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Politics, politics, politics

Danishfurniturelover said:
Airport

British and Irish Citizens



It was the Irish government that pleaded for that back in the day and also that Irish citizens be given all the same rights as British citizens.

I love Ireland have spent a lot of time over there, my extended inlaw family are super, but I have always felt you can not have your cake and eat it, if you want your independence and I support that even before I met Lucy(not the violent path to it) have it just do not ask to be treated the same as British citizens. It is the sort of attitude that makes people think some countries and the EU are just out to take as much out of the UK as possible. Really to call it as it is, it is all about money it is all anyone wants, it is all the Irish government were really concerned with.

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...-brexit-affect-the-irish-in-britain-1.2712303
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Interesting article, until the last part about Scotland, it's far from the uncertainty that Scotland will become independent that this article portrays.
If though as the writer claims deals will be done for the Irish then it kind of flys in the face of the remainers saying there is way deals will be struck over anything.
Everyone will want to get on with life and make the best of it, I can't see the EU be I g any different.
 
I'm just watching this Question Time Brexit program...David Davis really does look like Quato from Total Recall.
 
I watched it and Clegg was decent enough to be fair, is experience in frontline politics was evident, polished Media Skills.
 
So the C Ya letter goes in tomorrow, and negotiations commence. Everyone starts off nice, but soon the EU says you owe us 50 big ones - £50 billion - and it descends into a pantomime. Oh no we don't! Oh yes you do...and forget free EU trade if you don't cough up.

How's this going to play out? The EU doesn't need to do us any favours, in fact if anything it needs to show we're worse off out. Despite many of the Leave campaign saying we'd remain in the single market, now their tune has changed completely! The most dramatic of U-turns has taken place without so much as a sniff. Many in UKIP etc have gone from saying we'd probably be like Norway: in the single market but out of the EU, to screw e-you, Hard Brexit, we'll take WTO terms, how do you like that!? Well we would raise money with the import tarrifs, but at what cost? Imported things will be more expensive for us to buy, and our exports will reduce, surely? Or is free trade not what its cracked up to be?

What do you think the odds are of Brexit collapsing? And what path could a collapse take? How would politicians save face and deliver an exit to brexit?

LePenn getting elected might save everyone, allowing for a paired down EU, but its unlikely she will triumph.

There is one other outcome no one has really speculated on, maybe because its not a real option: May doing what Cameron was supposed to, renegotiate our terms of membership. Do everyone a favour - including the 2 thirds of the UK population that didn't vote Leave - and improve the terms of our membership, and get on with proper governance of the country - rather than a decade of transition into a worse state.
 
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SpurMeUp said:
What would be your approach? What bargaining chips do we have?

Surely the only possibly way is with humility? They owe us nothing.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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The biggest threat would be that of 3M Europeans landing in Calais tomorrow. I'd have that on the table at the very start - the UK keeps passporting rights and the EU doesn't have a sudden extra 3M mouths to feed.

The best legal analysis of what the EU think we owe them is that we owe them nothing (or very little). Some measures have them owing us around £9Bn, so that would be my starting point. I'd probably move as far as about £20-30Bn in return for reduced non-tariff barriers. We already have a method of recording the movement of goods in and out - we should continue that and they won't have to take a cut on their pensions.

The rest would be the same as any deal. Despite your ridiculous pessimism, the EU does want and need to trade with the UK - the balance on tariffs will be somewhere in the middle of 0 and the WTO position. Once you take out financial services, our annual EU contributions would cover the cost of the government subsidising any EU exports to the point where our products don't cost any more.

Mainly though, I'd relish the ability to negotiate with a group of people who don't actually yet know or agree on what it is they want. Playing them against each other to their own detriment would be fairly simple - especially with the number of egos in the room. I'd like to start by banning Juncker just because he's a clam, but his Trump-like ability to spout nonsense without engaging his brain could be a very useful tool.
 
scaramanga said:
The biggest threat would be that of 3M Europeans landing in Calais tomorrow. I'd have that on the table at the very start - the UK keeps passporting rights and the EU doesn't have a sudden extra 3M mouths to feed.

The best legal analysis of what the EU think we owe them is that we owe them nothing (or very little). Some measures have them owing us around £9Bn, so that would be my starting point. I'd probably move as far as about £20-30Bn in return for reduced non-tariff barriers. We already have a method of recording the movement of goods in and out - we should continue that and they won't have to take a cut on their pensions.

The rest would be the same as any deal. Despite your ridiculous pessimism, the EU does want and need to trade with the UK - the balance on tariffs will be somewhere in the middle of 0 and the WTO position. Once you take out financial services, our annual EU contributions would cover the cost of the government subsidising any EU exports to the point where our products don't cost any more.

Mainly though, I'd relish the ability to negotiate with a group of people who don't actually yet know or agree on what it is they want. Playing them against each other to their own detriment would be fairly simple - especially with the number of egos in the room. I'd like to start by banning Juncker just because he's a clam, but his Trump-like ability to spout nonsense without engaging his brain could be a very useful tool.
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3m highly qualified, employed people, that a liberal democracy would never allow to be booted out. Peoples boyfreinds, mothers, key personnel. The EU woudl laugh in your face. Not only would they happily take back people who are in the main highly skilled and useful, it is a threat that no one but a dictator could ever realise. So its not a bargaining chip. Its a fantasy.

The EUs 'best' analysis says circa 40billion, and they have every right to say: you want access to trade, you pay your dues.

