Your argument is based on Israel being honest and correct on its assumption of the threat (particularly nuclear threat) of Iran.
Since something like 1992 BIBI has been saying that Iran is weeks away from a Nuclear weapon. They were not weeks away in 1992 were they? We can agree on that right?
BIBI stated that if Sadam was toppled that would be a major benefit to the world. Well that led to a million lives lost, boosted the rise of global terrorism and directly led to the rise of Isis. And at least to significant extent the refuge crisis. I think we can agree that he was wrong/lieing there right?
His government is on the brink of starving people in Gaza right now, and his government is talking openly about genocide or at the very least ethnic cleansing. That’s wrong, we agree on that right?
Now Hamas are cünts and what happened on October the 7th is disgraceful (not strong enough a word). but BIBI facilitated the funding of them (it’s documented) to undermine the Palestinian Athority and particularly the two state solution. We can agree he was wrong there right?
Now BIBI is in huge legal trouble in Israel, and there is an argument to be made that attacking Iran on the pretext of there nuclear capabilities- again something he has been claiming is weeks away since 1992 is beneficial to keeping him out of prison (and I’m not talking about internationally I’m talking in Israel).
Now you can and indeed do claim that Israel’s Intelligence is of remarkable standards and therefore we should believe them when they claim Iran is on the brink of Nuclear weapons (something that has been claimed since 1992) but they can be wrong right? Like they were wrong on October the 7th right? We agree on that right?
Now when you answer this. Please do address all the points raised.
And with this in mind, I just don’t want anyone to get involved in this conflict. Israel has decided to attack Iran… in my mind directly because of Bibi’s on selfish interest. Not even in Israel’s interests (it’s hurting its economy greatly). But they done it… so let them fight it out. That’s fair right?
My argument is that Israel likely has a right of self defence in attacking Iran's military infrastructure because:
- pretty much everyone accepts that Iran is ultimately behind the intelligence, resources and weaponry that was required for Hamas to pull off the Oct 7th attack
- That Iran is ultimately behind the supply of Hamas and Hezbollah with long range rockets and missiles that are being launched regularly at Israel (and largely being intercepted by their air defences)
- That Iran is behind the supply of the Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles that are targeting Israeli shipping and other shipping destined for Israel.
The area of international law that would be debatable is would an extention of those attacks to (what Iran claims is) civil nuclear infrastructure is "proportionate" to the threat Israel faces from Iran....I think that is TBC.
As to intelligence, because intelligence was wrong about Iraq WMD doesnt mean you shouldn't act on intelligence in the future. There was good intelligence passed to the Americans pre 9/11 that a significant attack was being planned and it wasnt acted upon. And 1000s died as a result.
Intelligence is never evidence and so its always a risk acting on it or not acting on it. The people that have to make these decisions unlikely sleep easy.
Is Iran with nuclear weapons a tolerable threat and if it isn't a tolerable threat, how intolerable is the threat (i.e. how much "up to chance" are you going to leave it when considering intelligence? Thats what the decision makers have to decide.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and clearly the "Iraqi WMD" intelligence was deeply flawed but its easy to rip the decisions apart in the aftermath of not finding any WMD capability there but context is that you were reeling from unprecedented terrorist attacks, the threat of dirty bombs falling into hands of terrorist organisations that had developed capability to evade counter terrorism and target large cities like NYC and London and you had a rogue dictator in Saddam that had been refusing access to UN weapons inspectors for years ......so do you now sit on that? If you get it wrong either way you're f***ed.
Similarly, for Israeli, Iran proxies like Hamas showing a better ability to organise and evade intelligence increases the "is Iran on verge of developing a nuclear warhead" threat exponentially. Because if Iran does and *allows* one to fall into the hands of Hamas or Hezbollah....well you can imagine....
