* The official 2025/26 Premier League thread *

K.D.D.D.D.Soc · 2026-03-21T09:04:11+0000

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain said:
Atwell & Pawson worse than useless lastnight !!
United have gone big moaning so no doubt will get lots of decisions until the end of the season to make up for it

I have sympathy for United after generations of their teams getting away with everything it comes as a massive cultural shock to find you start getting decisions you don't benefit from.

SteveAWOL · 2026-03-21T12:18:42+0000

@Baleforce is that you voting for ASSnal as your preference to be PL champions? Can’t believe 8% of Spurs fans would be so despicable!

Baleforce · 2026-03-21T13:50:29+0000

SteveAWOL said:
@Baleforce is that you voting for ASSnal as your preference to be PL champions? Can’t believe 8% of Spurs fans would be so despicable!

View attachment 21899

Not me. As long as it’s not the dippers I don’t care.

DeanoAustin · 2026-03-21T15:21:25+0000

Baleforce said:
Not me. As long as it’s not the dippers I don’t care.

Anyone to win the league but The Dippers, Woolwich or Chelsea in that order. I’d throw West Ham in next but I take the “list of hate” seriously.

Kandi1977 · 2026-03-21T15:55:16+0000

SteveAWOL said:
@Baleforce is that you voting for ASSnal as your preference to be PL champions? Can’t believe 8% of Spurs fans would be so despicable!

View attachment 21899

Why do Evertonians want Arse to win?

Baleforce · 2026-03-21T15:58:45+0000

Kandi1977 said:
Why do Evertonians want Arse to win?

the others are northern?

Arteta maybe?

SteveAWOL · 2026-03-21T16:50:34+0000

Kandi1977 said:
Why do Evertonians want Arse to win?

They still love Arteta as much as they do Richarlison.

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain · 2026-03-21T17:36:21+0000

Manchester United to complain to PGMO after Amad Diallo denied penalty and Harry Maguire sent off in 2-2 draw with Bournemouth

Kandi1977 · 2026-03-21T17:48:23+0000

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain said:
Manchester United to complain to PGMO after Amad Diallo denied penalty and Harry Maguire sent off in 2-2 draw with Bournemouth

United complaining about penalties. That's hilarious! They've had 37 since we last got a pen in the PL.

Kandi1977 · 2026-03-21T19:07:16+0000

Go Cheatski!

BrentwoodSpur · 2026-03-21T19:34:41+0000

Kandi1977 said:
Go Cheatski!

They’ll be melting down tonight. Wonder if Rosenior survives the season

Kandi1977 · 2026-03-21T19:54:34+0000

BrentwoodSpur said:
They’ll be melting down tonight. Wonder if Rosenior survives the season

MartyFunkhouser · 2026-03-21T20:06:20+0000

BrentwoodSpur said:
They’ll be melting down tonight. Wonder if Rosenior survives the season

He is ridiculous, proper oddball

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain · 2026-03-21T20:25:33+0000

BrentwoodSpur said:
They’ll be melting down tonight. Wonder if Rosenior survives the season

No chance, the Professor will be gone by Monday I reckon
First time they have lost 5 in a row in 33 years

Robbo · 2026-03-21T20:34:11+0000

If he can hang on until May 17th, we'll throw him a lifeline.

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain · 2026-03-22T08:02:14+0000

Run-In Analysis (Key Insights)

1) Head-to-Head “6-Pointers” Will Decide Survival

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest (22 Mar)
Tottenham vs Leeds (9 May)
West Ham vs Leeds (Final Day)

These are not just matches — they are direct point swings (effectively 6-point games).

Leeds are involved in two of them late in the season, which gives them control over their own fate.

