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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
I love how transparent Gove is. He really thinks he is pulling all these sly manouvres when really he is as blatant as Boris.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
EU leaders have dismissed talk of renegotiating the draft Brexit deal and warned the UK's political situation could make a "no-deal" more likely.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was "no question" of reopening talks as a document was "on the table".
Meanwhile French PM Edouard Philippe said there was a need to prepare for a no-deal because of UK "uncertainty".
The EU has set out a series of meetings leading up to 25 November when it plans to approve the Brexit agreement.
However leaders admit that there is still much ground to cover after the UK Prime Minister Theresa May won backing on Wednesday from her cabinet for the 585-page draft agreement.
"We still have a long road ahead of us on both sides," the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said.
On Thursday, Mrs Merkel said she was pleased that progress had been made.
But following news of resignations from Mrs May's cabinet, including the UK's Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, she said it was possible that Britain may still leave without a deal.
She also said that there was no appetite for further talks on possible amendments to the current agreement.
"We have a document on the table that Britain and the EU 27 have agreed to, so for me there is no question at the moment whether we negotiate further," she said.
Mr Philippe appeared to echo her sentiment over UK political uncertainty.
"It will escape no-one that the current political situation in Britain could fuel uncertainty... over the ratification of the accord," he said.
How have other European leaders reacted?
The European Parliament's Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt said the deal had been hammered out after two years of "intense negotiations" and he hoped UK MPs would accept that "there is not a lot of room [for] manoeuvre to say, 'OK, let's start again'".
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the deal was "good news for the French economy" but also issued caution, saying the UK must be made to respect all EU rules.
Finland's Prime Minister Juha Sipila tweeted to say that while Wednesday's developments were important, "decisions on both sides are still needed for a final agreement".
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said he was "very pleased" and "optimistic", adding: "We are pinning our hopes on it."
What has the EU said and what happens next?
Speaking on Thursday alongside EU Council head Donald Tusk, Mr Barnier said the agreement was fair and balanced, took into account the UK's needs and laid the ground for an "ambitious new partnership".
Mr Tusk praised Mr Barnier's work and said the agreement had "secured the interests of the 27 member states and EU as a whole".
He laid out the timetable for the days ahead.
Addressing the UK, he added: "As much as I am sad to see you leave, I will do everything to make this farewell the least painful possible, for you and for us."
Mr Barnier later took the document to the European Parliament. Its president, Antonio Tajani, said MEPs would vote on the deal in early 2019.
If the agreement is approved by both sides, a 21-month transition period will kick in, during which a trade deal and the thorny issue of how to ensure there is no physical border between Northern Ireland - part of the UK - and the Republic of Ireland will need to be worked out.
A smooth border-free exchange underpins the peace deal that ended the Northern Ireland conflict.
Volatile UK politics could bin Brexit deal, worries EU
Katya Adler
Ashen-faced European diplomats haunt the corridors of Brussels. No rest for them until Sunday 25 November - the day of the "seal the deal" Brexit summit between Theresa May and EU leaders.
So what do they have to do between now and then?
Diplomats from the 27 EU countries must now pore over 585 pages of the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with lawyers to ensure all will be to each government's liking.
If a problem is identified, it will need to be transmitted to the team of Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, as early as this Friday or Saturday.
The 27 member states (and Theresa May) also still have to agree what should be in the political declaration on the future EU-UK relationship.
This part of the divorce treaty is not legally binding - but it is symbolically important. At the moment the text is solely made up of a series of bullet points and headings. So the pressure is definitely on, leading up to the 25th.
But all this could be in vain if the Brexit deal is voted down by the UK parliament in a few weeks' time.
The EU knows this is a very real possibility.
I put the question to Michel Barnier on Wednesday night at his press conference - but, skilled politician that he is, he refused to engage.
Brussels is very keen indeed not to give the impression that the EU might change or come up with a "better" Brexit deal text if this one ends up being rejected in the House of Commons.
Mr Barnier quoted Theresa May as saying that this is a deal in the UK's interest.
