said the sector represented 11pc of all government tax receipts in the year to March 2015, down from 13.9pc in 2007 and 11.5pc the previous year.

Without the financial sector being as strong I imagine this will be greatly reduced -

 

[milo]

IMO in all negotiations the Finance sector will be the key driver, this is why I think we are in a weak negotiating position.

I agree. I think that the immediate response from the EU to our desire to limit immigration will be for them to limit access for our financial services.