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The Stats Thread

Discussion in 'Spurs News & Views' started by zin, 4 Dec 2012.

  1. Bedfordspurs

    Bedfordspurs Erik Thorstvedt

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    Just gonna ask.. does it mean that those fans who’s say they can see with their eyes better are right?
    I’m thinking more of the winks argument (what does he do)!!!
    Every time someone posts the positive stats there are always those that deny them
     
  2. Raziel

    Raziel Frederic Kanoute

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    Data/Statistics is always about interpretations .. to me it's simple

    - Did you look at the data and come to a conclusion? and is there any other arguments that can validate that conclusion?
    - Or did you have a conclusion and looked for the data to confirm that?

    Most people opt for the second view ..
     
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  3. Bedfordspurs

    Bedfordspurs Erik Thorstvedt

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    or the data shows that something actually happens
    But because you have a view that you won’t change then you say the stats are wrong
     
  4. Spur of the moment

    Spur of the moment Steve Carr

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    Is this statement based on stats ... or what ??? :cool:
     
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  5. Raziel

    Raziel Frederic Kanoute

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    Nahh .. for that one I would have to pull out the "70% (weirdly rounded number) of people chose option 2" (no source of data, and when pressed use some sample group of 5 people as proof)
     
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  6. milo

    milo Fanny Walden Staff Member

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  7. parklane1

    parklane1 Jimmy Cantrell

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  8. elltrev

    elltrev Steve Hodge

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    Read this article this morning too. The interesting thing with Liverpool is that their goals for and against aren't that unusual compared to expected (Liverpool are the red dot, the other dots are the other 19 PL teams):

    upload_2020-8-10_15-31-41.png

    upload_2020-8-10_15-32-35.png

    (And I'd argue that those graphs also show that the xG model is pretty decent, taking into account that different teams will have different abilities in finishing and goalkeeping. Correlation is 94% for goals for, and 84% for goals against).

    But then on points, Liverpool do way better than expected:

    upload_2020-8-10_15-32-56.png

    But rather than it being a flaw in the xG model, I wonder if it just reflects Liverpool displaying the classic title-winning trait of winning when you don't play well - in close games where they should have drawn or lost, finding the finishing and/or goalkeeping edge to win instead.
     

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    Last edited: 10 Aug 2020 at 5:01 PM
  9. Kandi1977

    Kandi1977 Dimitar Berbatov

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    It also helps that the refs points to the spot every time a Liverpool player falls over in the box*

    *does not even have to be inside the box when it's Liverpool.
     
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  10. Bedfordspurs

    Bedfordspurs Erik Thorstvedt

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    Have you seen the athletics article on possessions? It’s actually interesting and shows the difference between a side and player that uses the ball and one that chase and forced errors
    City vs pool was massively disparate
     
  11. Bedfordspurs

    Bedfordspurs Erik Thorstvedt

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    You need to see Xg for assist before you complain... yep that’s a stat of when a pass should have lead to a high chance goal xg (sorry poor language)
     
  12. elltrev

    elltrev Steve Hodge

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    To be fair that would just contribute to a high xG, rather than a high number of goals compared to xG! :)
     
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  13. Kandi1977

    Kandi1977 Dimitar Berbatov

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    That depends. Most xG stats i see, exclude penalties/add them as separate. I.e xG 2.23 + 1 pen
     
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  14. elltrev

    elltrev Steve Hodge

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    Fair point! The stats I posted above include pens though I think.
     
  15. galeforce

    galeforce Ricky Villa

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    The take away for me is that the dippers did more of a Leicester than a City, probably because of similar “preparation”.
     
  16. scaramanga

    scaramanga Tony Galvin Staff Member

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    That and getting A LOT of decisions their way - like Leicester when they stole it.
     
  17. Bishop

    Bishop Ramon Vega

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    Not having seen the article I can see the logic. Forcing an error likely means you turn the ball over earlier and closer to the opposition goal with their defense unprepared and out of position.

    AVB and Poch both made that a cornerstone of their philospohies here and with Poch at least it did work during the first 3 years. We would just eventually overrun the opposition and that mental fatigue led to a great many goals despite the side actually being fairly lacking terms of overall creativity.
     
  18. Bedfordspurs

    Bedfordspurs Erik Thorstvedt

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    It’s worth seeing
    The “argument” is possession vs possessions are two very distinct things
    Pool have very few players who do well with the ball this way, their game is vey much focussed on turnover and much much fewer passes
    City barely lose the ball at all and keep it at will
    They had 5 out of the 10 top players for possession. Can’t remember who else was on the list but Winks was
    The logic of this approach is that possession players keep the momentum going and drive those mistakes.
     
  19. Bedfordspurs

    Bedfordspurs Erik Thorstvedt

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    A2913D21-0EF1-4BE6-88EA-3261EC12928D.png A2913D21-0EF1-4BE6-88EA-3261EC12928D.png
     

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  20. Bishop

    Bishop Ramon Vega

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    Barcelona were the perfection of this model because they had Xavi, Iniesta and Messi (amongst others) who could keep possession neatly but also play the key pass when the opening was there. The constant movement of the ball eventually led to mental fatigue and the killer ball was there to be played.

    I like both systems and don't think either route is better than the other. Although the Barca route does requires a higher level of entry.

    I'm happy enough going with the quick counter on transition as Jose seems to be intending, as I've mentioned before his Real side were absolute monsters at this. Just need to add a few key elements to make it work, we aren't a millions miles off being really good at it.
     

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