Sadly there is a deluded position amongst many Leave Conservatives. Maybe it comes from a private school education? A sense of entitlement; that we can ban people or dictate terms. The EU will be looking out for itself - isn't that obvious? Just as the UK is now. There won't be massive EU disunity, just a deal to be struck that favours the EU and we'll be trying to get one that favours us, but with far less weight behind us. That is where the Tory delusions of grandeur come in: a belief that we're some kind of colonial power still that can stride into a room, ban the usurpers and dictate terms.
 
scaramanga said:
The biggest threat would be that of 3M Europeans landing in Calais tomorrow. I'd have that on the table at the very start - the UK keeps passporting rights and the EU doesn't have a sudden extra 3M mouths to feed.
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I don't have any stats to hand, but most of them are working age, right?

If they reciprocate, then we'd end up with a couple of hundred thousand pensioners back here. And most of them would have money tied up in foreign property that would be very difficult for them to sell, so asset rich cash poor and big potential problems. It'd arguably be tougher for us to take them all back in all at once than it would be for the EU to take their workers back.
 
SpurMeUp said:
3m highly qualified, employed people, that a liberal democracy would never allow to be booted out. Peoples boyfreinds, mothers, key personnel. The EU woudl laugh in your face. Not only would they happily take back people who are in the main highly skilled and useful, it is a threat that no one but a dictator could ever realise. So its not a bargaining chip. Its a fantasy.
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The EU is very scared that we might not allow those workers to stay - they've already been stressing how important it is that we do so. This is a massive, massive issue to the EU - we have a very strong controlling hand.

I wouldn't suggest that we actually go ahead with it, but nobody in a negotiation is ever willing to go ahead with all of their threats - you just need the other side to see you're willing to do so.

SpurMeUp said:
The EUs 'best' analysis says circa 40billion, and they have every right to say: you want access to trade, you pay your dues.
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Legal advice in this country suggests that we don't have to pay anything at all. The EU have been clear there's a deal to be done here - we want reduced barriers, they need our money. This is the easiest of the lot.

SpurMeUp said:
Sadly there is a deluded position amongst many Leave Conservatives. Maybe it comes from a private school education? A sense of entitlement. That we can ban people or dictate terms. The EU will be looking out for itself - isn't that obvious? Just as the UK is now. There won't be massive disunity, just a deal to be struck that favours the EU and we'll be trying to get one that favours us, but with far less weight. That is where the Tory delusions of grandeur come in: a belief that we're some kind of colonial power still that can stride into a room, ban the usurpers and dictate terms. Hmmm.
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In the real world, very few negotiations end up in one side losing. If both sides are coming to the table then it means both sides want to deal.

They need our trade and our money, we need their trade. We will end up negotiating a settlement that both sides are happy with - I suspect there are weaknesses on their side that could be exploited, I don't know much about those negotiating for ours. We've done a good job of keeping our cards close to our chests - certainly better than they have.
 
the dza said:
I don't have any stats to hand, but most of them are working age, right?

If they reciprocate, then we'd end up with a couple of hundred thousand pensioners back here. And most of them would have money tied up in foreign property that would be very difficult for them to sell, so asset rich cash poor and big potential problems. It'd arguably be tougher for us to take them all back in all at once than it would be for the EU to take their workers back.
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They've already made it clear they wouldn't reciprocate. It's not a scenario that would ever happen, just a bargaining point.
 
When you go into these negotiations Scara do you ever think what you would say / do / want if you were in the other persons position? I cant be bothered to go through every point you bring up as until its played out we do not really have a definitive answer - looking at both sides it certainly appears to me that we are negotiating from a position of weakness.
 
scaramanga said:
The EU is very scared that we might not allow those workers to stay - they've already been stressing how important it is that we do so. This is a massive, massive issue to the EU - we have a very strong controlling hand.

I wouldn't suggest that we actually go ahead with it, but nobody in a negotiation is ever willing to go ahead with all of their threats - you just need the other side to see you're willing to do so.


Legal advice in this country suggests that we don't have to pay anything at all. The EU have been clear there's a deal to be done here - we want reduced barriers, they need our money. This is the easiest of the lot.


In the real world, very few negotiations end up in one side losing. If both sides are coming to the table then it means both sides want to deal.

They need our trade and our money, we need their trade. We will end up negotiating a settlement that both sides are happy with - I suspect there are weaknesses on their side that could be exploited, I don't know much about those negotiating for ours. We've done a good job of keeping our cards close to our chests - certainly better than they have.
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Do you think the people on the other side are stupid? If we can discern that its not ever going to happen that we kick out these people, why do think the EU are incapable of coming to the same conclusion?

The legality of the financial commitments made over the past years makes no odds. You are missing the point. It's a simple: pay up what you committed to in the past, or else we won't give you access to our 500m consumers. Highly simple. Any come backs? Not really. Shave a bit off here and there.

We've already lost with a hard exit, that much is clear. We won't have much say in regulation (that we'll end up following), we will lose some free access to 500m consumers and we'll likely lose exports to the EU and pay more for imports. We win by working with countries who are less advanced and much much further away. It doesn't makes sense.

But as for a bargaining position, the best is: we would like to work closely with you, we love the EUs culture and civilisation, we are into you, but have to deliver this mandate, help us to do it as cousins rather than brothers.

Ironically the Tory hardline approach will do more to help the EU than a conciliatory approach, as a) brexit cancellation is possible and b) we'll end up being made an example of why not to leave.

I have seen next to nothing on a vision for the UK post exit. Nothing. It's shameful. Here is this supposed opportunity, yet we've presented no representations on what a bold fresh future would look like. If we had, that would be a small bargaining chip. To show the UK has a vision and purpose. I don't see that sadly.
 
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