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Would relegation be that bad?

Our loans have a mixture of maturities. I think we have been taking on new debt as our existing loand mature. Finding new credit lines at low interest rates would be extremely difficult if we were in the championship. There are also stories that our debt covenants state that we have to carry a certain level of liquidity. It would be difficult for us to carry those level of liquidity in the event of relegation, penalties would be incurred if we didn't meet our covenants. We would definitely need a big firesale of players to stay afloat. I think we could probably sustain two years in the championship. If we didn't come up in year two then I think we'd need new owners (or at least large liquidity investors).

The good news of course is that we have just increased our chances of staying in the league by a massive amount now that we have sacked Frank.

I have heard EXACTLY this. I also heard the other dreaded 'R' word in the mix. I think many are not seeing the wood for the trees. These next 12 games are among the most important in our history. That is not hyperbole.

I further agree with your final sentence. Anyone who comes in and tells these players they are
a) good players and
b) allows them to play football
will (IMO) be able to get the necessary survival points.
 
Here’s a PL predictor thing.


Here's my predicted table:
View attachment 21631

West Ham have a lot of difficult matches left, I think they'll struggle more than us. I think we’ll make it.
I had us in 17th on 40 points. West Ham 18th on 38 points.
Forest and Brighton on 43 points (I may well have been too kind to Forest here thinking about it).
Palace on 44 points, Leeds and Bournemouth on 45.

Too close for comfort!
 
Including NFFC's upcoming visit, we actually share all of our remaining fixtures (opponents-wise) with either West Ham or Forest or both (8 with West Ham, 7 with Forest). In other words, if we can at least match their results in those games (including, quite importantly, not losing at home to Forest), we should be ok. If we can't, then maybe we don't deserve to stay up, even with our 5-point head start over Spam (which, of course, was 9 points 2 games ago).

Not that it means a lot, but in the corresponding reverse fixtures, we were 9 points better off than West Ham and 4 points worse off than Forest. Of the unshared remainder, West Ham gained 4 points from their reverse fixtures, Forest 2.
 
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Trying to predict football results, particularly for multiple teams over 12 games, is a waste of time. Everyone will drop points and pick up points you don't expect.

Our survival or fate will be sealed by Leeds, Palace, Forest, Brighton and Everton at home. We lose all of those games (I don't believe we will) and we'll go down. We win 3 of them, we'll stay up because we'll pick up points elsewhere.

The next two games, I'm expecting a point or two max. If we do better than that, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I just hope that if those results go against us, the fans don't turn on Tudor because we all need to be behind the team and manager when Palace come to our place.
 
Trying to predict football results, particularly for multiple teams over 12 games, is a waste of time. Everyone will drop points and pick up points you don't expect.

Our survival or fate will be sealed by Leeds, Palace, Forest, Brighton and Everton at home. We lose all of those games (I don't believe we will) and we'll go down. We win 3 of them, we'll stay up because we'll pick up points elsewhere.

The next two games, I'm expecting a point or two max. If we do better than that, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I just hope that if those results go against us, the fans don't turn on Tudor because we all need to be behind the team and manager when Palace come to our place.

Do not hold your breath mate.
 
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