The draws

[Robbo]

We're unbeaten since the first game of the season, but of our 14 PL games, half of them are draws - more than any other team. I think we need to convert more of them to victories if we want to get top four.

It's all a very hypothetical hindsigt exercise, but which draw will we regret the most? For me it's Stoke at home, which was incredibly annoying - we were all over them in the first half.

Also Swansea away, where we had 11-2 shots on target and drew 2-2. Everton similarly, a 0-0 draw with 12-4 shots on target. And Arse away, which was another game I thought we deserved to win.

I think the only draws I'm ok with, are Leicester away, Liverpool and Hoofski at home. Then again it never happens that a team goes through a full season not drawing games they deserved to win, so hopefully we're due more luck in the second part of the season.

What do you think?

Our draws:
Stoke 2-2 (H)
Leicester 1-1 (A)
Everton 0-0 (H)
Swansea 2-2 (A)
Liverpool 0-0 (H)
Arsenal 1-1 (A)
Chelsea 0-0 (H)

 

[Hidden]

vs Swansea and Everton we were unlucky not to win.
vs Stoke we literally threw the game away and only ourselves to blame.
vs Pool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liecester results are pretty fare I think.

 

[Armenia Spur]

Not really upset about any of them other than the Stoke one

 

[alekaras]

Very upset about the Everton, Stoke, and Swansea ones. Also the Yanited loss. Those were the games where Kane was still finding his goal scoring boots. If just a couple of those games had gone our way, we'd be in the title mix. If all of them had, we could be running away with it come January. Fine margins...

 

[Gutter Boy]

They were games we were losing last season.

We've won 1 more game than at this stage last season, and turned nearly all our defeats into draws. That's a really positive trend.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Very upset about the Everton, Stoke, and Swansea ones. Also the Yanited loss. Those were the games where Kane was still finding his goal scoring boots. If just a couple of those games had gone our way, we'd be in the title mix. If all of them had, we could be running away with it come January. Fine margins...

It doesn't work like that though. Over 40 games things even themselves out.

The league standings at the moment are entirely predictable. Only Leicester and Chelsea are the wrong way around, and that will correct itself by May.

 

[Raziel]

Think you have to look at the full picture, single items (league position, opposition played, GD, W/D/L) all can be false (from a point in time perspective).

When I look at the team vs. last year

- League position = very similar
- Goal difference = much better (including the obvious improvement in top 4)
- Opposition played (good indicator vs. say Leicester) = we have played everyone in top 10 except Southampton
- Number of losses = 1 (vs. 4 or 5 at this point last season), and on an unbeaten run that was only bettered 20 years ago.

I actually don't believe we need to convert those draws to wins to make top 4. If we could convert those draws to wins we would be pushing for the title.

This team is simply not mature enough to challenge for the title (and I'm going to hear some bullwhip about ambition, how what single results was all we needed). It is a very young side that needs time to improve, and even with time, you don't win/draw every game you should in football.

 

[Raziel]

It doesn't work like that though. Over 40 games things even themselves out.

The league standings at the moment are entirely predictable. Only Leicester and Chel53a are the wrong way around, and that will correct itself by May.

I would argue only Leicester is off, and easily shown (take a look at who played and goals conceded, they have played very few of top sides and conceded a lot of goals)

Cheat$ki have simply played very badly, goals conceded and GD show that table position is not wrong for them, will they improve? Obviously.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I would argue only Leicester is off, and easily shown (take a look at who played and goals conceded, they have played very few of top sides and conceded a lot of goals)

Cheat$ki have simply played very badly, goals conceded and GD show that table position is not wrong for them, will they improve? Obviously.

I didn't mean their current position is unfair. But that their resources are so superior to ours, Liverpool, Leicester, West Ham, Palace, even Arsenal and United, that they should still finish the season in their natural position based on wage bill (1st/2nd).

 

[AdamB]

I think we need to convert more of them to victories if we want to get top four.

Well, we would have only need to have converted one of the draws to a win to be 4th so technically you're right but lets not over-state this. Its one game

 

[Raziel]

I didn't mean their current position is unfair. But that their resources are so superior to ours, Liverpool, Leicester, West Ham, Palace, even Arsenal and United, that they should still finish the season in their natural position based on wage bill (1st/2nd).

Agreed, to me the view of possibilities this season is

- City, Scum & Manure will keep top 4 spot (only variable there is Manure, not convinced by LVG and they have to buy a striker in Jan)
- Cheat$ki won't make top 4 (no side has done better than 6th from their position at this point and while they will improve, don't see that level of change)
- Pool is a threat
- We seem quite consistent from a performance perspective and with Pool seem most likely to get top 4
- Leicester, West Ham, Everton, Southampton probably make up the rest of top 10.

 

[alekaras]

I didn't mean their current position is unfair. But that their resources are so superior to ours, Liverpool, Leicester, West Ham, Palace, even Arsenal and United, that they should still finish the season in their natural position based on wage bill (1st/2nd).

I don't buy the wage bill argument to the extent you have been touting it. Yes, a higher wage bill means more quality players and thus better chance of finishing high in the table. But let's look at baseball, which I wouldn't even consider as close to a team game as football, and the wage bill doesn't always guarantee a winning side, or even making the playoffs. In football you can build a TEAM more easily with a lower wage bill and that is the X factor. And what we have now is a TEAM, so wage bill be damned.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I don't buy the wage bill argument to the extent you have been touting it. Yes, a higher wage bill means more quality players and thus better chance of finishing high in the table. But let's look at baseball, which I wouldn't even consider as close to a team game as football, and the wage bill doesn't always guarantee a winning side, or even making the playoffs. In football you can build a TEAM more easily with a lower wage bill and that is the X factor. And what we have now is a TEAM, so wage bill be damned.

