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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

johnola said:
The government and leading elites did not want Brexit for gods sake.
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Well they did an incredibly bad job of stopping it from happening didn’t they?

Why even have a referendum on the first place? Elected officials are meant to be sufficiently well informed to make these decisions for us. We do after all elect them to govern on our behalf, not to deflect major decisions and thereby try to avoid responsibility.

Also I would definitely call farage and tice part of the “elites”
 
Crab.C.Nesbitt said:

Please don’t vote for this piece of brick 💩

He really is a massive clam
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Some won't have it, they worked out his DEI pledge saves 24m , he is claiming they can claw back 7bn. Some bloke called up LBC to say "I reckon its even more than 7bn" despite not even working in the real world anymore, he was of course retired of costal town.

Its just politics for jokers
 
Crab.C.Nesbitt said:
Well they did an incredibly bad job of stopping it from happening didn’t they?

Why even have a referendum on the first place? Elected officials are meant to be sufficiently well informed to make these decisions for us. We do after all elect them to govern on our behalf, not to deflect major decisions and thereby try to avoid responsibility.

Also I would definitely call farage and tice part of the “elites”
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I get it everyone is stupid and to blame except for all the good things that happen.
 
I find it interesting that the likes of Neil and Ferrari seem intent on goading the answer that we back the attacks and are going to head into a another war. Call me mad, call me soft, but I for one am happy for diplomatic and well thought out responses than declaring war.
 
Crab.C.Nesbitt said:

Please don’t vote for this piece of brick 💩

He really is a massive clam
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Sadly there are too many naïve people in the UK, be that though simpleton factors or not having access to fact based articles, who will no doubt join the bandwagon believing they are doing the right thing. Of course there will be the base of fascist's who will vote and then these will all get backed up by a level of "normal" people who understand what he is but aren't in for the fascism but more because they are disillusioned with how things are and any change is perceived as a good one.

A very dangerous person is ol Oswald Farage imo
 
Crab.C.Nesbitt said:
Well they did an incredibly bad job of stopping it from happening didn’t they?

Why even have a referendum on the first place? Elected officials are meant to be sufficiently well informed to make these decisions for us. We do after all elect them to govern on our behalf, not to deflect major decisions and thereby try to avoid responsibility.

Also I would definitely call farage and tice part of the “elites”
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Bit of research:
-Farage was partly booted out of Coutts because he did not meet the criteria.
- His dad was allegedly an alcoholic who left when he was 5 years old.
- He did go to private school but went to work straight out of school and didn't go to university.
- As much as he is comfortably well off, I definitely do not see Farage as an "elite". He's from an affluent middle class background, nothing more.

- Tice but more claim to elite status as his mum was a philanthropist and involved in horse riding and stuff. Also went to private school. But again family wealth and background nowhere near elite status. I'd say bottom of the upper classes at best.
 
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Crab.C.Nesbitt said:
What good things have come of Brexit??? Have we got our sovereignty back yet?
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We haven’t lost it entirely. And nobody died.

But the broader point is the absolute arrogance that some posters feel that those who disagree with them on anything are stupid makes me cringe.

You roundly lost an argument seven years ago despite the remain leaders presenting a package of apocalyptic scenarios none of which have come to pass - house price crash, no trade deal with the US.

And when they lost it was all about racism not the clear and fundamental objection to a forced march into a federal Europe.
 
johnola said:
We haven’t lost it entirely. And nobody died.

But the broader point is the absolute arrogance that some posters feel that those who disagree with them on anything are stupid makes me cringe.

You roundly lost an argument seven years ago despite the remain leaders presenting a package of apocalyptic scenarios none of which have come to pass - house price crash, no trade deal with the US.

And when they lost it was all about racism not the clear and fundamental objection to a forced march into a federal Europe.
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We still don’t have a trade deal with the us, and the other trade deals we have agreed (eg with Australia and New Zealand) are widely acknowledged to be detrimental to the uk economy and far worse than when we part of the eu.

Below is a summary of the current and unfolding impact of Brexit on the Uk economy, in most areas it is severely detrimental.

Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy, with estimates suggesting a reduction in GDP, lower trade volumes, and decreased business investment. While some sectors like services have shown resilience, others, particularly goods trade, have experienced significant contraction. The long-term effects are still unfolding, but current assessments point to enduring structural constraints on productivity and economic growth.

