Politics, politics, politics

[scaramanga]

When you go into these negotiations Scara do you ever think what you would say / do / want if you were in the other persons position? I cant be bothered to go through every point you bring up as until its played out we do not really have a definitive answer - looking at both sides it certainly appears to me that we are negotiating from a position of weakness.

If I'm going to have to negotiate across a table (rather than over something less formal like golf or dinner) then I'll usually have a few people spend the week in advance getting me data - piles and piles of data. On the whole I like to think I'm an amiable person face to face and like to keep that during discussions. Stature also helps though - it's ridiculous but being taller and generally bigger than the other person puts one in a position of strength. Most of the time I'll speak with an entirely regionless accent, but certain types (especially your stereotypical proud Yorkshireman) will get their backs up as soon as they hear that - in which case I can speak as colloquially as anyone on our shop floor. I find negotiating with women helps - I am an incredibly beautiful specimen of the human form and can usually bring negotiations in my direction fairly easily (that last bit is mostly a joke, but a little bit not).

I find that the right questions and well-placed silences will ensure the other person/team has played their hand fully before I have to start on what I want. My trick really is to ensure you have thoroughly exhausted all of their fronted and hidden demands before you start talking about your own - that leaves them nowhere to go once you start picking things off.

Mostly though, I don't get into this kind of negotiating with customers or suppliers - it doesn't lead to a healthy working relationship. This stuff is for regulatory agencies, councils, etc. - those who begin from a position of being antagonistically difficult.

In answer to your question, of course I analyse what the other person or people want/need. The two most important factors in this kind of negotiation are to simultaneously, fully comprehend the human element behind their wants and needs and how they can convince themselves they are fulfilled without being so, whilst having a complete disregard for them as a person. They are merely a tool with which you can lever the situation to fit your needs.

 

[Grays_1890]

3m highly qualified, employed people, that a liberal democracy would never allow to be booted out. Peoples boyfreinds, mothers, key personnel. The EU woudl laugh in your face. Not only would they happily take back people who are in the main highly skilled and useful, it is a threat that no one but a dictator could ever realise. So its not a bargaining chip. Its a fantasy.

Serious question as I do not know the answer but does is the EU not worried that these high intelligent and qualified people might not abandon our ship rather than the other way round?

 

[scaramanga]

Do you think the people on the other side are stupid? If we can discern that its not ever going to happen that we kick out these people, why do think the EU are incapable of coming to the same conclusion?

Because only we will know if we actually will or not. Much of this will be played out in the press - how do you think Poland feels about the idea of 1M people turning up on their doorstep used to a high quality of life without jobs to come back to? The threat is enough, the threat is always enough.

The legality of the financial commitments made over the past years makes no odds. You are missing the point. It's a simple: pay up what you committed to in the past, or else we won't give you access to our 500m consumers. Highly simple. Any come backs? Not really. Shave a bit off here are there.

Access to their consumers is not for the EU to give. All they can do is set tariffs (maximum possible is WTO levels) and paperwork requirements (which cannot be discriminatory in their nature).

So the trade off (as the EU has already made clear) is ease/cost of access vs how much we pay in. If we pay the whole lot, they'll likely make access very easy and cheap - if we pay nothing, then it'll be WTO terms. You're making it way more complicated and emotional than it actually is.

We've already lost with a hard exit, that much is clear. We won't have much say in regulation (that we'll end up following), we will lose some free access to 500m consumers and we'll likely lose exports to the EU and pay more for imports. We win by working with countries who are less advanced and much much further away. It doesn't makes sense.

Those less advanced countries are far cheaper to buy imports from and come with far less red tape. The EU will still buy from us and sell to us - the goverment can offset most of the extra cost of selling with the money saved from EU contributions.

But as for a bargaining position, the best is: we would like to work closely with you, we love the EUs culture and civilisation, we are into you, but have to deliver this mandate, help us to it.

Ironically the Tory hardline approach will do more to help the EU than a conciliatory approach, as a) brexit cancellation is possible and b) we'll end up being made a example of, why not to leave.

I have seen next to nothing on a vision for the UK post exit. Nothing. It's shameful. Here is this supposed opportunity, yet we've presented no representations on what it would look like. If we had, that would be a small bargaining chip. To show the UK has a vision and purpose. I don't see that sadly.

Either I've completely misread the people talking publicly on behalf of the EU (and I rarely misread people) or you're just wrong about that. The best (and most likely after all the posturing has died down) position is "We want to trade with you, you want to trade with us, let's find a way that we can do that".

 

[r-u-s-x]

Yes we can have access at WTO levels but that's not what we want we want a special deal that reduces tariffs and allows services (including banking) to be included. Getting access at WTO levels any one can get.

