Politics, politics, politics

[Gutter Boy]

Exactly. But people didn't vote to be worse off. People didn't vote for negatives did they? Okay they will accept some pain - especially if its abstract like a drop in GDP - but not a loss of services in the NHS because there aren't the staff or the revenue to pay for it.

When you pull it apart, Brexit offers so little (Sovereignty), and threatens so much (UK jobs and prosperity) it is extremely hard to make a rational case for it being in the UKs interests. The UK is losing jobs now - a number of banks taking small amounts of people to Amsterdam etc. The rates of investment into the UK has fallen, and the pound has fallen because every trader with a brain believes Brexit threatens the UKs prosperity. If Brexit is a success, it will be in 30 years time, and even then it is highly unlikely. We live in a global world, where free trade and cooperation are fundamental; and no Brexit is not opening up the UK. That is the most deluded notion of all, which ignores our current reality.

The banks leaving and the pound falling are good signs

The mean rebalancing the economy and more competitive exports. While jobs are at an all time high.

Also, the EU isn't global. It's a protectionist bloc. Britain will be much more global now.

 

[parklane1]

If you add the 'did not votes' to the No vote in 1975, join would have lost 58% to 42%, so by that logic we should never have joined.

We do not need two Spurmeup madness in here mate

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

The rest wasn't your dish of the day?

About as much as a night at the Opera would be. We went to the Ballet once, but as I often pay on adult websites to watch guys on cam prancing about in tights I did not mind the Ballet, but Opera no I had to draw the line somewhere and that is where I drew the line that I had drawn.

 

[SpurMeUp]

About as much as a night at the Opera would be. We went to the Ballet once, but as I often pay on adult websites to watch guys on cam prancing about in tights I did not mind the Ballet, but Opera no I had to draw the line somewhere and that is where I drew the line that I had drawn.

Red lines...you should be negotiating with the EU. Probably do a far better job. I was hauled to the Opera in Paris. Got smashed at dinner before - helpfully the frogs named the metro station Opera - then fell asleep through the show on a Parisian girls shoulder...not everything is bad in the EU.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Do we have to this one point at a time thing? Okay then...

Why won't there be the staff or the revenue to pay for it?


And lots, and lots of trade. And lower input prices, and the ability to compete against the EU, and the ability to compete against the rest of the world, and the ability to regulate in a manner that suits our economy, etc, etc, etc.


Exports of goods and services to the EU make up 14% of our GDP. Even a drastic cut in that trade would result in a drop in GDP of around 1-2%. That's incredibly unlikely - neither is it at all likely that none of that trade would be replaced by trade elsewhere, or by reduced import costs.

Are you 100% sure there will be lots and lots of trade? I don't know how you know this. However, we do know that the EU will not allow a 'cake and eat it' scenario where their members get worse terms than we get. They are on record saying this. And why would they? Thus, trade with the largest trading block in the world - the EU - will most likely be impacted.

I just did, it took me around 8 seconds. I'm more capable than most, but it's really not that diffictult if you actually want to .

That is debatable.

London was the world's financial centre before the UK joined the EU. EU membership makes some things a little easier and makes some costs a little smaller. If we can't brass plate those services into the EU (and the lawyers available to our financial institutions will be significantly better than those of the EU) then some jobs will be lost. Not nearly all of them, not even a majority of them, just enough so that those banks can claim to have a presence in the EU.

London will continue to be the centre for financial institutions because the people making the decisions in those branches still want to live and work in London. It has the right time zone, it has the right language, schools, property, supporting services, etc.

The UK was poorer before it joined the EU, that is fact. It wasn't a financial center anything like it is today. We had become the gateway to the EU. Amsterdam is probably the closest to London in its ease, English speaking, and ethics, hence Japans largest bank choosing it for operations post-Brexit. They also get hookers and party drugs, who needs London? http://uk.businessinsider.com/japan-biggest-bank-to-set-up-brexit-hub-in-amsterdam-2017-7?r=US&IR=T

Is that really why? Because most experts have claimed it's because Sterling had been artificially high for a while and this was a readjustment prompted by initial uncertainty.

