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Politics, politics, politics

glorygloryeze said:
Ok, i'll edit my post above.
An EU army, the Euro, a European Central Bank, a European Parliament and Commission together with an EU President were all 'hot air' once too..that's hope it starts before it becomes "oh it's only right we do it, after all we've already got x, y,z so this next step is just logical isn't it" etc
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we have different views on who makes decisions the "EU" or their members.
 
glorygloryeze said:
I actually wonder if May, being a remainer, has purposely negotiated such a bad deal to effectively force us to stay in by proxy, extending article 50 etc.

Tusk today as before keeps saying that 'cancelling Brexit' is on the table...FFS, we need to GTFO ASAP
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I dont think she is that smart. I think she simply wants to keep her job, and so has gotten laser focused on making sure Brexit happens and we can control immigration in particular - given it was widely regarded as the main motivator behind the leave vote - I think its likely she is just that straight forward.

She has shown she isnt a nuanced operator, character, leader, or any of it. Rather just a persistent fudger who will stay the course.

I keep seeing comment about how Corbyn coming in will mean the EU want to deal, effectively along the lines of - he will give the EU what they want.

Which makes me wonder, should he do that - he might well get very happy agreement from the EU, but would he get it at home?

"He'll sign up to Environmental standards". Ok, fair enough, geographically we are in Europe so it stands they want certain standards on their doorstep.
"He'll sign up to workers rights". Well, lets think about this one. They dont give a fudge about 3rd party nation nationals well being, do they? The concern here is that they would expect to maintain free movement of people, and so want EU citizens looked after.

Now, wasnt the Brexit vote heavily based upon immigration? Oh, hang on a sec....

So what else will he sign over to them? And will it get past Parliament/the public?
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Why the fudge would we want to be in the EFTA?

No say, no other trade deals, still (I believe) paying into the pot, no controls on immigration - what is the point of even considering it?

And, of course the EU would be up for that! We would be a silent partner trapped in their back pocket indefinitely, fudge that. Its even worse than Mays deal.

We need to be all in, or all out. Anything in between is a bloody clusterfudge.
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It's easy to leave - that's the key. All you have to do is give 12 months' notice - no negotiations/article 50 process gonad*s. That's why it's potentially more attractive to Brexiteers than May's deal. Parking there for 20 months, instead of the withdrawal agreement, gives us back some agency
 
Gutter Boy said:
It's easy to leave - that's the key. All you have to do is give 12 months' notice - no negotiations/article 50 process gonads. That's why it's potentially more attractive to Brexiteers than May's deal. Parking there for 20 months, instead of the withdrawal agreement, gives us back some agency
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In that context I could go for it. What are the chances though?

StephenH said:
Oh yes, clever lady.
Shes out fox'ed (no pun intended) the barmy army of brexiteers.
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Then we see her very differently. I think she's simply had more staying power while they burn themselves out. Stubborn adherence to the plan.

Cant say Ive spotted any sort of manouvering etc to stay ahead. Simply blinkers on and keep marching.

Same as with the EU, hardly like she has shown any chops is it?
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
In that context I could go for it. What are the chances though?
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The other 4 members need to agree to it. Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are all keen; especially Switzerland who have constant battles with the EU. Norway are less so, because they are the de facto leader of it. But by pulling out of the withdrawal agreement, we could end up with a spare £39b to help convince them.
 
Gutter Boy said:
The other 4 members need to agree to it. Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are all keen; especially Switzerland who have constant battles with the EU. Norway are less so, because they are the de facto leader of it. But by pulling out of the withdrawal agreement, we could end up with a spare £39b to help convince them.
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I was thinking more the temporary nature of it, rather than effective BINO.

And as I understand it the £39bn will be paid anyway
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I was thinking more the temporary nature of it, rather than effective BINO.

And as I understand it the £39bn will be paid anyway
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It would be in the hands of the government/democracy to decide if/when we left - which is not the case with either the EU (in practice) or the withdrawal agreement (in theory and in practice).

The £39b should be reduced substantially anyway, as we'd not be paying for the transition agreement period.

