Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[MartyFunkhouser]

Just to chime in, racist people are a bit dim in the first place and if they are voting reform solely based on what they think is going to happen if they win, just highlights the fact.

Reform, if they win will be one of massive disappointment for those people who think like that. Reform cannot flick a switch and change the mess that we currently see in society. But my biggest concern with reform is the unknown entity of the economic plan. The social reform aspect is a known agenda on their behalf, but their economic figures don’t stack up to date.

Nigel Farage though like him or loathe him is a very smart operator who knows how to get people listening.

Politics has defaulted though like life in general to a lack of interest meaning less focus and people voting for a strap line rather than deep ideals and policy. Farage is the king of it..........Brexit was a one slogan headline popper IMO that had people voting for the idea, its effective, like Make America Great Again..........and Reform have gone the same way with their message about immigration. IMO there is no way they can stop the boat, you can't turn them back, stop them, tow them to the middle and all the guff I have read, but people have bought it, in that respect they have been massively in tune with how people are consuming their views and impacting their voting intentions.

It has also been aided by how sh1t Labour and the Tories have been, absolutely no doubt.......But Farage and his world class communication skills has got people on side, now if that means he is fit to run a country or even wants to...........I have serious serious doubts

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

So they need at least 81Labour MPs to force a leadership contest. But those 81 have to all be behind one contestant.

Is that doable?

 

[MartyFunkhouser]

So they need at least 81Labour MPs to force a leadership contest. But those 81 have to all be behind one contestant.

Is that doable?

Doesn't look like it IMO, unless its coordinated. Suppose we will know later as Wes in meant to be resigning

 

[glasgowspur]

Just to chime in, racist people are a bit dim in the first place and if they are voting reform solely based on what they think is going to happen if they win, just highlights the fact.

Reform, if they win will be one of massive disappointment for those people who think like that. Reform cannot flick a switch and change the mess that we currently see in society. But my biggest concern with reform is the unknown entity of the economic plan. The social reform aspect is a known agenda on their behalf, but their economic figures don’t stack up to date.

Nigel Farage though like him or loathe him is a very smart operator who knows how to get people listening.

The big problem is that Reform will be hopeless which gives the bigger parties an excuse to carry on doing what they are doing.
There can be very few voters happy with the situation, there must be change, Reform are not the answer and they are not going to change political culture.
That is the biggest problem.

 

[Glenda's Legs]

So they need at least 81Labour MPs to force a leadership contest. But those 81 have to all be behind one contestant.

Is that doable?

Streeting could resign and issue his challenge now, and then he will be given a certain amount of time set by the NEC to get his 81 votes, as well as then allowing others to enter the race.
You'd imagine if he does challenge he must feel he has enough "we're not declaring now but will do if you challenge" MPs in the background to get him close to the required number, with intense lobbying for the remainder within the given timeframe.
He's kind of hamstrung really - if he doesn't move soon, it leaves the door part open for a Burnham return-and-challenge.
And if Burnham is not back, then Rayner is now in a position to put herself forward.

 

[Rorschach]

Streeting would be another mistake.

 

[monkeybarry]

So they need at least 81Labour MPs to force a leadership contest. But those 81 have to all be behind one contestant.

Is that doable?

Absolutely. They are a united party, in a united country, with clear objectives.

 

[johnola]

The big problem is that Reform will be hopeless which gives the bigger parties an excuse to carry on doing what they are doing.
There can be very few voters happy with the situation, there must be change, Reform are not the answer and they are not going to change political culture.
That is the biggest problem.

I have it different. The old parties are tied up in knots, and cannot/will not live up to their manifesto promises because of existing legal frameworks and a lack of will from backbench rebellions.

Reform are a shoe-in and they will be at war with the civil service and the losing radicals, meanwhile the bond market moderates expenditure reviews.

 

[monkeybarry]

Streeting would be another mistake.

Why do you think so?
I'm uncertain.
There is something about him I really don't like, but he does deliver well and has a bit of aggression about him.
I think he's be better than Burnham - who won't be accepted; he'll just come across as anointed rather than elected. That shouldn't fly at any time - it definitely won't fly in current times.

 

[monkeybarry]

I have it different. The old parties are tied up in knots, and cannot/will not live up to their manifesto promises because of existing legal frameworks and a lack of will from backbench rebellions.

Reform are a shoe-in and they will be at war with the civil service and the losing radicals, meanwhile the bond market moderates expenditure reviews.

I can't see an overall majority at the next GE.
There is also a lot to happen in three years.
Reform have a problem - they have three years to weed out the people that post nazi symbols and talk about melting Nigerians to fill potholes and find suitable replacements. Can they do the latter without just looking like the Tories?
They also have to perform at local level now - which is almost impossible.
If they get power as minority (which is likely), if they don't address my first point we'll just see a year Reform MPs resigning or losing the whip, thus creating a complete hung parliament.
That might be the catalyst to a move to coalition governance and electoral reform. Or it might just crash the economy. Possibly both.