As long as there is nothing more incriminating in the documents that will soon be released about the vetting of Mandelson (as well as possibly the comms with the US about Mandelson’s appointment) then I think Kier Starmer will survive, but he will be clinging on until the next perceived scandal or backtrack. The vultures are circling and his position is hugely weakened but I don’t believe any potential challenger really wants to do so ahead of the May local elections. Better to come in afterwards on a promise to put things right rather than being the one in charge when it all goes wrong. (And I am not convinced there is anyone with the necessary gravitas to replace him).
I do believe Starmer has had the right intentions and I really wanted him to succeed but he is simply not cut out for frontline politics. Ironically that should work in his favour, being different from the usual careerist politicos, but sadly these days trying to play a straight bat doesn’t cut it. Conversely, I also believe he was willing to turn a bit of a blind eye to the Mandelson- Epstein relationship in order to achieve the necessary outcome of good relations with Trump. So the straight bat is not quite so straight.
As
@Rorschach said above, his only potential safety net is jettisoning McSweeney. But that will be no more than a short term solution, (and is dependent on McSweeny - and Mandelson - willingly stepping back and not rocking the boat).
It’s a huge shame because for all the imperfections with Starmer’s government, it is still head and shoulders above what we have had for the previous 14 years.