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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by markysimmo, 27 Feb 2020.

  1. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    So based on this lets see if the number of deaths match the same trend as cases, if they dont then the theory of old and vulnerable being the unfortunate victims of this causing the original spike will in my opinion hold water.

    I hope then IF and that is a big IF, if that is the cases I hope we proceed in a sensible fashion and not lockdown again
     

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  2. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    It also proves though that even if 200k people had it they were not sick enough to go to the Dr and could isolate at home, this is all part of the same point regardless.
     
  3. Diamond Lights

    Diamond Lights Peter Taylor

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    A competent government
     
    Gilzeantoscore likes this.
  4. ricky2tricky4city

    ricky2tricky4city Paul Robinson

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    That graph would never look like that with massive testing capacity.

    I'm surprised you've got a blind spot with this?
     
  5. Gazza Dazzla

    Gazza Dazzla Edgar Davids

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    It was 100k tests per day I think you are thinking of?
     
  6. Legohamster

    Legohamster Pedro Mendes

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    Glad I didn’t imagine that figure- it’s seems unreal when you write it down.

    It adds fuel to the shielding plans that There was that many cases and “only” 320 deaths of people under 60 without a serious illness
     
  7. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    I dont have a blind spot with it, tests or no tests people who were severe enough with the illness reported to where they needed to be in order for us to have the figures in April which meant 95k were no sick enough to have to leave the house and could self isolate and recover.

    Also the argument would be, if the cases were rife in April, worse than reported. we were right to lockdown. We have have more testing now and the figure is nowhere near 100k and you are saying more accurate, so based on that we are nowhere near the risk levels of the start and should not lockdown????

    2million cancer patients missing their appointments should be our biggest concern now, thats the biggest death toll rising potentially than Covid19

    Regardless the data points towards over panic

    If you are fit and healthy and under 45 you can go to work, you can get on with your life, you can shield your loved ones and vulnerable but we can do so and stave off long term potential for poverty, mental illness including suicide and the worst unemployment this country has seen in modern times
     
    Last edited: 22 Sep 2020
    glasgowspur and Legohamster like this.
  8. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    Average age is 82
     
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  9. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Jimmy McCormick

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    Our numbers are/were certainly high.

    However, you do have a much smaller population and a wider geographical area than we do. That has to be taken into consideration as well imo (plus the inconsistencies around the world with the testing methodologies, for example fair few scientists are saying that the PCR test commonly being used is picking up a lot of false positives and 'dead virus' material).

    Either way, i'm sure what's going on with you guys is on it's way here (our Government just wants us to scream for it instead of imposing it...)
     
    awesome dawson and tommysvr like this.
  10. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Jimmy McCormick

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    With the proposals from that consultation, i think we can see that whatever 'outcry' there may be about not taking an unlicensed/unsafe vaccine will be irrelevant.
     
  11. Mikey10

    Mikey10 Ruel Fox

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    Who could have guessed it would go so wrong? (Apart from the teachers and their unions.)

    Yip. Your post highlights the true problem; the absence of any sort of plan.
     
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  12. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    Easy really

    Continue with Covid safe environments including social distancing, numbers and mask

    Get people back to work under these restrictions and protect the vulnerable and elderly
     
  13. ricky2tricky4city

    ricky2tricky4city Paul Robinson

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    The amount of people testing positive in April was limited by the testing...we were doing eff all tests compared to now.

    If I done 100k tests today and got 6k positive results and I did 10k tests on April 1st and got 6k positive results. Would we be running at the same rate of infection?


    To say we shouldn't of gone into lockdown at that stage is brutal. I don't necessarily agree with the path we are now taking BUT in that first peak hospitals were at and over their limit, we had to do something in case (very possible) things turned uglier. Everyone, no matter how dire their situation should always be served the best care and opportunity possible. A quite simple way to reason this is to think of your mother,father,son, daughter in that situation. If people start dying in hallways, in ambulances, at home thru lack of capacity, staff, beds etc...it's a bad look. A brake had to put on it as we had little clue what we were dealing with.

