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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Gutter Boy said:
It does when you see how donated the entire EU is by corporate lobbyists. And curtailing mass economic migration will have huge benefits for the working classes and their salaries
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The Tories have taken a hard swing to the right and are now dominated by zealots and Boris' ego. They do not represent the UK working class in any version of reality. Do you honestly think Mogg thinks of anything other than how much money he is going to make by shorting against the pound when the UK crashes out? His dad literally wrote the book on disaster capitalism. A low regulation, low tax economy will mean a low wage, reduced public services economy and only serves to further the ends of a select few. Brexit is another step towards the rise of oligarchy in the UK. The will of the people my arse.


(that will rile them up)
 
Rorschach said:
The Tories have taken a hard swing to the right and are now dominated by zealots and Boris' ego. They do not represent the UK working class in any version of reality. Do you honestly think Mogg thinks of anything other than how much money he is going to make by shorting against the pound when the UK crashes out? His dad literally wrote the book on disaster capitalism. A low regulation, low tax economy will mean a low wage, reduced public services economy and only serves to further the ends of a select few. Brexit is another step towards the rise of oligarchy in the UK. The will of the people my arse.


(that will rile them up)
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https://www.ft.com/content/72db9e42-be23-3b5f-92fb-7e2d2079d51c
 
Rorschach said:
Paywall. But I imagine it is something about making you richer.
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Lol, no. The FT went big for remain early on and has stayed that way. They think Brexit will bankrupt me.

September 12, 2019 12:13 pm by Jamie Powell , John Burn-Murdoch and Thomas Hale


Yesterday the Byline Times outlined some £4.6bn of aggregate short equity positions from hedge funds that, the site claimed, “directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign”, and thus a no deal Brexit.

The inference is that hedge funds have used their financial might to influence the outcome of Brexit via political donations and are now standing to benefit through short positions in UK companies.

The problem is, it doesn’t make any sense. Here are a few of the problems with the article:

  • Hedge funds contain multitudes. Take Marshall Wace, which boasts £40bn of assets under management. It’s run by pro-Brexit Paul Marshall (cited in the article), and pro-Remain Ian Wace (not cited in the article).

  • UK stocks often have little exposure to the UK economy. Take Cineworld, which according to the data Byline Times cited, has seen the biggest increase in short interest in the past month. But 75 per cent of its revenue was from the US in the first half of 2019, according to the company’s latest interim results.

  • Equity outcomes are explicitly uncertain — what is a short position on a “no deal Brexit”? A short position on any company? A short position could also be a play on remain. For instance, a company might benefit from a stronger dollar, or less EU regulation.

  • Hedge fund strategies are not simply running grand macro strategies on the fate of a nation. To mention Marshall Wace again, it runs a quantitative strategy called TOPS, which aggregates and makes decisions based on external investment research.

  • The most-shorted companies have short theses which have nothing to do with Brexit, like Thomas Cook (over-leveraged) or Kier Group (over-leveraged).

  • A fund might be short because of arbitrage opportunities, or to hedge a long position (which might contradict the notion it is betting on no deal).

  • The biggest single donor to either campaign was Lord Sainsbury, who donated £4.2m to the Remain campaign (source: Transparency International). Of the £16.4m contributed by the top ten donors to either campaign, 58 per cent went to Leave and 42 per cent to Remain.

  • As Louis Goddard from Global Witness pointed out on Twitter, there also fundamental problems with how the data has been presented.
More to the point, it’s not clear what exactly the authors are alleging. Is the accusation that all donations are motivated by profits, rather than ideology? Or could it now be the case that, with a no deal looking probable, they might be positioning their portfolios accordingly? That’s assuming, of course, they have a mandate from their investors to position their portfolios accordingly.
 
Rorschach said:
The Tories have taken a hard swing to the right and are now dominated by zealots and Boris' ego. They do not represent the UK working class in any version of reality. Do you honestly think Mogg thinks of anything other than how much money he is going to make by shorting against the pound when the UK crashes out? His dad literally wrote the book on disaster capitalism. A low regulation, low tax economy will mean a low wage, reduced public services economy and only serves to further the ends of a select few. Brexit is another step towards the rise of oligarchy in the UK. The will of the people my arse.


(that will rile them up)
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Great post!
 
scaramanga said:
Lol, no. The FT went big for remain early on and has stayed that way. They think Brexit will bankrupt me.

