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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

I saw the numbers, 2 (I think) voted with Mays deal last night. Possible they wont follow the party line.

Though that is of course unlikely.

These coming votes are interesting, because Ive no idea what power Parliament thinks it has.

"Lets vote on whether or not we leave in two weeks without a deal"

Well the obvious result will be "no", but what does that mean? They dont get to automatically extend or pull a deal out of thin air.

Then they vote on extending. But, of course, thats to vote to ASK to extend. And will no doubt come with clauses.

These things are, to my mind, out of Parliaments power so whats the point?
 
An extension is 'by no means a given'

Brussels correspondent for The Times tweets

In a series of tweets, the Times' Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield comments on the possibility of the EU granting the UK an extension.

He says extensions "short or long will have lots of conditions and must come with a plan".

"To sum it up: a very badly damaged May is going to have to persuade EU leaders on an extension. It is by no means a given. As MPs drop no deal Brexit, EU will do the opposite and step up the threat of no deal. It now has maximum leverage."
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
An extension is 'by no means a given'

Brussels correspondent for The Times tweets

In a series of tweets, the Times' Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield comments on the possibility of the EU granting the UK an extension.

He says extensions "short or long will have lots of conditions and must come with a plan".

"To sum it up: a very badly damaged May is going to have to persuade EU leaders on an extension. It is by no means a given. As MPs drop no deal Brexit, EU will do the opposite and step up the threat of no deal. It now has maximum leverage."
Click to expand...

Didn't the German leader give their blessing already? I think the issue is extend it, but what for? Options are only 2nd ref or election. What else could you extend it for?
 
P.D. said:
Problem is even if the ERG support the deal but the DUP don't then the government collapses anyway as they will have lost their majority.
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If MV3 passed with northern and midland Labour MPs, I think the DUP would continue to support the Tories on the other programmes of government, rather than see a passionately Irish nationalist Corbyn government.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
An extension is 'by no means a given'

Brussels correspondent for The Times tweets

In a series of tweets, the Times' Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield comments on the possibility of the EU granting the UK an extension.

He says extensions "short or long will have lots of conditions and must come with a plan".

"To sum it up: a very badly damaged May is going to have to persuade EU leaders on an extension. It is by no means a given. As MPs drop no deal Brexit, EU will do the opposite and step up the threat of no deal. It now has maximum leverage."
Click to expand...

It would be funny if one random country torpedoed the extension and allowed us no deal by accident. Not an obvious one like France or Spain. But someone like Latvia, who holds a random decades-old grudge that we don't know about. Like how most Spurs fans don't realise how much Sunderland really hate us (because of our role in getting them relegated in 96/97)
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Yeah I was reading around when I got home last night and I make you right, I got the wrong end of the stick in the first place.

Of course, I dont believe an extension comes for free - I wonder what concessions will be demanded there, off the shelf options have already been discounted and the EU have said no more negotiation so...

Its no deal or remain, isnt it?
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There is a short extension and long extension. The short extension may not come with too many strings attached, just a plan on how the UK plan to proceed. The extension was only intended to ratify an exisitng deal from what I recall but I have a feeling there will be leeway on this considering the looming no deal deadline. A longer extension past the EU elections is a far more difficult thing and will come will plenty of concessions I would think. It is critical at this stage an extension is granted though for obvious reasons.

Although the EU has said there will be no renegoiation of the May deal, I think there would be room to revert to an earlier version of this deal, which is a NI only CU for the backstop. To me the most obvious and elegant solution by far, but rejected by the DUP.

An off the shelf deal has never really been seen as an option as it crossed May's red lines but I can imagine the EU agreeing to extension on those grounds if that was the UK's intention.
 
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Corbyns deal is a non-starter as presented.

The EU would have course be interested in completely neutering us and having us at their mercy with no voice, so I expect they would be interested in negotiating something like that.

That said, its been two years, negotiations have been done - and failed - if they extend I cant imagine it will be for long. Which would lead to the already dismissed off the shelf options.

Personally I think that would be tragic and we are more likely to have no Brexit at all.
 
the off the shelf solutions were dismissed due to mays red lines- she had those red lines as she thought it was the one that would get her party to support a deal - she was wrong. Get rid of the red lines - get multi party support at the outset and negotiate openly.

These Red lines were a construct of May for the benefit of the Tory party not the country.
 
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r-u-s-x said:
the off the shelf solutions were dismissed due to mays red lines- she had those red lines as she thought it was the one that would get her party to support a deal - she was wrong. Get rid of the red lines - get multi party support at the outset and negotiate openly.

These Red lines were a construct of May for the benefit of the Tory party not the country.
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May's red lines are some of the most popular aspects of Brexit though - no SM or CU restrictions and no FoM. The red line she could/should abandon would be no different treatment of NI. If she wasn't reliant on the DUP, that solution would have passed and the whole thing implemented a year ago.
 
r-u-s-x said:
the off the shelf solutions were dismissed due to mays red lines- she had those red lines as she thought it was the one that would get her party to support a deal - she was wrong. Get rid of the red lines - get multi party support at the outset and negotiate openly.

These Red lines were a construct of May for the benefit of the Tory party not the country.
Click to expand...

The red lines were valid and there for a reason. Even if they served her party aspirations no freedom of movement and being out of EU control were massive drivers of Brexit in the first place.

I think if we are willing to dismiss them and take an off the shelf option, Brexit isnt actually happening and the whole process is pointless.
 
Gutter Boy said:
May's red lines are some of the most popular aspects of Brexit though - no SM or CU restrictions and no FoM. The red line she could/should abandon would be no different treatment of NI. If she wasn't reliant on the DUP, that solution would have passed and the whole thing implemented a year ago.
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cu
how do you know? they were not on the ballot, pre vote many leavers were promising we would stay in the single martket /CU - It is very likely the majority of the country would want to stay in the Customs union.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
The red lines were valid and there for a reason. Even if they served her party aspirations no freedom of movement and being out of EU control were massive drivers of Brexit in the first place.

I think if we are willing to dismiss them and take an off the shelf option, Brexit isnt actually happening and the whole process is pointless.
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thats because what Brexit means has changed since the vote - all types were on offer pre vote.
 
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r-u-s-x said:
cu
how do you know? they were not on the ballot, pre vote many leavers were promising we would stay in the single martket /CU - It is very likely the majority of the country would want to stay in the Customs union.
Click to expand...

Not once you explain to people what the CU actually is - that it takes away all economic sovereignty. We would be contracting our entire economic policy - tariffs, quotas, trade agreements etc. - to Brussels.
 
r-u-s-x said:
thats because what Brexit means has changed since the vote - all types were on offer pre vote.
Click to expand...

Im well aware the vote was all things to all people, but it is undeniable the EU exerting control over our policies and Freedom of Movement were two key factors in many (most?) leave votes.

It is also undeniable (to my knowledge at least!) these two factors will be compromised with any off the shelf option except Canada - which Im pretty sure people have already dismissed.

Any sort of Canada+/Norway+ deal will require significant negotiation still, and Id wager the EU will baulk at those negotiations including a compromise of their four pillars.

Which brings us right back to square 1.
 
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