@SpurMeUp - I don't want to debate this again but on your last point on migration this actually changed quite significantly - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49420730
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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)
- Thread starter SpurMeUp
- Start date
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
It’s interesting, but the margin of error doesn’t really change the broad picture does it?
If the figures are around 70k net migration to the UK from the EU; and over 200k from rest of the world, a 10-15% margin or error is not going change the massive imbalance is it?
Then there is the whole issue of what kind of migration Brits want (polls show they prefer European migration to RoW). Brexit was sold as a way to control migration. But the detail was quickly shoved behind the sofa.
Brexit doesn’t address people’s migration concerns, and could actually inflame the issue as the UK increases its migration from the rest of the world to make up the shortfall.
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
The point of the article is that they don't have accurate statistics for every year but for 2016 they give a revised estimate which shows that they were likely around level.
Migration isn't really an issue for me - more pointing out it's important to use correct information when constructing an argument
ricky2tricky4city
Tom Huddlestone
It like a 6 month time warp.....it's all been done beforeThe point of the article is that they don't have accurate statistics for every year but for 2016 they give a revised estimate which shows that they were likely around level.
Migration isn't really an issue for me - more pointing out it's important to use correct information when constructing an argument
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
The point of the article is that they don't have accurate statistics for every year but for 2016 they give a revised estimate which shows that they were likely around level.
Migration isn't really an issue for me - more pointing out it's important to use correct information when constructing an argument
2016 is historic data, and a retrospective correction? There are 2018 migration figures available now, and correct me if I’m wrong, but the point remains that they show that most migration to the UK is from RoW.
If the 2018 figures have a similar margin of error as the 2016 ones, there is still a massive majority of RoW migration. So what is the point you are making?
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
Perhaps he means that post-2016 EU figures have likely been influenced by a fairly significant event that occurred roughly halfway through that year?
@Parklaner81 is correct in what I meant, you can't use terms like far more in your argument when it's the opposite and is likely to be around level is all I'm saying.
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
You seem to be saying 3 different things.
1) Mr81 is correct and you were saying EU migration dropped post vote.
2) There is not far more migration from RoW it is the opposite.
3) That migration is about the same from RoW and the EU.
The most recent figures are from 2018, and are appx 200,000 from rest of the world and around 70,000 from the EU. Even with a 20% margin or error, I think it is fair to say there is “far more” migration from RoW. So I’d fall back on PL81’s cogent point!
All I’m saying is immigration may have won Brexit, but Brexit may not address immigration. Is that fair to say?
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
I'm not trying to say anything, more an observation that when the topic of immigration comes up in relation to brexit people understandably are considered to be referring to the statistics pre referendum but it turned out that after the referendum those statistics were found to be unreliable.
It's very fair to say, Brexit may turn out not to address anything. It could be the biggest failure of modern times (I don't believe so but it could be) but I don't think we'll be able to truly give judgement for 10 years though of course we'll be arguing over every article and statistic that appears inbetween
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
I'm not trying to say anything, more an observation that when the topic of immigration comes up in relation to brexit people understandably are considered to be referring to the statistics pre referendum but it turned out that after the referendum those statistics were found to be unreliable.
It's very fair to say, Brexit may turn out not to address anything. It could be the biggest failure of modern times (I don't believe so but it could be) but I don't think we'll be able to truly give judgement for 10 years though of course we'll be arguing over every article and statistic that appears inbetween
Not sure statistics were front and centre pre-vote. No one in the remain camp seemed to get on top of the debate. Leave were well funded and cleverer using imagery of Turks queueing etc but on the rest I mostly agree.
I don’t actually think Brexit will be a massive disaster (if it happens). More a slow gradual step backwards for our nation. Brexit doesn’t really do anything (positive) it just downgrades the UKs trade and freedom. That is the frustration. A lot of good things lost, for what?
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
Have to purchase $100k worth of kit from the US/China in the next month.
The recent Brexit talk and the Uk borrowing 100% of its GDP has our currency at a new low.
Is Brexit the end of Sterling being a strong currency?
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
The recent Brexit talk and the Uk borrowing 100% of its GDP has our currency at a new low.
Is Brexit the end of Sterling being a strong currency?
Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
No, but spaffing WWII levels of social spending up the wall because our government likes to listen to alarmist scientists with a history of apocalyptic predictions will be.
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
You are blaming our current government? There is no doubt they are not particularly competent. The costs to the UK of that incompetence is huge. Lives lost and billions lost. These are the same folks who brought you Brexit. How confident can you be that they won't 'spaff' away the nation's trading future too?
Not very, but far more confident that we are less screwed outside than in.
The lives are minimal in grand scheme numbers - barely a blip over the longer term. What's concerning is the fact that industry remains heavily shut down in places, with no sign of being fully opened up any time soon.
Gilzeantoscore
Justin Edinburgh
Remember a month or so back, I said that the right wing media would begin their smears of Starmer? Well it has started already. That great journal of record, the Mail on Sunday has tried to paint him as some property tycoon, all because he bought a field behind his mum's house so she could continue her public service of re homing neglected donkeys. These papers have one purpose only, that being propaganda outlets for Tory governments.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Why does tony adams need a field behind her house.
Rorschach
Sonny Walters
It will be 1984 before you know it.