In fact, he spoke so warmly about the deal - how hard EU and UK negotiators had worked on it, how successful they had been in protecting citizens' rights, the Irish border and the constitutional integrity of the UK - that one colleague commented to me it was as if Mr Barnier, known for his suave French manner, believed they had managed to conjure an exquisitely designed Faberge egg out of the complex Brexit process.
No wonder then that he didn't want to engage in the possibility of that egg getting smashed.
Truth be told, he's unlikely to face much trouble from the EU side.
He is off to Strasbourg on Thursday to schmooze the European parliament - which has a veto over the Brexit deal.
MEPs will look at the section of the withdrawal agreement on citizens' right with a particularly critical eye as that is the issue they tend most to focus on. But Mr Barnier has been careful to keep the parliament in the loop on negotiations throughout, so they're unlikely to reject a final agreement.
EU countries had also given Ireland an effective veto over the deal if Dublin were unhappy about the provisions for the Irish border.
But the Irish prime minister gave the green light to the draft text on Wednesday, so that is no longer an issue.
Spain and Gibraltar, and Cyprus and the UK military bases on the island were also thought to be potential pitfalls. The withdrawal agreement sorted them out too.
This leaves the concerns the UK's biggest EU trade partners (like France and Germany) had over the so-called "level playing field": ensuring that the UK was tied to extra EU regulations in the temporary customs relationship outlined in the Irish backstop, should it one day be triggered.
Well, about 100 pages of the draft withdrawal treaty are dedicated to these extra ties - on state aid, environment and labour regulations - ensuring that UK business should not have a competitive advantage over EU ones in a customs partnership.
Rights to fish in UK waters after Brexit have not yet been agreed, and the Spanish, French, Danish or Dutch will probably have something to say about that - but it's not a deal breaker at this stage.
So, those Europeans wary of political trouble that could disrupt or destroy the careful Brexit deal choreography between now and 25 November (and beyond) look fearfully at the politically volatile UK.
This led one EU civil servant late on Wednesday night to jab at the 585 pages of the draft Brexit treaty, muttering: "You know what? All this could still end up in the bin."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was "no question" of reopening talks as a document was "on the table".
Meanwhile French PM Edouard Philippe said there was a need to prepare for a no-deal because of UK "uncertainty".
The EU has set out a series of meetings leading up to 25 November when it plans to approve the Brexit agreement.
However leaders admit that there is still much ground to cover after the UK Prime Minister Theresa May won backing on Wednesday from her cabinet for the 585-page draft agreement.
"We still have a long road ahead of us on both sides," the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said.
On Thursday, Mrs Merkel said she was pleased that progress had been made.
But following news of resignations from Mrs May's cabinet, including the UK's Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, she said it was possible that Britain may still leave without a deal.
She also said that there was no appetite for further talks on possible amendments to the current agreement.
"We have a document on the table that Britain and the EU 27 have agreed to, so for me there is no question at the moment whether we negotiate further," she said.
Mr Philippe appeared to echo her sentiment over UK political uncertainty.
"It will escape no-one that the current political situation in Britain could fuel uncertainty... over the ratification of the accord," he said.
How have other European leaders reacted?
The European Parliament's Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt said the deal had been hammered out after two years of "intense negotiations" and he hoped UK MPs would accept that "there is not a lot of room [for] manoeuvre to say, 'OK, let's start again'".
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the deal was "good news for the French economy" but also issued caution, saying the UK must be made to respect all EU rules.
Finland's Prime Minister Juha Sipila tweeted to say that while Wednesday's developments were important, "decisions on both sides are still needed for a final agreement".
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said he was "very pleased" and "optimistic", adding: "We are pinning our hopes on it."
What has the EU said and what happens next?
Speaking on Thursday alongside EU Council head Donald Tusk, Mr Barnier said the agreement was fair and balanced, took into account the UK's needs and laid the ground for an "ambitious new partnership".
Mr Tusk praised Mr Barnier's work and said the agreement had "secured the interests of the 27 member states and EU as a whole".