2) Fixture Difficulty (Hardest → Easiest)

Hardest Run-In: West Ham

Arsenal, Villa, Brentford, Palace — all awkward or top-half sides
Only one “clear” favourable fixture (Everton H)

Second Hardest: Nottingham Forest

Chelsea (A), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H), Villa (H)
Mix of top and mid-table — limited easy points

Moderate: Tottenham

Fairly balanced, but:
- No obvious “easy wins”
- Multiple away fixtures + pressure games

Easiest on Paper: Leeds

Wolves (H), Burnley (H), Bournemouth (A)
Two relegation rivals + winnable mid-table fixtures
Leeds likely have the most favourable run-in structurally

3) Momentum Windows (Where Survival Can Be Won/Lost)

Leeds

Critical stretch: 18 Apr → 2 May
- Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H)
  Could realistically take 7–9 points

Tottenham

Pressure spike late:
- Villa (A) → Leeds (H)
  If they drop points before Leeds game, that becomes a must-win decider

West Ham

Brutal late run:
- Brentford → Arsenal → Leeds
  Could arrive on final day needing a result

Nottingham Forest

Defining stretch:
- Chelsea (A) → Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H)
  Likely 0–3 points zone, high risk of being cut adrift

Bottom-Line Assessment

Leeds = Best positioned (fixtures + control via head-to-heads)
West Ham = Most dangerous run-in (fixture difficulty)
Tottenham = Volatile (balanced fixtures but high-pressure games)

Nottingham Forest = Highest risk (tough opponents, fewer “easy wins”)

1) Expected Points Simulation (Run-In)

Assumptions:

Home advantage ≈ +0.4 goals → higher win probability
“Top teams” = low probability (0–1 pts), mid-table = ~1–1.5 pts, relegation rivals = 1.5–2.5 pts
Blended expected value per fixture

Leeds United

Fixture Type	Games	Expected Points
Favourable (Wolves, Burnley, Bournemouth)	3	5–7 pts
Difficult (Man Utd, Spurs, West Ham)	3	1–3 pts
Total Projection	6	6–10 pts (likely ~8)

Tottenham

Fixture Type	Games	Expected Points
Balanced (Brighton, Wolves, Sunderland)	3	3–5 pts
Difficult (Villa x2, Leeds pressure game)	3	2–4 pts
Total Projection	6	5–9 pts (likely ~7)

West Ham

Fixture Type	Games	Expected Points
Tough (Arsenal, Villa, Brentford, Palace)	4	2–4 pts
Winnable (Everton, Leeds)	2	3–4 pts
Total Projection	6	5–8 pts (likely ~6)

Nottingham Forest

Fixture Type	Games	Expected Points
Very tough (Chelsea, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Villa)	3	1–2 pts
Winnable (Burnley, Sunderland)	2	3–4 pts
Toss-up (Spurs)	1	0–1 pts
Total Projection	6	4–7 pts (likely ~5)

2) Relegation Probability (Relative Model)

This is a relative probability model (not absolute odds), assuming all four are in the bottom cluster:

Team	Survival Chance	Relegation Risk
Leeds	65–75% survive	25–35%
Tottenham	55–65% survive	35–45%
West Ham	45–55% survive	45–55%
Nottingham Forest	30–40% survive	60–70%

Key driver:

Leeds have both fixture quality + control via head-to-heads
Forest lack both

3) Likely Survival Points Threshold

Typical Premier League safety line:

34–36 points = danger zone
37–39 points = likely safe

Adjusted for this season (tight cluster assumption):

Projected safety line: ~37 points

What Each Team Likely Needs

Team	Likely Current Range*	Points Needed	Verdict
Leeds	~29–31	+6 to +8	Very achievable
Tottenham	~30–32	+5 to +7	Tight but doable
West Ham	~28–30	+7 to +9	Difficult run-in
Forest	~26–29	+8 to +11	Requires overperformance

*Estimated typical standings for this scenario

Final Strategic Read

Leeds: Best-positioned — multiple “winnable clusters” + direct control games
Tottenham: Fine margins — one bad result swings pressure heavily
West Ham: Fixture difficulty likely caps ceiling → vulnerable
Forest: Need an upset (Chelsea/Saudi Sportswashing Machine) or they’re relying on others failing

harr1984 · 2026-03-22T08:08:53+0000

The above is no better than the infamous super computer. At this stage of the season previous form becomes irrelevant, you see it every season - teams that look dead and buried go on a run and teams who look safe/doing well spiral downwards.

One of the most pointless exercises in football is looking at games at the business end of the season and predicting them. One game at a time....

K.D.D.D.D.Soc · 2026-03-22T09:10:19+0000

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain said:
View attachment 21909

Run-In Analysis (Key Insights)

1) Head-to-Head “6-Pointers” Will Decide Survival

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest (22 Mar)

Tottenham vs Leeds (9 May)

West Ham vs Leeds (Final Day)

These are not just matches — they are direct point swings (effectively 6-point games).
Leeds are involved in two of them late in the season, which gives them control over their own fate.