Remind me, why is the recent drop in Sterling a bad thing?


Why isn't it opening up the UK? Leaving a protectionist bloc is opening ourselves up to trade. We don't have to be part of a closed club to be open - in fact it's quite the opposite.

Which experts? Sterling was high because the UK was a safe bet. Stable, respected, always run on a pragmatic sound financial footing. Not anymore! That and no other reason is why the pound is lower. Why is it a bad thing? It is a collective vote of no confidence in Brexit by the worlds currency traders. Anyone who has an iota of knowledge about fiance and economics doesn't rate the UKs chances - that is all. That's not conjecture, not my opinion, just the market providing a valuation of the UK now.

Re. open/ closed. Look at car parts. They come from everywhere currently. They flow from Romania, France, Germany etc. to Land Rover in Brum and Nissan in Sunderland, who assemble the car and sell the finished product back to the EU and all over the world. Post Brexit we won't sell more Land Rover cars to non-EU countries, certainly not many more. But the company who owns Land Rover will have to deal with a possible 10% WTO tariff on sales into the EU. It is further complicated - how will the UK will get all the components from the huge component manufacturers in europe? There maybe restrictions on these parts getting into the UK, and furthermore, Free Trade agreements (FTA) typically deem that a product has to be circa 50% made up of components made in that country to be included. So when we do strike a FTA with the EU we'll have to ensure most of the car was built here. Its complex, boring, threatens UK jobs, and is totally unnecessary.

In short, Brexit is not opening up trade, it is regressive.

 

[scaramanga]

Do we have to this one point at a time thing? Okay then...



Are you 100% sure there will be lots and lots of trade? I don't know how you know this. However, we do know that the EU will not allow a 'cake and eat it' scenario where their members get worse terms than we get. They are on record saying this. And why would they? Thus, trade with the largest trading block in the world - the EU - will most likely be impacted.




That is debatable.



The UK was poorer before it joined the EU, that is fact. It wasn't a financial center anything like it is today. We had become the gateway to the EU. Amsterdam is probably the closest to London in its ease, English speaking, and ethics, hence Japans largest bank choosing it for operations post-Brexit. They also get hookers and party drugs, who needs London? http://uk.businessinsider.com/japan-biggest-bank-to-set-up-brexit-hub-in-amsterdam-2017-7?r=US&IR=T





Which experts? Sterling was high because the UK was a safe bet. Stable, respected, always run on a pragmatic sound financial footing. Not anymore! That and no other reason is why the pound is lower. Why is it a bad thing? It is a collective vote of no confidence in Brexit by the worlds currency traders. Anyone who has an iota of knowledge about fiance and economics doesn't rate the UKs chances - that is all. That's not conjecture, not my opinion, just the market providing a valuation of the UK now.

Re. open/ closed. Look at car parts. They come from everywhere currently. They flow from Romania, France, Germany etc. to Land Rover in Brum and Nissan in Sunderland, who assemble the car and sell the finished product back to the EU and all over the world. Post Brexit we won't sell more Land Rover cars to non-EU countries, certainly not many more. But the company who owns Land Rover will have to deal with a possible 10% WTO tariff on sales into the EU. It is further complicated - how will the UK will get all the components from the huge component manufacturers in europe? There maybe restrictions on these parts getting into the UK, and furthermore, Free Trade agreements (FTA) typically deem that a product has to be circa 50% made up of components made in that country to be included. So when we do strike a FTA with the EU we'll have to ensure most of the car was built here. Its complex, boring, threatens UK jobs, and is totally unnecessary.

In short, Brexit is not opening up trade, it is regressive.

Wow. It's like you haven't read a single post of mine in this thread. That or have managed to just completely wipe them from your mind before posting.

You're still talking about a drop in EU trade as if it would have a major bearing on the UK economy, yet exports to the EU account for 14% of our GDP. In a worst case scenario where EU export take a massive hit and there is no upside (which is patently false) then the drop in GDP would be somewhere from 20%-40% of the drop in GDP between 2014 and 2015.