Think you are also underestimating the desire of those in the EU (leaders) to keep the rest of the EU together and that will also be a huge consideration, short term pain (no deal with UK) may be part of a longer term plan (no one else leaves in the near future). This does not mean its a "punishment" but the deal they make is one that they consider better for themselves over the longer term.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Serious question as I do not know the answer but does is the EU not worried that these high intelligent and qualified people might not abandon our ship rather than the other way round?

they have already done "the other way round", they are here already.

 

[scaramanga]

Yes we can have access at WTO levels but that's not what we want we want a special deal that reduces tariffs and allows services (including banking) to be included. Getting access at WTO levels any one can get.

Think you are also underestimating the desire of those in the EU (leaders) to keep the rest of the EU together and that will also be a huge consideration, short term pain (no deal with UK) may be part of a longer term plan (no one else leaves in the near future). This does not mean its a "punishment" but the deal they make is one that they consider better for themselves over the longer term.

I don't think that's a level of short term pain the voters in places like Germany will accept.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I don't think that's a level of short term pain the voters in places like Germany will accept.

In Germany they are used to long term thinking though - for example, look at the investment they allowed to go into Green energy at a greater cost than non-green as they could accept that it brings a gain in the long term.

 

[scaramanga]

In Germany they are used to long term thinking though - for example, look at the investment they allowed to go into Green energy at a greater cost than non-green as they could accept that it brings a gain in the long term.

That's very different to a drop in revenue for a lot of businesses though. Spending a little more for long-term gain is very different from slicing chunks out of revenue.

Even if the net effect were the same (it's usually not), they would both be viewed very differently.

 

[r-u-s-x]

we will see - only two years to go now and that will fly by.

 

[the dza]

We could send Scara to conduct the negotiations, I'm sure he'd do a fine job; although I fear my wage would drop to 75p an hour in the process.

But if we want the best possible result, there is only one person for the task. A negotiator that has reduced many grown men to tears. I give you...

 

[scaramanga]

We could send Scara to conduct the negotiations, I'm sure he'd do a fine job; although I fear my wage would drop to 75p an hour in the process.

But if we want the best possible result, there is only one person for the task. A negotiator that has reduced many grown men to tears. I give you...

You do raise a serious point there. If we are so concerned about immigration, one of the best ways to reduce it would be to reduce the minimum wage and levels of benefits.

 

[the dza]

You do raise a serious point there. If we are so concerned about immigration, one of the best ways to reduce it would be to reduce the minimum wage and levels of benefits.

If EU migrants end up being treated the same as non-EU migrants currently are, then they will not be able to compete for minimum wage jobs nor have recourse to public funds until they have been here a number of years.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Immigration will stay high - we will still have immigration competing for minimum wages we just wont have to pay them benefits - it was kind of the point of this hole exercise.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Serious question as I do not know the answer but does is the EU not worried that these high intelligent and qualified people might not abandon our ship rather than the other way round?

The EU has 500m people. Its taken in far more refugees. Intelligent multilingual people are not a problem for any country, a brain drain is always a problem for nations. So the loss would be ours. What may well happen is the more able EU people depart if the economy slows, and we get left with the less able people. So many nuances, its very difficult to model. That's why no one knows a. what brexit will look like and b. how it might play out - if they are honest.

 

[r-u-s-x]

You do raise a serious point there. If we are so concerned about immigration, one of the best ways to reduce it would be to reduce the minimum wage and levels of benefits.

lowering the standard of living at the bottom end? Also on its own this would have little effect on immigration though would it as long as other places have it worse we will still attract.

Without the immigration we have (at the bottom end) I would think we would be approaching NAIRU so wage levels are too low rather than high in a non immigrant UK.

 

[scaramanga]

Immigration will stay high - we will still have immigration competing for minimum wages we just wont have to pay them benefits - it was kind of the point of this hole exercise.

Not if our minimum wage is less than that in Romania. The only immigration then would be at the higher end of the pay scale.

 

[scaramanga]

lowering the standard of living at the bottom end? Also on its own this would have little effect on immigration though would it as long as other places have it worse we will still attract.

Without the immigration we have (at the bottom end) I would think we would be approaching NAIRU so wage levels are too low rather than high in a non immigrant UK.

Who said we should be offering more than the least?!

 

[r-u-s-x]

Not if our minimum wage is less than that in Romania. The only immigration then would be at the higher end of the pay scale.

Minimum wage is a floor not a ceiling - but following your logic would it not have to be less than India?

 

[r-u-s-x]

Who said we should be offering more than the least?!

I think its desirable and would suggest most of the electorate do as well, hence even our main right wing party does not have this as a aim.

 

[scaramanga]

Minimum wage is a floor not a ceiling - but following your logic would it not have to be less than India?

We don't have open borders with India and have what appears to be a robust immigration control.

My point was people's (unfounded) concerns about EU immigration.