But if the result of your policies are that a) companies stop investing and hiring b) spending continues to go up which is what we're seeing now then bang goes your growth. Ultimately we have a spending problem and no one seems to want to admit it, we borrow something like £200m per day just to keep the country running - I don't know how people think that's sustainable and the bond markets don't because rates are still pretty high.
That being said I do think borrowing costs are likely to come down anyway as globally economies are doing badly and will likely roll over within the next year or 2.
I think the OBR thing, the press conference, the continual leaks, late budget leading to more speculation over what's going to be in or out has been handled really badly and the criticism is valid. Why give a press conference to basically say income tax is going up then backtrack for example - as I said it's clear they've broken the manifesto but try and use some clever wording to get around it which no one believes. The reason their headroom was lower is because of the choices this government has made, they can't keep blaming everyone else. They u turned on winter fuel, welfare, raised inflation, gave out big pay rises while requesting nothing in return.
Have you read this?
https://observer.co.uk/news/politics/article/economic-with-the-truth-the-mis-selling-of-the-budget - not exactly a smooth operation.
If this is a 5 year program for government, the policies outlined in the budget aren’t going to be the only policies they put forward in order to spark more growth. And even so, didn’t they beat the growth projections by 50%?
Borrowing costs will come down because of the headroom Reeves has now put in place. Does she earn any credit for that whatsoever?
I absolutely agree it’s choices that they made. I say earlier in the thread they need to reform welfare. But they are the government, they are elected. If they want to spend on lifting kids out of poverty, they get to do that. Equally, if they want to leave themselves 20bn of headroom (when they’d be criticised to the hilt for leaving less headroom, and when it will have the benefit of lowering UK borrowing costs) then they can do that too.
What would you have liked them to request when giving pay rises to, I assume you’re referring to doctors? Train drivers? What conditions should the government have gotten? I hear this all the time, and it feels like a stick to beat the government with because a ton of strikes got sorted. When private sector wages went up and public sector wages didn’t, I see why they did it.
Lastly I’m not going to defend the leaking. I’m frankly bemused at what has happened. I’m bemused that some government minister apparently thinks it helps them to brief The Times that they weren’t informed enough about the budget, as if briefing anonymously does them any good whatsoever. The whole thing is weird. I think the government wanted to float potential income tax rises, to then say on the day because of their decisions they no longer have to. So I think some of the leaking was the government, some of the leaking was not from them. It was a mess. But it makes no sense that Reeves would hold that press conference and then leak her own rabbit.
I think in general there’s something very odd about the media at the moment. It’s extremely hostile to the government, and I can’t work out whether it’s because it’s Labour, or whether it’s because in this social media age everything needs to be treated like a scandal to drive engagement, and any government of the day would get it. I respect everyone’s opinions on politics, and I can always see all sides on the substance of reasonable policy choices. I cannot for the life of me understand why this Reeves thing is such a scandal today. Cameron and Osborne told the UK that a global financial crisis was Labour’s fault for not fixing the roof while the sun was shining. They told that story in order to enact heavy cuts to the state. On the substance, I’m not sure why that’s any different to what we see today. Either they’re all liars, so it’s equal. Or it’s all just politics, so it’s fine. But it seems every single day there’s some conferred ‘scandal’ or ‘chaos’ about this particular government, and I just don’t buy that it’s half as bad as is being made out.