Your suggestion that financial institutions can just up and leave shows naivety to put it lightly. Amsterdam doesn't have our legal system or literally buildings full of lawyers trained to deal with the specifics of having these institutions around. It doesn't have the regulatory system we do and it doesn't have the supporting structures in place.

By the way, the Japanese bank you referenced - that's precisely the brass plating I was talking about. Shift 100 or so employees, enough to legally challenge the EU that you have an operation there, then carry on as normal.

You should try reading your last paragraph back to yourself. We take parts from Europe, put them together and then sell back to Europe. You then claim that breaking out of this closed loop is not opening up trade.

Edit:

And this is why the Sterling devaluation was a good thing:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKKBN19D12S

 

[StephenH]

The driving force and why there is Brexit is/was the voters dislike of foreigners and then them coming here.

Trade, federalism and et al, is a convenient smokescreen.

Anybody thinking it was for any other reason is kidding themselves.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Everything. Democracy and sovereignty are the most important things in politics. Freedom is more important than prosperity (red pill over blue pill).

If you can't change course, remove those with influence over your life, you are living under tyranny. Even broadly benevolent tyranny is still tyranny.

My Brexit Britain would be socially and culturally open, but economically sustainable and incentivising local products and a decrease in consumption (and production). Energy would be 100% renewable (like Uruguay) and produced local to where it is used. Financial services would be heavily pruned and a proper industrial strategy would focus on producing only useful things, planned obsolescence banned and everything in biodegradable packaging. And direction could be properly changed by elections, not permanently undermined by the interests of big business (which the EU protects).

Our thinking is very much aligned @Gutter Boy . Interesting.

 

[parklane1]

The driving force and why there is Brexit is/was the voters dislike of foreigners and then them coming here.

Trade, federalism and et al, is a convenient smokescreen.

Anybody thinking it was for any other reason is kidding themselves.

You would think in this day and age folks would stop using the racist card to blame most folks for voting for democracy. Alas there are still some who do not get it.

 

[StephenH]

You would think in this day and age folks would stop using the racist card to blame most folks for voting for democracy. Alas there are still some who do not get it.

"Voting for democracy" what are you talking about @parklane1. Voting is democracy and that is a wonderful thing. I'm am also NOT blaming anybody for anything. I'm just saying Brexit would not be happening if we removed this single most motivation subject of Brexit, imagination.
You are calling it "the Racist card" not me.

I find the dislike of migration a sad and undignified reason for voting to leave Europe. Many on here have articulated well other reason, sadly though migration dominated the vast majority of leavers out in the wider public.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Wow. It's like you haven't read a single post of mine in this thread. That or have managed to just completely wipe them from your mind before posting.

I like your independent thinking and (forgive me) back of an envelope economics. You think for yourself which I greatly respect. Why trust what others say and standard rhetoric? Too many do. But that doesn't mean I agree. You put cogent arguments together, even if it they do clash with most reasoned economic calculations and logic. It also doesn't tally with my own logic.

You're still talking about a drop in EU trade as if it would have a major bearing on the UK economy, yet exports to the EU account for 14% of our GDP. In a worst case scenario where EU export take a massive hit and there is no upside (which is patently false) then the drop in GDP would be somewhere from 20%-40% of the drop in GDP between 2014 and 2015.

While we are not a manufacturing nation anymore, we are always going to need to trade with Europe for physical goods, both the ones we consume and that we still sell. A drop in trade with our largest trading partner would be significant to the UK.

We exported £230,031m to the EU in 2015 and £259,995m with the rest of the world (much of that under EU trade agreements). Whichever way you cut it, that's a lot of trade from the UK to the EU and a drop off would not be good. Do you disagree with the following trading relationships are usually stronger with neighboring counties?

Your suggestion that financial institutions can just up and leave shows naivety to put it lightly. Amsterdam doesn't have our legal system or literally buildings full of lawyers trained to deal with the specifics of having these institutions around. It doesn't have the regulatory system we do and it doesn't have the supporting structures in place.

By the way, the Japanese bank you referenced - that's precisely the brass plating I was talking about. Shift 100 or so employees, enough to legally challenge the EU that you have an operation there, then carry on as normal.