He laid out the timetable for the days ahead.
- EU member states will analyse the document and at the end of the week national envoys will share their assessments
- A political declaration on future ties between the EU and the UK will be agreed by Tuesday and members will have 48 hours to evaluate it
- The EU Council will then meet for a summit on 25 November to finalise the agreement "if nothing extraordinary happens", Mr Tusk said. The leaders of the 27 EU nations must approve the deal
Addressing the UK, he added: "As much as I am sad to see you leave, I will do everything to make this farewell the least painful possible, for you and for us."
Mr Barnier later took the document to the European Parliament. Its president, Antonio Tajani, said MEPs would vote on the deal in early 2019.
If the agreement is approved by both sides, a 21-month transition period will kick in, during which a trade deal and the thorny issue of how to ensure there is no physical border between Northern Ireland - part of the UK - and the Republic of Ireland will need to be worked out.
A smooth border-free exchange underpins the peace deal that ended the Northern Ireland conflict.
Volatile UK politics could bin Brexit deal, worries EU
Katya Adler
Ashen-faced European diplomats haunt the corridors of Brussels. No rest for them until Sunday 25 November - the day of the "seal the deal" Brexit summit between Theresa May and EU leaders.
So what do they have to do between now and then?
Diplomats from the 27 EU countries must now pore over 585 pages of the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with lawyers to ensure all will be to each government's liking.
If a problem is identified, it will need to be transmitted to the team of Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, as early as this Friday or Saturday.
The 27 member states (and Theresa May) also still have to agree what should be in the political declaration on the future EU-UK relationship.
This part of the divorce treaty is not legally binding - but it is symbolically important. At the moment the text is solely made up of a series of bullet points and headings. So the pressure is definitely on, leading up to the 25th.
But all this could be in vain if the Brexit deal is voted down by the UK parliament in a few weeks' time.
The EU knows this is a very real possibility.
I put the question to Michel Barnier on Wednesday night at his press conference - but, skilled politician that he is, he refused to engage.
Brussels is very keen indeed not to give the impression that the EU might change or come up with a "better" Brexit deal text if this one ends up being rejected in the House of Commons.
Mr Barnier quoted Theresa May as saying that this is a deal in the UK's interest.
In fact, he spoke so warmly about the deal - how hard EU and UK negotiators had worked on it, how successful they had been in protecting citizens' rights, the Irish border and the constitutional integrity of the UK - that one colleague commented to me it was as if Mr Barnier, known for his suave French manner, believed they had managed to conjure an exquisitely designed Faberge egg out of the complex Brexit process.
No wonder then that he didn't want to engage in the possibility of that egg getting smashed.
Truth be told, he's unlikely to face much trouble from the EU side.
He is off to Strasbourg on Thursday to schmooze the European parliament - which has a veto over the Brexit deal.
MEPs will look at the section of the withdrawal agreement on citizens' right with a particularly critical eye as that is the issue they tend most to focus on. But Mr Barnier has been careful to keep the parliament in the loop on negotiations throughout, so they're unlikely to reject a final agreement.
EU countries had also given Ireland an effective veto over the deal if Dublin were unhappy about the provisions for the Irish border.
But the Irish prime minister gave the green light to the draft text on Wednesday, so that is no longer an issue.
Spain and Gibraltar, and Cyprus and the UK military bases on the island were also thought to be potential pitfalls. The withdrawal agreement sorted them out too.
This leaves the concerns the UK's biggest EU trade partners (like France and Germany) had over the so-called "level playing field": ensuring that the UK was tied to extra EU regulations in the temporary customs relationship outlined in the Irish backstop, should it one day be triggered.
Well, about 100 pages of the draft withdrawal treaty are dedicated to these extra ties - on state aid, environment and labour regulations - ensuring that UK business should not have a competitive advantage over EU ones in a customs partnership.
Rights to fish in UK waters after Brexit have not yet been agreed, and the Spanish, French, Danish or Dutch will probably have something to say about that - but it's not a deal breaker at this stage.
