Tim Sherwood…gone \o/

[braineclipse]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

i've got a masters in this and no matter what the data shows with that guys chosen methodology i dont care.....i prefer what i am seeing now and it would take long to get something together to prove we are doing better now not down to the luck of the green but through a tactical shift

Is the argument being presented that we're not doing better now than under AVB?

I must have missed that part. I thought the point being raised was that according to an imperfect, but objective, measure of luck we've been getting a bit lucky with results in the league matches under Sherwood so far.

 

[indianspur]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

But we clearly weren't. I can name the games on one hand where that was the case, the rest of the time it was dour football where we were bailed(not Baled, that was the previous season) out thanks to fortunate penalties, own goals, centre backs hitting 30 yard half volleys into the bottom corner, stoppage time winners. What we were doing under AVB was completely unsustainable, a team with a 15:21 goals record should've been well in the bottom half, it was GOOD luck that we weren't, not bad. AVB's gameplan was to squeeze the life out of the game, if he could win it 50.01 to 49.99(I'm not talking about possession here) then he was thrilled, it was awful, the cracks were getting bigger and bigger and the walls well and truly came crashing down at home to Liverpool. I'm glad that chancer is gone.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

i've got a masters in this and no matter what the data shows with that guys chosen methodology i dont care.....i prefer what i am seeing now and it would take long to get something together to prove we are doing better now not down to the luck of the green but through a tactical shift

So let me get what you're saying: do you mean you think we are doing better now due to a tactical shift and NOT due to the rub of the green?
Or are you saying we are doing better due to the rub of the green?

 

[billyiddo]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

my thoughts on the last few pages summed up in the following spoiler :

Spoiler

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Is the argument being presented that we're not doing better now than under AVB?

I must have missed that part. I thought the point being raised was that according to an imperfect, but objective, measure of luck we've been getting a bit lucky with results in the league matches under Sherwood so far.

can you quote the part of my post that made you make this post above?

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

So let me get what you're saying: do you mean you think we are doing better now due to a tactical shift and NOT due to the rub of the green?
Or are you saying we are doing better due to the rub of the green?

the first one. changes in tactics / instructions are whats leading to better performances

 

[braineclipse]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

can you quote the part of my post that made you make this post above?

"to prove we are doing better now not down to the luck of the green but through a tactical shift"

Were you not comparing now to the time under AVB?

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

"to prove we are doing better now not down to the luck of the green but through a tactical shift"

Were you not comparing now to the time under AVB?

yes i was actually but i mean that i thought that we are doing better now NOT due to luck but due to changes made. the point isnt to argue what i consider a fact that we are doing better now but more the reason why....which goes against the idea that the reason AVB didnt do well was because of luck..as in he had bad luck...which i would assume the assumption is that TIm sherwood doesnt have

 

[milo]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I think that the reasons we are performing better under Sherwood are (in no particular order):

• Adebayor's good form
• Lennon's good form
• Finding a (couple of) role(s) for Eriksen
• Rose's return
• A kind run of Premier League games
• Getting more men forward
• We were caught in a bit of a rut and a change of manager has helped get us out of it
• A little bit of luck

 

[harr1984]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Sorry but you make your own luck and to suggest AVB was unlucky compared to the more lucky Sherwood is hilarious. I loved AVB but he made some to put it politely questionable decisions and ultimately paid the price. Sherwood has shown common sense with his selections and general tactics and has been reaping the benefits. We had the players, now they're being utilised properly. This PDO stuff might be a nice read, but wouldn't entertain it....

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Mr Scara if your head is in the oven and your feet are in the freezer is your mean temperate comfortable?

I admire the loyalty of your arguments, and this PDO bolocks is interesting even if it is ultimately limited (imo), but you have pulled out all the stops here - focusing on Sherwood's intelligence, his class, to a stat that can apparently show he has simply been lucky and AVB unlucky. I take my hat off to you. That's dedication and makes for some interesting discussions.

The notion that we can measure luck and put a number to it is fascinating, but flawed certainly for football.

If you check back through my post history you'll see that I was posting about regression to mean and how unlikely changing managers having an effect on performance is.

All of that before Timmeh becoming manager was even a whisper in Levy's ear.

 

[braineclipse]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

yes i was actually but i mean that i thought that we are doing better now NOT due to luck but due to changes made. the point isnt to argue what i consider a fact that we are doing better now but more the reason why....which goes against the idea that the reason AVB didnt do well was because of luck..as in he had bad luck...which i would assume the assumption is that TIm sherwood doesnt have

Yes, the idea being presented is that we've been a bit lucky in the process whilst picking up what is it, 16 out of 18 points(?) in the league under Sherwood.