I am not suggesting Banks can so very easily up and leave overnight. That is why they are making plans now. That is why Japans largest bank has put in place a facility in Amsterdam now, in case it requires a new base within the customs union. Are these banks irrational for making contingencies? No of course not. As with most Economists, they are concerned with Brexit. Should I wipe their logic from my mind, and follow yours instead?

You should try reading your last paragraph back to yourself. We take parts from Europe, put them together and then sell back to Europe. You then claim that breaking out of this closed loop is not opening up trade.

Edit:

And this is why the Sterling devaluation was a good thing:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKKBN19D12S

Here you go you can check out the detail in full, and come back to me regarding why the economists, industry insiders and journalists at the FT should not be concerned. What is it you know that they do not? https://www.ft.com/content/b56d0936-6ae0-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa

The fear is that Brexit will make trade harder. The car industry especially. In 2015 £2.5b was invested in the UK auto industry. That's a tonne of cash that effectively translates into UK jobs. For the first half of 2017 the corresponding figure is £322m. You don't need me to tell you that is a massive drop off. Brexit presents very real and difficult challenges for the UK. As of yet I have seen no one put together a clear plan of action as to how the UK will build new non-EU trade. Why is that? Or even talk about how to re-educate and re-skill people. March the 29th 2019 is what a year and a half away, and the UK is scrambling about trying to figure out how existing industries, like car manufacturing, can function post Brexit.

Amsterdam will quickly be able to service the banks if it needs to, it has an existing infrastructure to do so, it will just grow with them. On the other hand if Banks have to up and leave, UK services to banks will suffer. All the companies that feed the auto industry will likewise take massive hits if manufacturing moves into the single market. It's not some people scare mongering, the challenges are real. And they are so significant that I can not see Brexit occurring when we are faced with the clear reality of what Brexit will be. I wouldn't mind if it does occur. I like anarchy, and ripping up the established order. But it won't do those who have the least any good. They will suffer the most. And its not in the UKs interests certainly in the short term.

 

[parklane1]

"Voting for democracy" what are you talking about @parklane1. Voting is democracy and that is a wonderful thing. I'm am also NOT blaming anybody for anything. I'm just saying Brexit would not be happening if we removed this single most motivation subject of Brexit, imagination.
You are calling it "the Racist card" not me.

I find the dislike of migration a sad and undignified reason for voting to leave Europe. Many on here have articulated well other reason, sadly though migration dominated the vast majority of leavers out in the wider public.

I agree with that part of your post ( bolded), however you are way wrong when you say ( dominated the vast majority of leavers) , i know many who voted to come out and not one of them did so because of race. I fear you have got caught up with the smears that have been branded about by some of those who wanted to remain. Maybe you are not one of those who accused those who voted out of being racist but many have done and its been hinted at in this thread by a few.

 

[monkeybarry]

I agree with that part of your post ( bolded), however you are way wrong when you say ( dominated the vast majority of leavers) , i know many who voted to come out and not one of them did so because of race. I fear you have got caught up with the smears that have been branded about by some of those who wanted to remain. Maybe you are not one of those who accused those who voted out of being racist but many have done and its been hinted at in this thread by a few.

There is a large difference between racist, being xenephobic and being anti open border migration.
And yes anyone who said racist as a generalisation was wrong, but there was definitely a xenephobic angle to some of the campaigning that went beyond the socio economic arguments for managed EU migration. The rhetoric at times, mostly from the Murdoch media but also some high profile figures, was certainly that closing the borders would be a cure to many ills because migrants are an easy and relatively voiceless target. A closer look at banking and political decision making would have been better - but that doesn't sell papers.

 

[StephenH]

I agree with that part of your post ( bolded), however you are way wrong when you say ( dominated the vast majority of leavers) , i know many who voted to come out and not one of them did so because of race. I fear you have got caught up with the smears that have been branded about by some of those who wanted to remain. Maybe you are not one of those who accused those who voted out of being racist but many have done and its been hinted at in this thread by a few.