2) Fixture Difficulty (Hardest → Easiest)

Hardest Run-In: West Ham

Arsenal, Villa, Brentford, Palace — all awkward or top-half sides

Only one “clear” favourable fixture (Everton H)

Second Hardest: Nottingham Forest

Chelsea (A), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H), Villa (H)

Mix of top and mid-table — limited easy points

Moderate: Tottenham

Fairly balanced, but:

No obvious “easy wins”

Multiple away fixtures + pressure games

Easiest on Paper: Leeds

Wolves (H), Burnley (H), Bournemouth (A)

Two relegation rivals + winnable mid-table fixtures
Leeds likely have the most favourable run-in structurally

3) Momentum Windows (Where Survival Can Be Won/Lost)

Leeds

Critical stretch: 18 Apr → 2 May

Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H)
Could realistically take 7–9 points

Tottenham

Pressure spike late:

Villa (A) → Leeds (H)
If they drop points before Leeds game, that becomes a must-win decider

West Ham

Brutal late run:

Brentford → Arsenal → Leeds
Could arrive on final day needing a result

Nottingham Forest

Defining stretch:

Chelsea (A) → Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H)
Likely 0–3 points zone, high risk of being cut adrift

Bottom-Line Assessment

Leeds = Best positioned (fixtures + control via head-to-heads)

West Ham = Most dangerous run-in (fixture difficulty)

Tottenham = Volatile (balanced fixtures but high-pressure games)

Nottingham Forest = Highest risk (tough opponents, fewer “easy wins”)

1) Expected Points Simulation (Run-In)
Assumptions:

Home advantage ≈ +0.4 goals → higher win probability

“Top teams” = low probability (0–1 pts), mid-table = ~1–1.5 pts, relegation rivals = 1.5–2.5 pts

Blended expected value per fixture

Leeds United

Fixture Type Games Expected Points
Favourable (Wolves, Burnley, Bournemouth) 3 5–7 pts
Difficult (Man Utd, Spurs, West Ham) 3 1–3 pts
Total Projection 6 6–10 pts (likely ~8)

Tottenham

Fixture Type Games Expected Points
Balanced (Brighton, Wolves, Sunderland) 3 3–5 pts
Difficult (Villa x2, Leeds pressure game) 3 2–4 pts
Total Projection 6 5–9 pts (likely ~7)

West Ham

Fixture Type Games Expected Points
Tough (Arsenal, Villa, Brentford, Palace) 4 2–4 pts
Winnable (Everton, Leeds) 2 3–4 pts
Total Projection 6 5–8 pts (likely ~6)

Nottingham Forest

Fixture Type Games Expected Points
Very tough (Chelsea, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Villa) 3 1–2 pts
Winnable (Burnley, Sunderland) 2 3–4 pts
Toss-up (Spurs) 1 0–1 pts
Total Projection 6 4–7 pts (likely ~5)

2) Relegation Probability (Relative Model)
This is a relative probability model (not absolute odds), assuming all four are in the bottom cluster:

Team Survival Chance Relegation Risk
Leeds 65–75% survive 25–35%
Tottenham 55–65% survive 35–45%
West Ham 45–55% survive 45–55%
Nottingham Forest 30–40% survive 60–70%

Key driver:

Leeds have both fixture quality + control via head-to-heads

Forest lack both

3) Likely Survival Points Threshold
Typical Premier League safety line:

34–36 points = danger zone

37–39 points = likely safe

Adjusted for this season (tight cluster assumption):

Projected safety line: ~37 points

What Each Team Likely Needs

Team Likely Current Range* Points Needed Verdict
Leeds ~29–31 +6 to +8 Very achievable
Tottenham ~30–32 +5 to +7 Tight but doable
West Ham ~28–30 +7 to +9 Difficult run-in
Forest ~26–29 +8 to +11 Requires overperformance

*Estimated typical standings for this scenario

Final Strategic Read

Leeds: Best-positioned — multiple “winnable clusters” + direct control games

Tottenham: Fine margins — one bad result swings pressure heavily

West Ham: Fixture difficulty likely caps ceiling → vulnerable

Forest: Need an upset (Chelsea/Saudi Sportswashing Machine) or they’re relying on others failing

What do we learn from this analysis? IMO sweet f.a. anything could happen, how many of us knew Vicario had to have surgery 2 days ago? It's hard to believe a persons life could be so empty that they bothered to produce such stuff, if it was AI what a waste of a tool.

