*** OMT: Spurs vs Sunderland*** Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Sunday 4th January, 3pm

[Finney Is Back]

Xg only measures shots, if your players are messing up the final ball in good areas due to poor technique (as described in the post you have responded to) then that stat doesn't tell the whole story does it

So, as I said, we didn't create enough chances to win by 3-0 and we don't create enough chances to win 3-0 in any game. Every team in the world will have occasions when a different option could be taken or a better pass could be played to create a chance.

The cold hard facts are that on average we create enough chances for less than 1 goal a game (XG of 19.2) and give up enough chances for just over 1 goal a game (XGA of 25.7).

https://www.fotmob.com/en/leagues/47/table/premier-league?filter=xg

The good news is that it seems our current general is a lucky general.... In the fact that we are outperforming all of our XG, XGA and Expected points so far this season (which means we may get worse as we regress to the mean).

 

[Finney Is Back]

X

XG relates to chances, not positions. Thats the argument, in great positions several times but was unable to turn that into chances due to the poor play by the players.

If we've got poor players who can't make the most of good positions then I would've thought we need to make sure we get into those positions more often not less often. Despite the fact that Frank has us playing very defensively overall our XGA is 6.5 higher than our XG.

 

[Muttley]

Mate - we hadn't won a trophy for 17 years. We hadn't won a european trophy for 40 years. Any manager that can go 5th and then win a trophy the following season has done a fantastic job for Spurs.

That wasn't my point. My point is that the club shows strong foundations when our league position is stable year to year and we're fighting for these type of competitions as well.

The fragility at our club right now is actually quite worrisome.

 

[billyiddo]

So, as I said, we didn't create enough chances to win by 3-0 and we don't create enough chances to win 3-0 in any game. Every team in the world will have occasions when a different option could be taken or a better pass could be played to create a chance.

The cold hard facts are that on average we create enough chances for less than 1 goal a game (XG of 19.2) and give up enough chances for just over 1 goal a game (XGA of 25.7).

The point being made was that we got ourselves in to threatening positions in the attacking third which should have seen us create really good chances, but poor technical play from our players saw us not capitalise on them - this in contrast to other games this season where we did not have the type of numbers forward and the same kind of positional advantage. Yesterday was an example of moves breaking down because of our players vs our tactical approach not giving us the opportunities to hurt the opposition enough.

Xg doesn't even factor in to the discussion other than to highlight how poor we were at making something out of the good positions we found ourselves in.

And therein lays the problem with just looking at stats.

 

[Finney Is Back]

The point being made was that we got ourselves in to threatening positions in the attacking third which should have seen us create really good chances, but poor technical play from our players saw us not capitalise on them - this in contrast to other games this season where we did not have the type of numbers forward and the same kind of positional advantage. Yesterday was an example of moves breaking down because of our players vs our tactical approach not giving us the opportunities to hurt the opposition enough.

Xg doesn't even factor in to the discussion other than to highlight how poor we were at making something out of the good positions we found ourselves in.

And therein lays the problem with just looking at stats.

It is the same for both sides though. Every single team in every single country can point to numerous times in the game when they don't make the most of a situation. If we don't create enough chances it is nobody's fault but our own. Our XG this season shows that we are creating nowhere near enough chances and are actually quite lucky to have scored as many goals as we have. If we regress to the mean (as is statistically likely) then we'll be doing even worse than we are now. We scored 1 goal yesterday, exactly the number of goals that we should've scored.

 

[billyiddo]

It is the same for both sides though. Every single team in every single country can point to numerous times in the game when they don't make the most of a situation. If we don't create enough chances it is nobody's fault but our own. Our XG this season shows that we are creating nowhere near enough chances and are actually quite lucky to have scored as many goals as we have. If we regress to the mean (as is statistically likely) then we'll be doing even worse than we are now. We scored 1 goal yesterday, exactly the number of goals that we should've scored.

Yeah, agreed - however the point of the discussion from my side was why.

In yesterday's game I felt it was the players not doing the basics right enough when in threatening positions. That's a change from previous games where the argument can be levelled at tactics not putting us in those positions enough.

 

[DubSpur]

I think we are talking about different things tbh. I think I understand your view better now and tbh we don't disagree in application where I think we differ is in the result of the application. For instance you blame the poor attacking quality on an unfamiliarity with playing that way this season whereas I saw the same problems evident last season and the season before so I don't believe the solution is just play more aggressively as I don't actually think that's the main issue.