In terms of financial contributions during the parking period, the UK currently pays €215 net per person into the EU. Whereas Norway pays €75 net per person for ETFA and Switzerland and Iceland pay about €25 per person. So at worse we should have a 65% reduction for that period.
 
If we're talking facts not projections:
  • The UK has gone from the faster growing developed nation to the slowest post Brexit vote. Other fiancial indicators like the value of the currency and house prices concur, Brexit means fiancial decline. With less global influence fot the UK, it also signals political decline on the world stage.

  • EU nations have nationalised industries. France, via its government, has stakes in car and phone companies, Orange for example. Not to mention most other EU nations have nationalised rail. We have a privitised rail system. The idea that the EU stops us from having either setup is clearly "project fear" not fact.

  • The EU have not "bullied" us in negotiating a deal. They represent their members and get the best deal for them. We try and get the best deal for us. The crying about the EU is embarrassing, like they are somehow in control of the UKs mess. It was all the UK, and the EU are trying to deal with it. Truth be told they have dealt with it better than the UK has. That we had an equal hand in negotiations - as Leave so strongly argued - is clearly not true.

The EU is not 'the other' to fear. They don't control much of what the UK does. Though deluded people talk about a united states of Europe it is not on the cards as each EU nation is so distinct with language, culture, histroy it would be impossible. The EU's heart is a customs union to allow free trade between members. Things like food safty standards, allowing free phone roaming, monitoring polution, workers rights - they are not bad things! Why do people fear the EU or want us to go backwards?

The sooner we can cancel this debarcle the less harm will be done.
 
Oh and did anyone see the latest immigration figures for the past year?

about 70k immigrants from the EU vs circa 250,000 from rest of the world, mainly from Asia and India. The vast majority of our immigration has nothing to do with the EU. We have full control over the entry of those 250,000 people now, is Brexit really the answer ?
 
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Gutter Boy said:
The other 4 members need to agree to it. Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are all keen; especially Switzerland who have constant battles with the EU. Norway are less so, because they are the de facto leader of it. But by pulling out of the withdrawal agreement, we could end up with a spare £39b to help convince them.
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The 39bn are payments that will have to be paid regardless, these are things we agreed to fund ... This came out months ago.
 
So what do we reckon is gonna happen then? May's deal gets voted down on the first reading. "Markets" go into a spaz. MP's bottle goes. May's deal gets voted through on 2nd reading. Tory Party irrevocably splits. Labour p1ss the next General Election as ANY sort of economic downturn will be blamed on May's Brexit deal and the new "people army party" will divide the Tory vote between the party of May and the party of Rees-Mogg.

Or not...
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I dont think she is that smart. I think she simply wants to keep her job, and so has gotten laser focused on making sure Brexit happens and we can control immigration in particular - given it was widely regarded as the main motivator behind the leave vote - I think its likely she is just that straight forward.

She has shown she isnt a nuanced operator, character, leader, or any of it. Rather just a persistent fudger who will stay the course.

I keep seeing comment about how Corbyn coming in will mean the EU want to deal, effectively along the lines of - he will give the EU what they want.

Which makes me wonder, should he do that - he might well get very happy agreement from the EU, but would he get it at home?

"He'll sign up to Environmental standards". Ok, fair enough, geographically we are in Europe so it stands they want certain standards on their doorstep.
"He'll sign up to workers rights". Well, lets think about this one. They dont give a fudge about 3rd party nation nationals well being, do they? The concern here is that they would expect to maintain free movement of people, and so want EU citizens looked after.

Now, wasnt the Brexit vote heavily based upon immigration? Oh, hang on a sec....

So what else will he sign over to them? And will it get past Parliament/the public?
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Agree. It's regularly stated that Corbyn's a brexiteer, but IMO he's way out of sync with the majority of the leave-voting electorate on the matter. I'd imagine his 'negotiations' with the EU would involve immediate concessions on, among other things, FoM and continuing budget payments. Which, as you suggest, would likely provoke a massive domestic backlash were it to come to pass.

This is probably just another reason he's been so non-commital over the whole thing.
 
I think May has got one last trick up her sleeve to buy-off the DUP and ERG, but she doesn't want to use it too early. I reckon there might be something like a government amendment to make the back-stop illegal - something along those lines. Though I don't think it will work now
 
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