Key Impacts:
    • Reduced GDP:
      Studies indicate that the UK's GDP is lower than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU. For example, one report estimates a £140 billion smaller economy in 2023 due to Brexit.
    • Lower Trade:
      Brexit has led to a decline in both goods and services trade, with some estimates suggesting a 10% drop in goods trade since 2019. Fewer varieties of British products are being exported to the EU due to increased red tape.
    • Decreased Business Investment:
      Uncertainty surrounding Brexit and increased trade barriers have discouraged both domestic and foreign investment.
    • Labor Market Impacts:
      The end of free movement has led to labor shortages in some sectors, contributing to reduced productivity and economic output.
    • Productivity:
      Brexit has introduced lasting structural constraints on productivity, including trade inefficiencies and labor shortages, which negatively impact investment and capital accumulation.
    • Sectoral Differences:
      While some sectors, like services, have shown resilience, others, particularly manufacturing, have been significantly impacted by increased trade barriers and supply chain disruptions.
    • Cost of Living:
      Some reports suggest that the average Briton is worse off due to Brexit, with higher costs for imported goods and reduced access to certain markets.
Long-Term Outlook:
The long-term effects of Brexit on the UK economy are still being assessed, but current estimates suggest a continued drag on growth and productivity. The full impact will depend on how the UK navigates its new relationship with the EU and other global partners, as well as how effectively it addresses the structural challenges created by Brexit.
 
You didn’t answer my question though, where are the brexit benefits?

Reese-mogg didn’t seem to be able to find any when he was the Brexit benefits minister and that post no longer exists which says it all really.
 
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Crab.C.Nesbitt said:
We still don’t have a trade deal with the us, and the other trade deals we have agreed (eg with Australia and New Zealand) are widely acknowledged to be detrimental to the uk economy and far worse than when we part of the eu.

Below is a summary of the current and unfolding impact of Brexit on the Uk economy, in most areas it is severely detrimental.

Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy, with estimates suggesting a reduction in GDP, lower trade volumes, and decreased business investment. While some sectors like services have shown resilience, others, particularly goods trade, have experienced significant contraction. The long-term effects are still unfolding, but current assessments point to enduring structural constraints on productivity and economic growth.

Key Impacts:
    • Reduced GDP:
      Studies indicate that the UK's GDP is lower than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU. For example, one report estimates a £140 billion smaller economy in 2023 due to Brexit.
    • Lower Trade:
      Brexit has led to a decline in both goods and services trade, with some estimates suggesting a 10% drop in goods trade since 2019. Fewer varieties of British products are being exported to the EU due to increased red tape.
    • Decreased Business Investment:
      Uncertainty surrounding Brexit and increased trade barriers have discouraged both domestic and foreign investment.
    • Labor Market Impacts:
      The end of free movement has led to labor shortages in some sectors, contributing to reduced productivity and economic output.
    • Productivity:
      Brexit has introduced lasting structural constraints on productivity, including trade inefficiencies and labor shortages, which negatively impact investment and capital accumulation.
    • Sectoral Differences:
      While some sectors, like services, have shown resilience, others, particularly manufacturing, have been significantly impacted by increased trade barriers and supply chain disruptions.
    • Cost of Living:
      Some reports suggest that the average Briton is worse off due to Brexit, with higher costs for imported goods and reduced access to certain markets.
Long-Term Outlook:
The long-term effects of Brexit on the UK economy are still being assessed, but current estimates suggest a continued drag on growth and productivity. The full impact will depend on how the UK navigates its new relationship with the EU and other global partners, as well as how effectively it addresses the structural challenges created by Brexit.
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A lot of those studies and assessments are total gonads though. If I just take the first bullet- "studies indicate that the UK's GDP is lower than it would have been had it remained in the EU, with one report suggesting a £140 billion reduction in 2023."

All of this analysis is done by projecting the trend of the UK's economic growth within the EU and then comparing this to current performance. But this doesnt factor in the general fall in economic growth trends across the EU itself (i.e. this suggests that the UK would have suffered a drop off in its growth trend had it remained in the EU).

Now the graph here shows the UK following pretty much the exact trend of all core European countries in terms of GDP across the period Brexit was enacted up to 2023 where we should supposedly be significantly down on where we would have been had we remained in the EU.

So unless you want to pretend that had we stayed in the EU we'd have bucked the trend of all major economies in the EU and our line would have pulled above the pack in that graph and be tracking above everyone else, then we can only conclude that all of those studies were wrong.
 

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Grays_1890 said:
I saw are report on the news that we have wiped 140bn of the economy since Brexit, not sure how true that is, sure that so of it is Covid and Ukraine impacting, but thats not a good start to life it seems.
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Its not true. Its based on a hugely flawed analysis that makes an assumption that our pre-Brexit growth trend would have continued had we stayed in, despite all major EU countries suffering a decline in growth rates in the period after Brexit occurred. Now the study authors can be excused for this because there is no reliable analysis that can actually be undertaken of what would have happened had we remained in the EU. The study is "what would have happened assuming our pre-Brexit growth trend had continued having nothing else to base it on". Based on the fact our growth trend has followed the trend of all major EU economies almost to the euro, its highly likely that the actual impact on GDP due to Brexit is as near to zero as can be reasonably determined.
 
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