You are kidding yourself mate you really are, we are so xenophobic in the U.K. especially amongst the over 45's, it's quite sad.
It made a mockery of the Brexit vote. We all lose out as it makes us all look like neanderthals in the country.
We are leaving Europe which is fine, but it feels flawed due to shambles throughout the piece.
The country had a number done on it by in the main a group of far right wing xenophobic Conservative grandees.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I oppose freedom of movement for the same reason as Corbyn and McDonnell - economics. Importing unskilled labour is just big business's way of undercutting wages and conditions, to turn a greater profit and excuse investing in developing homegrown skills.

I very much support immigration of highly-skilled workers, foreign students, spouses and refugees from UN camps. But I'd like to see all these come on merit, not race (i.e. no priorisation of white Europeans, like the current system).

 

[parklane1]

You are kidding yourself mate you really are, we are so xenophobic in the U.K. especially amongst the over 45's, it's quite sad.
It made a mockery of the Brexit vote. We all lose out as it makes us all look like neanderthals in the country.
We are leaving Europe which is fine, but it feels flawed due to shambles throughout the piece.
The country had a number done on it by in the main a group of far right wing xenophobic Conservative grandees.

No i do not agree with that at all, i do not know where you live but IF that is the way things are there i feel sorry for you. Of course they are racists EVERYWHERE in EVERY COUNTRY ( and i have lived and worked in several so i know that is the case) but to say that Brexit ONLY happened because a main group of Conservative grandees did a number on the voting people is pure gonad*s ( imo) you of course have the right to disagree ( but if that is the case its not me that is fooling myself)

 

[parklane1]

There is a large difference between racist, being xenephobic and being anti open border migration.
And yes anyone who said racist as a generalisation was wrong, but there was definitely a xenephobic angle to some of the campaigning that went beyond the socio economic arguments for managed EU migration. The rhetoric at times, mostly from the Murdoch media but also some high profile figures, was certainly that closing the borders would be a cure to many ills because migrants are an easy and relatively voiceless target. A closer look at banking and political decision making would have been better - but that doesn't sell papers.

Of course there was a angle by some just like there was agendas by some who wanted to remain. However it was NOT the majority ( as some have suggested) and ( imo) its foolish to think that, because if that is the reason they think Brexit happened we will never learn.

 

[StephenH]

No i do not agree with that at all, i do not know where you live but IF that is the way things are there i feel sorry for you. Of course they are racists EVERYWHERE in EVERY COUNTRY ( and i have lived and worked in several so i know that is the case) but to say that Brexit ONLY happened because a main group of Conservative grandees did a number on the voting people is pure gonads ( imo) you of course have the right to disagree ( but if that is the case its not me that is fooling myself)

You are not fooling yourself, you are correct!

 

[parklane1]

You are not fooling yourself, you are correct!

I am not kidding myself either. unlike some.

 

[Baleforce]

No i do not agree with that at all, i do not know where you live but IF that is the way things are there i feel sorry for you. Of course they are racists EVERYWHERE in EVERY COUNTRY ( and i have lived and worked in several so i know that is the case) but to say that Brexit ONLY happened because a main group of Conservative grandees did a number on the voting people is pure gonads ( imo) you of course have the right to disagree ( but if that is the case its not me that is fooling myself)

I think they did, but they did so 35 years ago, not last summer, my mother, sadly now dead, was a committed racist, it was her hobby, my father, who must have been my liberal influence voted leave last july, and was surprised when I asked, "why the fudge did you do that, you have 4 grandchildren, what the fudge is wrong with you?" he thought he was doing the right thing, because immigrants take all our jobs right...

There's been a massive disconnect in this country, erroneous expectations and delusions of grandeur.

People can huff and puff about new trade until the cows come home (Dutch cows), but the facts are, that we had one successful industry in the UK, banking, and we are chasing that out the door as quickly as the education system has ejected generations of illiterate and lazy wasters who think they are owed a living. We don't have the intelligence or the work ethic to rebuild our manufacturing economy, and even if we did, it's pointless because machines can make everything now, manufacturing is a dead end, we need scientists and doctors and artists, people who can drive us on and open new economies.

But, this country has had enough of experts, of elites, of endeavour, thus we circle the drain.

Little england has never been littler. I'm ashamed to be british.