So, those Europeans wary of political trouble that could disrupt or destroy the careful Brexit deal choreography between now and 25 November (and beyond) look fearfully at the politically volatile UK.
This led one EU civil servant late on Wednesday night to jab at the 585 pages of the draft Brexit treaty, muttering: "You know what? All this could still end up in the bin."
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
The thing is, this is Labour's deal. There's not a cigarette paper between them.
If the 6 tests we actually genuine and not internally contradictory, they should all be going down the lobbies with the wet tories, and kill off proper Brexit for a generation.
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Mordaunt had been seriously contemplating putting her letter in, but has found herself in a position where many of those above her are resigning - not a bad place to be for an ambitious, relatively new MP.
If she gets offered a role matching her ambition she'll stay loyal.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
As you said - its personal politics, not party or even national.
glasgowspur
Dimitar Berbatov
And that sums up this unholy mess, politicians eyes are lighting up at the opportunities it's presenting them. Not the country, not the party but them.
I don't see how any deal is going to get through parliament any time soon. Its not in politicians interests.
Brexit is dead.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
If they fail to deliver a satisfactory Brexit, the Tories could be out of power for 3 terms. Mordaunt might be in her 60s the next time they form a government
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Maybe, maybe not. Its not like Id anticipate great times under Corbyn/Labour either.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
But the right vote will be split much more between Conservative and UKIP than it was pre 2016. It will be like the Labour and SDP/LD division keeping Thatcher/Mayor in for so long
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Again, maybe-maybe not.
UKIPs complete fall in votes since the referendum shows they really were a one note party. With Brexit done, in whatever form it takes, what have they left?
monkeybarry
Ian Walker
But the Tory stock will have fallen so low you would have to monumentally fudge up to not get at least two terms.
And there are enough easy wins to get through the first time term looking at the very least stable, if not progressive.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Their vote disappeared when they achieved their goals. But now 52% of the population are feeling betrayed by a BINO deal. If UKIP sorted themselves out and kicked out the racists, they could have an opportunity to become the 2nd biggest party at the next election
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Corbyn is also too old now to do more than 1 term, so there will be the 'refresh' of his successor
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Possibly? I guess a lot depends on the situation Labour inherit, could be their hands are tied on a lot of what they might like to do.
Ifs buts and maybes, you think they can organise their way out of a wet paper bag? Im not sure Id give them the credit you do.
If Labour get a term, the Conservatives get to have a purge/rebrand, and the status quo will resume. I wouldnt forsee UKIP as a real player to be honest.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Michael Gove has ended speculation about whether he would follow fellow Brexiteers out of the cabinet in protest at Theresa May's Brexit deal.
The environment secretary won't be quitting because he wants to work with colleagues to "ensure the best outcome for the country," a source said.
By BBC Assistant Political Editor Norman Smith
Michael Gove is not resigning because he thinks that even at this very late hour, he is the person who can make Theresa May change course with Brexit.
This is a huge relief for Theresa May, who meanwhile has been carrying on with business as usual by trying to sell her deal.
Theresa May has made it absolutely clear that she is going nowhere.
Senior placed Tory MPs are saying they have reached the magic 48 letters needed for a vote of confidence against Theresa May, but Sir Graham Grady - chairman of the 1922 committee - is giving precious little away.
A Conservative party leadership challenge is most definitely looming, if not this morning or this afternoon, by the weekend.
Michael Gove is a bit of a man of mystery, but if he doesn't take the Brexit Secretary role, it begs the question of who would take that job.
The environment secretary won't be quitting because he wants to work with colleagues to "ensure the best outcome for the country," a source said.
By BBC Assistant Political Editor Norman Smith
Michael Gove is not resigning because he thinks that even at this very late hour, he is the person who can make Theresa May change course with Brexit.
This is a huge relief for Theresa May, who meanwhile has been carrying on with business as usual by trying to sell her deal.
Theresa May has made it absolutely clear that she is going nowhere.