    We are not near the (real) numbers from April. I think they are worried that we are heading that way.

    As a sidenote. If we are at 6k a day now as in April, we were also at 800,900,1000 deaths a day in April. Not now? Obviously because the number of infections were much more than testing allowed us to know then. A % of infected people would be serious enough to end up in hospital, so from a big pool. Now testing is giving us a more accurate picture of how many have got it and that pool is not so big hence hospitalisation s/deaths nowhere near previously.
     
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  14. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    I said we were right to go into lockdown based on those number if we were at 100,000 although lockdown is not my thing.

    Point I am making on the numbers is if 100,000 were infected per day and we were only reporting 6k then that was the 6,000 who were being recorded, how or why were they being recorded? Because they were too ill to self isolate at home and went to get medical help. Which points to the fact that the idea you can get the infection and not need serious medical help. With the average age of death in the UK at 82 its clear where the biggest threat of death sits.

    The point I am making overall is that yes the threat of infections are high but if you shield those who are most at threat, which we have the data to identify then we can get closer to normality than we are now.

    My biggest problem with all this is people are making the wrong sacrifices. People wont take 3/4 months away from seeing their parents in a home, they would rather take 6 months off work to stay safe so they can, we had this debate before on here about people going back into care homes when it was the clearest threat, the only way you can do that is an almost self isolated bubble which includes retracting from life. THen you have those that will wisk th e pub *officially 6.5m a weekend but wont go back to work.

    Kids going back to school and people going back to work safely with shielding of care homes and elderly and the vulnerable would 400% be my route back now.
     
  15. Legohamster

    Legohamster Pedro Mendes

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    Who would have thought a man with a history of lying, bluster, laziness and false promises is now doing all 4 as PM
     
  16. P.D.

    P.D. Chris Armstrong

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    So much for seeing it off in 12 weeks then eh BoJo!!! I fail to see how pubs closing at 10 is going to do much, if you're with someone for 2/3 hours rather than 4/5 hours you'll still likely catch it. It may reduce it a tiny amount if it puts people off going to the pub but in the grand scheme of it the main effect is to slowly starve the pubs until even more of them shut down whilst not reducing the virus spread - in other words the worst of both worlds.
     
  17. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Frederic Kanoute

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    Someone said it was his way of saying use it properly or lose it permanent. I get that TBH because if he closed I down the uproar would be tenfold

    Goes back to the point I made earlier the pubs a glaring issue based on the fact its different from anywhere else in terms of masks etc. So people who use them are getting a leg up on people wanting to actually go to work which is odd, is what it is so use it properly or lose it. Its on the public to decide with their actions.

    Its also saying to pub enforce the rules better or lose your business which I get. Pubs have been supported more than most time they tightened up so other industries might get a chance to get on
     
    Last edited: 22 Sep 2020
  18. Legohamster

    Legohamster Pedro Mendes

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    The stats don’t back up pubs and restaurants being an issue - it’s care homes /hospitals mainly
     
  19. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Jimmy McCormick

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    I actually think there are elements of the government split on this. I think Handc0ck and his crew are up for a full, blanket, checkpoint-charlie type lockdown, whilst Johnson and his posse are against any such things.

    I think the former crew are pushing things slowly towards full lockdown with Boris trying to drag his heels.

    This is the only thing to me (apart from everything else) that can explain one time being told to "get back to the office" and "eat out to help out" to now "stay at home or you might die" house-arrest messages.

    Let's not even talk about the economic effects..
     
  20. nayenezgani

    nayenezgani Jimmy Neighbour

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    Care homes/hospitals are an issue for increased mortality risk maybe, yes.. But pubs and restauarants are still a big problem for transmission.

    Greater transmission then equals a greater chance of the virus appearing in care homes and among those more vulnerable. Surely you get that?
     

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