Chelsea, City and United spend 100-150% more than we do on wage. We spend about £100m. They spend £200-250m.

That means they can either have twice as many players than we do (much more strength in depth for when injuries/fixtures pile up), or players that (according to the market) are twice as good.

Our only response is to be cleverer, as you say be more of a team. But that's only marginal compared to the clout of having twice as good players.

We might find glory through a lucky/fateful run of 6-8 games in a cup. But over 40 games the outliers sort themselves out and things revert to the predictable.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Our draws:
Stoke 2-2 (H) - thrown away in a manner that we won't do again imo and it was a shocking result considering how well we played and how dominant we were
Leicester 1-1 (A) - they had 3 shots and scored one - in hindsight not a bad result
Everton 0-0 (H) - our own fault for not taking the chances
Swansea 2-2 (A) - post europa - again they had 1 shot and scored 2 goals (Kanes go) and it felt like robbery
Liverpool 0-0 (H) - see above for drawing against team with hardly any efforts form them to attack
Arsenal 1-1 (A) - post Europa - better side by a mile
Chel53a 0-0 (H) - post Europa - better side by a reasonable margin and a struggle against a defensive unit

The post Europa ones for me are game that we would have lost a year ago so a draw is netter but in every one of these draws we have been the better side and generally the only side attacking with any vigour and effect

Turning these draws into the wins they should be based on our efforts and threat are the difference between top 4 and winning the league at the moment

I dont know how we do it but its a big challenge

 

[Finney Is Back]

Chel53a, City and United spend 100-150% more than we do on wage. We spend about £100m. They spend £200-250m.

That means they can either have twice as many players than we do (much more strength in depth for when injuries/fixtures pile up), or players that (according to the market) are twice as good.

Our only response is to be cleverer, as you say be more of a team. But that's only marginal compared to the clout of having twice as good players.

We might find glory through a lucky/fateful run of 6-8 games in a cup. But over 40 games the outliers sort themselves out and things revert to the predictable.

You can only pick a squad of 25 players so that doesn't really come into it. Although I do accept that they could stockpile talented under 21s.

Personally I think the difference that operating such a large wage bill has is that it allows those clubs to buy ready made players as opposed to promising talent. We have to spend a year or more nurturing players and turning them into superstars, our performances in the meantime are likely to be less consistent as those players make mistakes while gaining experience. Clubs like Man Utd, Emirates Marketing Project and Chelsea are able to buy the players when they have already developed.

 

[Robspur12]

Are posters confusing finishing 4th with winning the title? The former can be a long way behind the latter and has a higher margin of error. On an aside felt strange to see the champions coming to the lane and putting men behind the ball to hit us on the counter like some team battling relegation. Then listening to Jose speak after the game about it being his team's best performance of the season made me smile. Shows our progress under Poch.

 

[alekaras]

You can only pick a squad of 25 players so that doesn't really come into it. Although I do accept that they could stockpile talented under 21s.

Personally I think the difference that operating such a large wage bill has is that it allows those clubs to buy ready made players as opposed to promising talent. We have to spend a year or more nurturing players and turning them into superstars, our performances in the meantime are likely to be less consistent as those players make mistakes while gaining experience. Clubs like Man Utd, Emirates Marketing Project and Chel53a are able to buy the players when they have already developed.

Exactly. And that was my point in response to @Gutter Boy. There is an alternative to a large wage bill and that is building a team with, as you very well pointed out, promising youngsters. Won't happen overnight, but the right manager with the right system and players who fit it can get a team with a lower wage bill to compete with those with higher ones.

As for cups being our only hope of silverware, that's how a small team thinks and I'd like to believe we're a little bit better than that and, if there's a choice between chasing the league and chasing a cup, I'd rather we did the former.

 

[Gazzasrightboot]

Exactly. And that was my point in response to @Gutter Boy. There is an alternative to a large wage bill and that is building a team with, as you very well pointed out, promising youngsters. Won't happen overnight, but the right manager with the right system and players who fit it can get a team with a lower wage bill to compete with those with higher ones.

As for cups being our only hope of silverware, that's how a small team thinks and I'd like to believe we're a little bit better than that and, if there's a choice between chasing the league and chasing a cup, I'd rather we did the former.

I agree with the premise, but don't believe there is ever a choice to be made between chasing the league and chasing a cup. Form/momentum etc... comes from playing and winning games and playing a consistent side. The key for us will be the run in from Feb through to May where we have historically fallen away.

 

[billyiddo]

Chel53a, City and United spend 100-150% more than we do on wage. We spend about £100m. They spend £200-250m.

That means they can either have twice as many players than we do (much more strength in depth for when injuries/fixtures pile up), or players that (according to the market) are twice as good.

Our only response is to be cleverer, as you say be more of a team. But that's only marginal compared to the clout of having twice as good players.

We might find glory through a lucky/fateful run of 6-8 games in a cup. But over 40 games the outliers sort themselves out and things revert to the predictable.

What's the point trying to be clever if as you say the league always corrects itself so the teams with more money always finish where they should?

 

[alekaras]

I agree with the premise, but don't believe there is ever a choice to be made between chasing the league and chasing a cup. Form/momentum etc... comes from playing and winning games and playing a consistent side. The key for us will be the run in from Feb through to May where we have historically fallen away.

I think there is a choice and one was made as recently as a couple of months ago with the team we put out against the Scum in the LC. That indicated to me that Poch chose to prioritize the league game against City over the LC, even though it was against our most hated rivals. And if we are sitting in 2nd place come March with a shot at the top, then I'm pretty sure any FA Cup or EL game will drop in terms of priority, if our next opponent is the Scum or City, or Utd.