Senior placed Tory MPs are saying they have reached the magic 48 letters needed for a vote of confidence against Theresa May, but Sir Graham Grady - chairman of the 1922 committee - is giving precious little away.
A Conservative party leadership challenge is most definitely looming, if not this morning or this afternoon, by the weekend.
Michael Gove is a bit of a man of mystery, but if he doesn't take the Brexit Secretary role, it begs the question of who would take that job.
glasgowspur
Dimitar Berbatov
We can't predict what's going to happen in the day, so talk of a three term government is fanciful.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I hate the customs union. I just had to pay an extra £14.20 customs charge for a record I bought from America, because some boy scout didn't tick the 'gift' box on the declaration label.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Leading Brexiteers in the cabinet have rallied behind Theresa May amid attempts to unseat her by Tory MPs.
Michael Gove said he "absolutely" had confidence in Mrs May as he confirmed he would not be following several other ministers out of the door.
And Liam Fox urged MPs to support the PM's draft Brexit agreement, saying a "deal was better than no deal".
It came as more Conservatives expressed unhappiness with Mrs May's leadership and urged a confidence vote.
The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said about 20 Tories have, so far, publicly stated they have submitted letters of no confidence in the PM over her handling of Brexit.
This is some way short of the 48 needed to trigger a vote under Conservative Party rules.
One of those to do so, ex-minister Mark Francois, said the draft agreement negotiated by Mrs May with the EU was "truly awful" and the prime minister "just doesn't listen" to concerns within her party.
Ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told the BBC's Politics Live that although he could be sure of the number of letters submitted, he believed it was "close" to 48 and a contest was "imminent".
If this happened, he suggested the European Research Group of Brexiteer Tory MPs, headed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, would "collectively agree" which single candidate was best-placed to deliver the Brexit they wanted and back them.
But Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Mrs May would win any contest "decisively" and "deserved to" since there was "no plausible alternative" to her approach.
Rumours had been rife that Mr Gove, a key figure in the 2016 Leave campaign, would follow fellow Brexiteers out of the cabinet in protest at the EU withdrawal agreement.
But the environment secretary, who reportedly rejected an offer to make him Brexit secretary after Dominic Raab's exit, told reporters on Friday he was focused on working in cabinet to get "the right deal in the future".
Asked if he had confidence in the PM, Mr Gove said: "I absolutely do."
He added: "I'm also looking forward to continuing to work with all my government colleagues and all my colleagues in parliament in order to make sure that we get the best future for Britain."
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox told an event in Bristol: "We are not elected to do what we want to do, but to do what is in the national interest."
Speaking in public for the first time since the withdrawal agreement was signed off by cabinet, Mr Fox said he hopes MPs "will take a rational and reasonable view" of the deal.
He added: "I hope across parliament we recognise that a deal is better than no deal, and businesses require certainty - it's in our national interest to provide certainty as soon as possible."
Mr Gove's decision to stay was a boost for Mrs May, who followed up a defiant Downing Street press conference on Thursday with a live phone-in on Friday morning on LBC radio, during which two callers said she should stand aside.
She compared herself to her cricketing hero Geoffrey Boycott who she said had "kept at the crease and carried on".
Ex-Culture Secretary John Whittingdale is among the latest Tory MP to demand a vote of confidence in the PM while a number of MPs, including Mr Francois and Adam Holloway, publicly tweeted copies of their letter.
But this prompted a blistering response from veteran Conservative MP Nicholas Soames.
Skip Twitter post by @NSoames
I am truly dismayed at the dismal behaviour of some of my Colleagues parading their letters to Graham Brady on TV in a vulgar and pathetic display of inferior virtue signalling #getagripwhatabouttheNationalInterest
EU ambassadors meet
Ambassadors from EU member states also met in Brussels on Friday morning to discuss the agreement.
The bloc's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, paid tribute to Mrs May, but said that the EU had to protect its principles even if there were political problems in the UK.
BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming said the consensus from the meeting was that the EU should keep calm and not provoke the situation in the UK.