I think that the reasons we are performing better under Sherwood are (in no particular order):

• Adebayor's good form
• Lennon's good form
• Finding a (couple of) role(s) for Eriksen
• Rose's return
• A kind run of Premier League games
• Getting more men forward
• We were caught in a bit of a rut and a change of manager has helped get us out of it
• A little bit of luck

Apart from the absolutely outrageous omission of the man, the myth, the legend that is Bentaleb in this I agree.

 

[milo]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Apart from the absolutely outrageous omission of the man, the myth, the legend that is Bentaleb in this I agree.

Quite right.

In the minus column not having Sandro or Verts available are big losses, as is Paulinho. Any manager would be pleased with our results having lost such important players.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Would it be remiss of me to counter the fact that all team regress with the actual facts. That is for the first 6 games of this season we were basically at mean (ranging between 100.8 and 99.8) and from then on moved away from the mean almost every week, ending at 93.6 (based on Sh/Sv% (or 86.7 based on SOT%/SOTC%), with our PDO going away from the mean after 8 of the final 10 games under AVB.

Only if you fall to mention the fact that we've swung from a massive outlier one way to a massive outlier the other. And that outliers are incredibly unlikely to do anything other than regress to mean eventually.

 

[braineclipse]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Quite right.

In the minus column not having Sandro or Verts available are big losses, as is Paulinho. Any manager would be pleased with our results having lost such important players.

For sure. Both the results and performances I would say. Particularly when you consider that we were in quite a mess and had a packed fixture list ahead of us when he took over in addition to the injuries.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

It is basically just someone trying to use their view of some flawed statistics and assumptions to show the fact that even though we were playing poor under AVB, and our shooting and saving %'s were rubbish under AVB, that is was all just down to pure luck, and he would have turned it all around, and his view that AVB was our saviour therefore continues and Sherwood is a lucky chancer, rather than have to admit that AVB just had the team and individuals under-performing, getting worse each week, and currently Sherwood has them over-achieving and creating better chances, and improved results. The argument is just not credible.


And by the way I do have a masters degree in statistics, so I am certainly in my comfort zone

That's not what the stats or I am saying. In fact neither I nor the stats have compared our performances under AVB and Timmeh.

What the stats do show is that under AVB, we accrued fewer points than our performances suggested we should have. They also show that under Timmeh we have accrued far more points than we have any right to expect from our performances so far.

There's no comparison there, no 'one is better than the other,' simply statements if fact about points accrued compared to the best measures of performance we can use.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Sorry but you make your own luck

No you don't. Luck doesn't exist, random, unconnected events do.

Sometimes those random unconnected events all line up one way, sometimes they all line up the other. Most of the time they're scattered all over the place.

When you take out (almost) everything that's controlled, what's left is (mostly) those events.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

If you check back through my post history you'll see that I was posting about regression to mean and how unlikely changing managers having an effect on performance is.

All of that before Timmeh becoming manager was even a whisper in Levy's ear.

Interesting. I can'#t say I understand fully. So the average or mean between shots and saves tends to stay stable?

The question about an oven and freezer can be used to illustrate how a mean stat can be meaningless (excuse the pun). Chances will possibly average themselves out as games ebb and flow and teams try and get parity when losing etc. But if you don't differentiate chances in some way (e.g. 1 to 5 with one end being a sitter) any insight from such stats appear limited.

 

[Mulletperm]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I think that the reasons we are performing better under Sherwood are (in no particular order):

• Adebayor's good form - due to TS
• Lennon's good form - due to TS?
• Finding a (couple of) role(s) for Eriksen - due to TS
• Rose's return
• A kind run of Premier League games
• Getting more men forward -due to TS
• We were caught in a bit of a rut and a change of manager has helped get us out of it
• A little bit of luck

Why not just say the main reason we're performing better under Sherwood, is Sherwood?

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Interesting. I can'#t say I understand fully. So the average or mean between shots and saves tends to stay stable?

The question about an oven and freezer can be used to illustrate how a mean stat can be meaningless (excuse the pun). Chances will possibly average themselves out as games ebb and flow and teams try and get parity when losing etc. But if you don't differentiate chances in some way (e.g. 1 to 5 with one end being a sitter) any insight from such stats appear limited.

That's not quite it, no.

In the article we're talking about, the author compares PDO to the SOTR (shots on target ratio) which turns out to be a pretty good measure of how much a team is controlling a game, how much better that team is playing than the opponent, how likely that team is to win if the same match is played a bunch of times (to make random events less significant).

If your PDO is outperforming your SOTR then you are doing better than you should expect from your performance and you're vanishingly unlikely to keep up that outperformance if it's up in the 130s where Timmeh currently is. If it's the other way around then (if you repeated each match a load of times and did exactly the same things) you would expect more points than you actually accrued.

This is the case with Timmeh/AVB.