September 12, 2019 12:13 pm by Jamie Powell , John Burn-Murdoch and Thomas Hale


Yesterday the Byline Times outlined some £4.6bn of aggregate short equity positions from hedge funds that, the site claimed, “directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign”, and thus a no deal Brexit.

The inference is that hedge funds have used their financial might to influence the outcome of Brexit via political donations and are now standing to benefit through short positions in UK companies.

The problem is, it doesn’t make any sense. Here are a few of the problems with the article:

  • Hedge funds contain multitudes. Take Marshall Wace, which boasts £40bn of assets under management. It’s run by pro-Brexit Paul Marshall (cited in the article), and pro-Remain Ian Wace (not cited in the article).

  • UK stocks often have little exposure to the UK economy. Take Cineworld, which according to the data Byline Times cited, has seen the biggest increase in short interest in the past month. But 75 per cent of its revenue was from the US in the first half of 2019, according to the company’s latest interim results.

  • Equity outcomes are explicitly uncertain — what is a short position on a “no deal Brexit”? A short position on any company? A short position could also be a play on remain. For instance, a company might benefit from a stronger dollar, or less EU regulation.

  • Hedge fund strategies are not simply running grand macro strategies on the fate of a nation. To mention Marshall Wace again, it runs a quantitative strategy called TOPS, which aggregates and makes decisions based on external investment research.

  • The most-shorted companies have short theses which have nothing to do with Brexit, like Thomas Cook (over-leveraged) or Kier Group (over-leveraged).

  • A fund might be short because of arbitrage opportunities, or to hedge a long position (which might contradict the notion it is betting on no deal).

  • The biggest single donor to either campaign was Lord Sainsbury, who donated £4.2m to the Remain campaign (source: Transparency International). Of the £16.4m contributed by the top ten donors to either campaign, 58 per cent went to Leave and 42 per cent to Remain.

  • As Louis Goddard from Global Witness pointed out on Twitter, there also fundamental problems with how the data has been presented.
More to the point, it’s not clear what exactly the authors are alleging. Is the accusation that all donations are motivated by profits, rather than ideology? Or could it now be the case that, with a no deal looking probable, they might be positioning their portfolios accordingly? That’s assuming, of course, they have a mandate from their investors to position their portfolios accordingly.
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I won't lie. I got bored quickly and didn't finish that. Long live the revolution, or the oligarchy, or money for hedges. Woohoo!
 
Gutter Boy said:
You don't think it's odd that in brexit the Tories have become champions of the working classes and the state, while labour are promoting the interests of big business? A complete reversal of traditional assumptions
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Who said propaganda doesn't work, as it has clearly affected GutterBoy? My friend, just because Cameron, May and the albino Clown Shoe say it, and the Sun reports it, doesn't make it so.
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
Who said propaganda doesn't work, as it has clearly affected GutterBoy? My friend, just because Cameron, May and the albino Clown Shoe say it, and the Sun reports it, doesn't make it so.
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I'm a green who typically wouldn't vote Tory in a million years. But they've just ended up on the noble side on this issue; a bit like they did on slavery with wilberforce and gay marriage with Cameron. Stopped clock maybe
 
Rorschach said:
The Tories have taken a hard swing to the right and are now dominated by zealots and Boris' ego. They do not represent the UK working class in any version of reality. Do you honestly think Mogg thinks of anything other than how much money he is going to make by shorting against the pound when the UK crashes out? His dad literally wrote the book on disaster capitalism. A low regulation, low tax economy will mean a low wage, reduced public services economy and only serves to further the ends of a select few. Brexit is another step towards the rise of oligarchy in the UK. The will of the people my arse.


(that will rile them up)
Click to expand...



Craziest thing is the Tories are proposing to borrow a crap load of cash to pay for Boris' promises (Police, Education, tax cuts etc..) at a time where we know a large economic downturn in the shape of Brexit is about to occur.

You just could not make it up - or take them seriously!
 
Gutter Boy said:
I'm a green who typically wouldn't vote Tory in a million years. But they've just ended up on the noble side on this issue; a bit like they did on slavery with wilberforce and gay marriage with Cameron. Stopped clock maybe
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Yeah the 'noble side' you know all those zero hour contracts, a gutted NHS, endless austerity, yep the workers have so much to be grateful to the Tories for. You must smoke some great drugs mate.
 
When you lose an election and don't turnover power, that's actually failing the fundamental test of democratisation that is applied to states emerging from dictatorships
 
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