The government unveiled its long-awaited draft withdrawal agreement on Wednesday, which sets out the terms of the UK's departure from the EU, over 585 pages.
But Mrs May is facing opposition from across the political spectrum to the draft deal, which must be approved by Parliament, with critics saying it will leave the UK indefinitely tied to the EU.
It is also understood that a group of cabinet ministers are also considering whether to try to force Mrs May to make some changes to the withdrawal deal.
Michael Gove said he "absolutely" had confidence in Mrs May as he confirmed he would not be following several other ministers out of the door.
And Liam Fox urged MPs to support the PM's draft Brexit agreement, saying a "deal was better than no deal".
It came as more Conservatives expressed unhappiness with Mrs May's leadership and urged a confidence vote.
The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said about 20 Tories have, so far, publicly stated they have submitted letters of no confidence in the PM over her handling of Brexit.
This is some way short of the 48 needed to trigger a vote under Conservative Party rules.
One of those to do so, ex-minister Mark Francois, said the draft agreement negotiated by Mrs May with the EU was "truly awful" and the prime minister "just doesn't listen" to concerns within her party.
Ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told the BBC's Politics Live that although he could be sure of the number of letters submitted, he believed it was "close" to 48 and a contest was "imminent".
If this happened, he suggested the European Research Group of Brexiteer Tory MPs, headed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, would "collectively agree" which single candidate was best-placed to deliver the Brexit they wanted and back them.
But Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Mrs May would win any contest "decisively" and "deserved to" since there was "no plausible alternative" to her approach.
Rumours had been rife that Mr Gove, a key figure in the 2016 Leave campaign, would follow fellow Brexiteers out of the cabinet in protest at the EU withdrawal agreement.
But the environment secretary, who reportedly rejected an offer to make him Brexit secretary after Dominic Raab's exit, told reporters on Friday he was focused on working in cabinet to get "the right deal in the future".
Asked if he had confidence in the PM, Mr Gove said: "I absolutely do."
He added: "I'm also looking forward to continuing to work with all my government colleagues and all my colleagues in parliament in order to make sure that we get the best future for Britain."
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox told an event in Bristol: "We are not elected to do what we want to do, but to do what is in the national interest."
Speaking in public for the first time since the withdrawal agreement was signed off by cabinet, Mr Fox said he hopes MPs "will take a rational and reasonable view" of the deal.
He added: "I hope across parliament we recognise that a deal is better than no deal, and businesses require certainty - it's in our national interest to provide certainty as soon as possible."
Mr Gove's decision to stay was a boost for Mrs May, who followed up a defiant Downing Street press conference on Thursday with a live phone-in on Friday morning on LBC radio, during which two callers said she should stand aside.
She compared herself to her cricketing hero Geoffrey Boycott who she said had "kept at the crease and carried on".
Ex-Culture Secretary John Whittingdale is among the latest Tory MP to demand a vote of confidence in the PM while a number of MPs, including Mr Francois and Adam Holloway, publicly tweeted copies of their letter.
But this prompted a blistering response from veteran Conservative MP Nicholas Soames.
Skip Twitter post by @NSoames
I am truly dismayed at the dismal behaviour of some of my Colleagues parading their letters to Graham Brady on TV in a vulgar and pathetic display of inferior virtue signalling #getagripwhatabouttheNationalInterest
EU ambassadors meet
Ambassadors from EU member states also met in Brussels on Friday morning to discuss the agreement.
The bloc's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, paid tribute to Mrs May, but said that the EU had to protect its principles even if there were political problems in the UK.
BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming said the consensus from the meeting was that the EU should keep calm and not provoke the situation in the UK.
The government unveiled its long-awaited draft withdrawal agreement on Wednesday, which sets out the terms of the UK's departure from the EU, over 585 pages.
But Mrs May is facing opposition from across the political spectrum to the draft deal, which must be approved by Parliament, with critics saying it will leave the UK indefinitely tied to the EU.
It is also understood that a group of cabinet ministers are also considering whether to try to force Mrs May to make some changes to the withdrawal deal.