• Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara

Is the UK in recession?

Self-fulfilling prophecy: media talks about potential recession, companies get wary about their spending, trade goes down, recession happens. Then you're in a downward spiral.
 
Agreed - but the thing is, we aren't in a recession........near record levels of employed and tax payers!!

The graph showing Private and Public sector employment since Cameron came to power is very telling......I notice the world hasn't stopped turning with 400,000 fewer pen pushers....
 
Leeds Spur said:
Agreed - but the thing is, we aren't in a recession........near record levels of employed and tax payers!!

The graph showing Private and Public sector employment since Cameron came to power is very telling......I notice the world hasn't stopped turning with 400,000 fewer pen pushers....
Click to expand...

I agree it doesn't feel like a recession.

The bottom line is as long as everyone can keep fulfilling their financial commitments (that inc govt's, business and the general public) then there is very little acute pain and unrest. Record low interest rates have acted as life support (previous recessions not so lucky) for many.
A mortgage is financially such a large part of many peoples life, that any uptick(s) will leave many vulnerable.

I think people have tightened their belts, basically being prudent (proper prudent, not Gordon prudent). Imo interest rates are probably not going anywhere for a long while, but don't be surprised if we are in a long period of stagnation, and that for the media is a bit boring (ie nothing much to report) so any bits and pieces they can juice up, they will.

How's everyone else doing out there at the moment?
 
I'm down on last year but I'm very lucky to earn a good salary and I have good health, as do my family and long may it continue.

The thing with the Olympics is that they reminded us that this is actually a great country for all its foibles.......we have alot to be truly happy about.

That doesn't diminish for a second the very real issue of youth unemployment of hardship that people who lose their jobs feel.
 
I've earned more during the recession than ever before

Our company is growing at a phenomenal pace

We are hiring 2-3 people per month

Its not as bleak as the papers would make out

Its the debt that crippling us. It needs to be paid off.

Unfortunately Labour decimated our financials. It will take time to correct , perhaps 15-20 years
 
When the govenment agued that the public job cuts would be offset by private sector ones they were laughed at.

Since 2008 i've earned more than ever...this year has been tougher but that's down to my c*nt bosses putting my targets up 20%!! :)
 
southstand1882 said:
I've earned more during the recession than ever before

Our company is growing at a phenomenal pace

We are hiring 2-3 people per month

Its not as bleak as the papers would make out

Its the debt that crippling us. It needs to be paid off.

Unfortunately Labour decimated our financials. It will take time to correct , perhaps 15-20 years
Click to expand...

What like of work does your company do?
 
Modric THFC said:
Why look at opinion pieces if you want to know if the country is in recession?
The UK has had negative growth for the last 3 quarters http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=350.
A recession is when a country has negative growth for 2 quarters in a row.
The UK is in recession.
Click to expand...

The figures are flimflam.

The ONS get it wrong all the time. Out of the last 40 sets of data, 25 have been revised and 10 times they revised it by more than 0.7%!

Productivity increases in recession as companies lay off staff and drive efficiency to maintain margins. So it is inconceivable that we have highered 1 MILLION extra private sector employees since 2010 whilst the economy was contracting.
 
Modric THFC said:
Why look at opinion pieces if you want to know if the country is in recession?
The UK has had negative growth for the last 3 quarters http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=350.
A recession is when a country has negative growth for 2 quarters in a row.
The UK is in recession.
Click to expand...


This!

Just because a few people are doing well, does not negate economic reality. The fact is, some people always do well during recesions.. It is one of the great myths, that all business went backwards during the Great Depression. Some people actually made their fortunes in that time.

What was the figure for growth in Europe's strongest economy for the last quarter? It was .03%. Take it from me, Britain is in recession.
 
All recession means is we're not growing

Doesn't mean companies aren't doing well

If Spurs score 1 goal, then 2 goals, then 3 goals - growth

If Spurs score 4 goals, then 3 goals, then 2 goals - recession
 
As Gilzean said, winners and losers.

Just more winners with growth.

If we didn't have a growing population we wouldn't need growth! That's what happened with Japan.

The US needs 200,000 new jobs a month to satisfy the growing population and people of employment age coming into the Labour market.
 
I have always thought the way that we consider recession rather arbitrary and very short-sighted.

We are in recession with two quarters of negative growth, but consider these simplistic scenarios:

0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1 =0.4% growth over a year, NO RECESSION
0.3, -0.1, -0.1, 0.3 =0.4% growth over a year, WITH RECESSION
0.1, -0.2, 0.1, -0.1 = -0.1% growth over a year, NO RECESSION

Which is best? The first might just reflect long-term stagnation, while the second could represent some restructuring and the beginning of sustainable growth. The third is overall contraction but no recession. Whether we're in recession is not very helpful.

While you could argue it is just indicators, our obsession with recession means governments will prefer to avoid recession and adjust policy accordingly. We'd be much better off with government that focused on the long-term and was willing to accept a period of recession if it was felt better for long-term prospects. But they won't because the Opposition and Media will be at their throats.

Leeds Spur said:
If we didn't have a growing population we wouldn't need growth! That's what happened with Japan.
Click to expand...

It would make much more sense if they used per capita income for growth figures. There is not much point having growth and avoiding recession if the per capita income is actually falling.
 
Last edited:
With inflation on a downward trajectory and wages finally rising we should see real incomes grow by the end of the year
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back