I blame the poor attacking quality on a system being used that doesn't allow any attacking. The way you're going on about the players you'd think they were non-league players. They're not world class but they're decent premier league players and the young players have the potential to be world or near to world class players. The system isn't getting the most out of them. Do they have the quality to win or compete for the league? No, but they have the quality to show more than they are being allowed to. Enough to have us at least competing for the European positions in what is a poor league.
I'd rather see the manager implement a system that has a chance of long term success even if it's not going to win us anything immediately. Without playing a proper system it's really hard to gauge where we are. After that it's up to ENIC to show they will support in the transfer market and improve the weakest areas of the team (team, not squad).

 

[thfcsteff]

We have Muani. Who played centre forward for Juventus last season.

Indeed. Why not have put Richy left, Muani CF, Odobert right for example? I still cannot fathom how he feels the need to always pair Bentancur with Palhinha when they are on the pitch together, especially yesterday when first-half, Bentancur looked like he was enjoying having a little more progressive freedom.

 

[DubSpur]

Mate, we'll never adequately replace Kane. Partly because he is an absolute superstar and that is pretty much irreplaceable and partly because the club don't really have that level of ambition to really try to do so.

There's maybe a handful of players in the world that could replace Kane (not directly, he's unique) and we will never attract that level of player. Only way is to buy one before their break through.

 

[Mrs Vert]

I really, really, really don't see how 5th in PL and then winning the Europa League could be considered anything other than a massive success?

It is a success. But it it still ended up failure cos we didn't even stick with someone who won something! (I did want him gone tho!!) This club is funny . Along with Utd.

 

[thfcsteff]

Jumping from a Europa League team to a Champions League team is a tough thing to do. Redknapp and then Pochettino allowed Spurs to make that jump. After Poch had managed us for 2 or 3 years we were at the level where we could attract real top talent as we were seen as a bona-fide Champions League club. The problem was that the owners didn't want to capitalise on that (and their investment growing from about £100m to about £3b) and inject funds to allow us to raise our wage bill and buy those real top players.

We're now back at the stage where we're not really seen as a bona-fide Champions League club and the best players don't want to sign for us, instead holding out for genuine top clubs to come in for them (see Eze, Hincapie, Semenyo, Rodrygo, Diaz, etc).

We therefore need to find a great director of football who has a brilliant model for finding good players at the level below a Premier League Europa League level club (that could be Lange perhaps), and align them with a really clever (probably young) coach with a dynamic way of playing and try to get ourselves back into being considered a bona-fide CL level club again and at that point not make those same mistakes we did last time.

Bravo and well articulated.

 

[Muttley]

There's maybe a handful of players in the world that could replace Kane (not directly, he's unique) and we will never attract that level of player. Only way is to buy one before their break through.

lol - we'll we've certainly be doing that in recent years. We seem to buy a 16 or 17 year old striker every 3 months.

 

[thfcsteff]

A long time since I have seen a player look less interested in playing for us; and he looks unable to do even the basics. Not sure if that’s due to apathy or lack of skill - whichever, he looks bloody awful when he features.

I think his best position is either a narrow three or as a second striker off the CF. When he is able to drift in between the channel/10/CF spots, he is really effective. If we had a passer in midfield, if we even bothered to try and progress play through the middle, I think we’d really see his effectiveness as he picks up the ball in those pockets and links/drives really well IMO. When paired with Richy he’s been really good.

 

[thfcsteff]

Xg only measures shots, so if your players are messing up the final ball in good areas due to poor technique (as described in the post you have responded to) then that stat doesn't tell the whole story does it

…an allowance I agree with (tis one of the reasons I think XG is a flawed statistic) yet a courtesy I have not seen extended to other managers…

 

[totalspurs]

Yeah, agreed - however the point of the discussion from my side was why.

In yesterday's game I felt it was the players not doing the basics right enough when in threatening positions. That's a change from previous games where the argument can be levelled at tactics not putting us in those positions enough.

Yes that's true, but that was only in the first half. The second half we went into a defensive shape for the whole half (not for phases, but the entire 2nd half), just because the opposition stepped forwards.

That's what I can't tolerate.

