We need probably 9-11 points.
We are unlikely to get anything at Liverpool or Chelsea as we get bummed there on our best days. Villa away will be difficult too. The remaining away games are Fulham, Sunderland and Wolves. Could see us getting points in those games - could also see us losing all 3.
For me, that means we have to win 3 or 4 from Palace, Forest, Leeds, Brighton and Everton at home. That's a 60% to 80% win rate in those games. In the last 28 home league games, our win rate has been slightly less than 15% (4 wins).
We are in deep, deep brick and all the performance indicators actually suggest we are going down. We're relying on the trend, that has been overwhelming for at least 12 months, not being a true representation of how good we are.
Some would call that optimism, some would call it delusion.