K.D.D.D.D.Soc · 2026-03-22T09:16:20+0000

Was listening to commentary on radio 5 while driving, lot of sympathy displayed for Chelsea, young team, forced to make many changes, missing experienced leaders, players tired after midweek games, I was almost in tears.

WillWeEverBeGoodAgain · 2026-03-22T09:27:07+0000

K.D.D.D.D.Soc said:
Was listening to commentary on radio 5 while driving, lot of sympathy displayed for Chelsea, young team, forced to make many changes, missing experienced leaders, players tired after midweek games, I was almost in tears.

It's beyond a joke isn't it, especially in the week when they have got away with such blatant abuse of the rules
I mean they also only signed 18 players too

First-team transfers in: 11
Academy transfers in: 7

Total incoming transfers: 18

*** The official 2025/26 Premier League thread ***

Nayim

Willie Hall

Terry Naylor

Ian Walker

Teddy Sheringham

Terry Naylor

Willie Hall

Johnny nice-tits

Manchester United to complain to PGMO after Amad Diallo denied penalty and Harry Maguire sent off in 2-2 draw with Bournemouth​

Teddy Sheringham

Manchester United to complain to PGMO after Amad Diallo denied penalty and Harry Maguire sent off in 2-2 draw with Bournemouth​

Teddy Sheringham

Jonathan Woodgate

Teddy Sheringham

Terry Dyson

Johnny nice-tits

Tom Huddlestone

Johnny nice-tits

Run-In Analysis (Key Insights)​

1) Head-to-Head “6-Pointers” Will Decide Survival​

2) Fixture Difficulty (Hardest → Easiest)​

3) Momentum Windows (Where Survival Can Be Won/Lost)​

Bottom-Line Assessment​

1) Expected Points Simulation (Run-In)​

Leeds United​

Tottenham​

West Ham​

Nottingham Forest​

2) Relegation Probability (Relative Model)​

3) Likely Survival Points Threshold​

Adjusted for this season (tight cluster assumption):​

What Each Team Likely Needs​

Final Strategic Read​

Jack Jull

Nayim

Run-In Analysis (Key Insights)​

1) Head-to-Head “6-Pointers” Will Decide Survival​

2) Fixture Difficulty (Hardest → Easiest)​

3) Momentum Windows (Where Survival Can Be Won/Lost)​

Bottom-Line Assessment​

1) Expected Points Simulation (Run-In)​

Tottenham​

West Ham​

Nottingham Forest​

2) Relegation Probability (Relative Model)​

3) Likely Survival Points Threshold​

What Each Team Likely Needs​

Final Strategic Read​

Nayim

Johnny nice-tits

We value your privacy

* The official 2025/26 Premier League thread *

Manchester United to complain to PGMO after Amad Diallo denied penalty and Harry Maguire sent off in 2-2 draw with Bournemouth

Manchester United to complain to PGMO after Amad Diallo denied penalty and Harry Maguire sent off in 2-2 draw with Bournemouth

Run-In Analysis (Key Insights)

1) Head-to-Head “6-Pointers” Will Decide Survival

2) Fixture Difficulty (Hardest → Easiest)

3) Momentum Windows (Where Survival Can Be Won/Lost)

Bottom-Line Assessment

1) Expected Points Simulation (Run-In)

Leeds United

Tottenham

West Ham

Nottingham Forest

2) Relegation Probability (Relative Model)

3) Likely Survival Points Threshold

Adjusted for this season (tight cluster assumption):

What Each Team Likely Needs

Final Strategic Read

Run-In Analysis (Key Insights)

1) Head-to-Head “6-Pointers” Will Decide Survival

2) Fixture Difficulty (Hardest → Easiest)

3) Momentum Windows (Where Survival Can Be Won/Lost)

Bottom-Line Assessment

1) Expected Points Simulation (Run-In)

Tottenham

West Ham

Nottingham Forest

2) Relegation Probability (Relative Model)

3) Likely Survival Points Threshold

What Each Team Likely Needs

Final Strategic Read