I'm sitting there thinking oh this looks good, we are playing attacking football, and trying to create chances around the opposition box. Then 2nd half starts and it the boring defensive brick, again. I'm really fed up watching us play at the moment. I can excuse the poor final balls, from the 1st half, as it's a new manager and it takes time to fully click, I get that. But I hate us playing defensive tactics, especially for a whole half. The shape and tactics are all wrong for me. I don't want spurs to be a proudly defensive team, (in phrases for game management is ok, but not for the whole half of a match.

All my life (52 years) Tottenham Hotspur are known as an attacking team, defensively suspect, but attacking football.

 

[billyiddo]

Yes that's true, but that was only in the first half. The second half we went into a defensive shape for the whole half (not for phases, but the entire 2nd half), just because the opposition stepped forwards.

That's what I can't tolerate.

I'm sitting there thinking oh this looks good, we are playing attacking football, and trying to create chances around the opposition box. Then 2nd half starts and it the boring defensive brick, again. I'm really fed up watching us play at the moment. I can excuse the poor final balls, from the 1st half, as it's a new manager and it takes time to fully click, I get that. But I hate us playing defensive tactics, especially for a whole half. The shape and tactics are all wrong for me. I don't want spurs to be a proudly defensive team, (in phrases for game management is ok, but not for the whole half of a match.

All my life (52 years) Tottenham Hotspur are known as an attacking team, defensively suspect, but attacking football.

I think there's some mitigation here - we're off the back of the busy Christmas period and in the midst of a run of 6 games in 2 weeks - we can't run our players in to the ground, we've seen what happens there. Maybe if we didn't already have 4 or 5 attacking players absent we would have taken a different approach in the second half

 

[SpurMeUp]

...and fans always believe that when momentum shifts, it was the manager that ordered us to be more defensive. Which most likely is simply not the case. Frank didn't sit them down at HT and say, guys stop attacking and drop deep. How obsurd do some fans sound, attributing the shift soley to the manager?

Sunderland are no mugs, they came out second half, pushed men forward, and reacted to the managers team talk. They stopped trying to play deep themselves. As it was they didn't get all that many openings, and we were a little unlucky. Since the first game of the season, we've have issues in the final third missing Son, Kulu, Maddison and Solanke from last season; and integrating Simons and Muani from abroad.

Frank is doing a fair job under the circumstances, and he deserves some credit for Odobert and Tel starting to look decent. As as well as Bentancur looking like a proper midfielder again.

Maybe if we can add a left winger and get Solanke and Udogie back in the side, we'll just about have enough. But selling Johnson without a replacment was small time. We were clearly stretched in attack already. Baffled by that one. I don't think even Levy sanctions that transfer. All proper clubs sell when they have a replacment.

 

[Baleforce]

...and fans always believe that when momentum shifts, it was the manager that ordered us to be more defensive. Which most likely is simply not the case. Frank didn't sit them down at HT and say, guys stop attacking and drop deep. How obsurd do some fans sound, attributing the shift soley to the manager?

Sunderland are no mugs, they came out second half, pushed men forward, and reacted to the managers team talk. They stopped trying to play deep themselves. As it was they didn't get all that many openings, and we were a little unlucky. Since the first game of the season, we've have issues in the final third missing Son, Kulu, Maddison and Solanke from last season; and integrating Simons and Muani from abroad.

Frank is doing a fair job under the circumstances, and he deserves some credit for Odobert and Tel starting to look decent. As as well as Bentancur looking like a proper midfielder again.

Maybe if we can add a left winger and get Solanke and Udogie back in the side, we'll just about have enough. But selling Johnson without a replacment was small time. We were clearly stretched in attack already. Baffled by that one. I don't think even Levy sanctions that transfer. All proper clubs sell when they have a replacment.

Agree with the first bit.

Don't agree on the second though, we got good money for Johnson, and we know how limited he is, an out of position Tel or Odobert offer as much in that role imo.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Agree with the first bit.

Don't agree on the second though, we got good money for Johnson, and we know how limited he is, an out of position Tel or Odobert offer as much in that role imo.

I agree on Johnson untimately. But until a replacment is signed we have scant cover. Settled attacking players are in short supply! Who else is a settled attacker in our squad? Richarlison and.....?

 

[Baleforce]

I agree on Johnson untimately. But until a replacment is signed we have scant cover. Settled attacking players are in short supply! Who else is a settled attacker in our squad? Richarlison and.....?

we can put one of the kids there if needed, Xavi is back now too, Kulu getting closer

it made long term sense