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Spending in January works (Telegraph)

Discussion in 'Transfer Archives' started by Notmegov, 12 Jan 2015.

  1. Notmegov

    Notmegov Tim Sherwood

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    Spending big in the January window works – and here’s the proof
    2m
    babb-logo
    by Project Babb
    January01

    A study by bwin and footballtransferstats.com has examined the January transfer activity of every Premier League club since the window was introduced. Specifically, they analysed eight clubs who have spent more than £19.5m in a single January window, comparing the results for the remainder of that season with their performances after a January in which they turned a profit.
    January03

    In January 2009, Emirates Marketing Project spent heavily in the transfer window – bringing in the likes of Craig Bellamy and Nigel de Jong – and performances improved markedly. Four years later, after selling Mario Balotelli to Milan, City’s form slumped and they failed to retain their Premier League title. Defeat in the FA Cup final also followed, before manager Roberto Mancini was dismissed.
    January04

    Harry Redknapp, no stranger to the January transfer window, brought in five players in January 2009 (including £12m Wilson Palacios) and Tottenham gained nearly a point a game more than in their disastrous start to the campaign. In 2012, a net profit of £7.5m merely resulted in a downturn in fortunes and Spurs were pipped to a Champions League place by Arsenal by a single point.
    January07

    New manager Alan Curbishley, given the task of keeping West Ham in the top flight, brought in a clutch of new signings in January 2007 – including Luis Boa Morte and Matthew Upson – and his new-look side responded emphatically to stave off relegation.
    January08

    £18m Darren Bent was Aston Villa’s biggest signing in the 2011 mid-season window, and he scored nine goals in 16 games to justify the outlay. Back in 2008, a more thrifty Randy Lerner oversaw a profit of over £7m – largely thanks to the sale of Gary Cahill – but Villa’s form dipped.
    January09

    A rare January spending spree by Arsene Wenger in 2006 saw the arrival of Emmanuel Adebayor and a 16-year-old Theo Walcott. Arsenal went on to win eight of their final 11 Premier League games to secure a Champions League place, just two points ahead of rivals Spurs. Two seasons later, after Wenger hesitated in the January window, Arsenal missed out on the title by just four points.
    January02

    In January 2011, Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich opened the chequebook and they made a marked improvement to secure a Champions League place – they would go on to win the tournament the following season. It was a marked change in policy from the 2008/09 season, in which only loanee Ricardo Quaresma arrived, but Chelsea’s form that season remained steady and they eased to Champions League qualification.
    January06

    Liverpool have proved another exception to the rule. A significant net spend in January 2013 – including the £12m signing of Daniel Sturridge – gave manager Brendan Rodgers a strong finish to his first season and a platform from which to launch a credible title challenge the following year. Although Rafael Benitez’s transfer strategy was rather different in 2009 – the return of Robbie Keane to Spurs his only business – Liverpool kicked on significantly to run Manchester United close for the title.
    January05v2

    Poor David Moyes. In a desperate bid to revive a disastrous Manchester United season last January, a club record £37m fee was paid to Chelsea for Juan Mata. However, the Spaniard couldn’t lift their form and Moyes paid the price for their worst-ever Premier league finish. Under Sir Alex Ferguson in 2007, United made a small profit in the transfer window, but still went on to win the Premier League title at a canter.
    Overall, then, what does a January spending spree mean for a Premier League side? From the eight clubs analysed above, doing significant business in January has led to an improvement in points per game. Meanwhile, turning a profit may look good on the balance sheet, but the league table suggests it isn’t always the best approach.

    http://babb.telegraph.co.uk/2015/01/spending-big-in-the-january-window-works-and-heres-the-proof/
     
  2. Gutter Boy

    Gutter Boy Tim Sherwood

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    The sample size is too pathetic for this to be of any value.

    Give some rigorous £ spent = point uplift data, or this is at best a spurious correlation (http://www.tylervigen.com/)
     
    Last edited: 12 Jan 2015
  3. scaramanga

    scaramanga Teddy Sheringham Staff Member

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    Add to that the fact that a new manager is both likely to spend in Jan and to improve results as the season goes on and that's enough to skew the very small sample
     
  4. Mumorn

    Mumorn Vic Buckingham

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    I'll never forget Jan 2012 when we signed Saha.

    Newcastle had signed Cisse who went on and scored 13 in 14 and Everton had went and signed Jelavic who went on and scored 9 in 13.
     
  5. Jordinho

    Jordinho Bill Brown Staff Member

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    Or January 2011. Liverpool signed Carroll and Chelsea signed Torres.

    Or the 2012/13 season when Jelavic managed 7 in 37 and Cisse 8 in 36.
     
  6. Danishfurniturelover

    Danishfurniturelover the prettiest spice girl

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    I heard Brighton want Palacios and Bassong which means going to watch Brighton play would be like watching Tottenham in 2010.

    Maybe just because Hughton is there now.
     
  7. Pirate55

    Pirate55 The Last Man Standing 17/18

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    I remember it all too well as well. What might have been. Oh well, it looks like we never learn from our mistakes.

    Yes this a small sample size, but the examples listed in the article are interesting nevertheless. We also have a new(ish) manager and now that he has had time to evaluate the squad, we need to back him in the market. We are still challenging on four fronts and there are some obvious weaknesses in certain positions and not adequate quality cover in others.
     
  8. braineclipse

    braineclipse Barry Daines

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    Agreed.

    Quite possibly some regression to the mean going on as well. Clubs under performing might be more likely to spend, thus further skewing the results.

    What is presented in this article though is not even a sample, and thus it's not yet even really at the point where one can complain about sample size. It's just a cherry picked list of examples.

    Do you think Everton as a club overall benefited from signing Jelavic when they did? Not sure if it's the best example.

    Of course spending money works [citation needed]. And I think it's a myth that spending in January is somehow flawed. But the article doesn't prove anything.
     
  9. Neymar

    Neymar Biggest Bozo 2015 Gooner WUM

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    +1 I'm in agreement too. And I would add that the belief that only "desperate teams spend in January" is nonesense too. Teams that spend in the summer are no less desperate. Basically the transfer window is only open for two limited periods during the year. If a manager spots a good opportunity to make a transfer, he should make it regardless of which window it is in. The winter window is no different to the summer one in that some players bought in this window will work out, whilst others will not.

    I would be interested to see if prices really are inflated in the January window too. People always say they are, but from casual observations, this doesnt really seem to be the case.

    Thinking about it now, there really does seem to be a lot of myths surrounding the january window.
     
  10. Hoddledro

    Hoddledro Øyvind Leonhardsen

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    Just hope the usual Chelsea's January switch of one failed twenty something million midfielder out and another in doesn't pay off this time.
    I see Poch raving about Cuadrado. He does run around a lot
    http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/footbal...chettino-praises-cuadrado-quality_202350.html

    Didn't do it for me in the latter stages of world cup. Interrupted Colombia's flow at times. I suppose he can't be at chelsea and face us with Fiorentina
     

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