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Would you fly on a Boeing 737 Max?

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by SpurMeUp, 12 Mar 2019 at 12:18 AM.

  1. Jon

    Jon Ruel Fox

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    Many are indeed “certified” though...
     
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  2. SpurMeUp

    SpurMeUp Johnny Morrison

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    Do you hold shares in Boeing!?

    The investigation has not been published. How are you certain it was the sensor at fault? It may have been related to software and the MACS system noted in the original post. Too early to say.

    From the New York Times:

    “In the brutally competitive jetliner business, the announcement in late 2010 that Airbus would introduce a more fuel-efficient version of its best-selling A320 amounted to a frontal assault on its archrival Boeing’s workhorse 737.

    “Boeing scrambled to counterpunch. Within months, it came up with a plan for an upgrade of its own, the 737 Max, featuring engines that would yield similar fuel savings. And in the years that followed, Boeing pushed not just to design and build the new plane, but to persuade its airline customers and, crucially, the Federal Aviation Administration, that the new model would fly safely and handle enough like the existing model that 737 pilots would not have to undergo costly retraining.”


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....rld/asia/lion-air-plane-crash-pilots.amp.html

    According to this article it looks like it can happen (see end of your post). For now, I’ll take the NYT version of the possibilities over yours.



    Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
     
    Last edited: 14 Mar 2019 at 7:50 PM
  3. scaramanga

    scaramanga David Ginola Staff Member

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    Retraining, not no training. There's a massive difference. Training on a new model of aircraft can take months, training on a modification to an existing model takes hours to days.

    This is extremely common in the aviation industry. There are 7 or 8 versions of the 737 alone, 5 versions of the A320 but it's been around for a shorter time.

    In fact, this very same design/launch tactic was used by Airbus with the Neo a few years ago. They made almost exactly the same modifications as Boeing did, and required the same amount of familiarisation (not retraining) as the 737.

    The sensor is what the MACS system runs from. We know the MACS system itself isn't failing because it's the same system that's been used in thousands of simulator hours.

    And yes, as of yesterday I own a fair few Boeing shares - it seems a good time to be picking them up cheaply.
     
  4. SpurMeUp

    SpurMeUp Johnny Morrison

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    Did you read that article? Published before the crash in Ethiopia, it clearly flagged up Boeing’s drive to compete and chase profit, over safety. Article continues:

    “But the tragedy has become a focus of intense interest and debate in aviation circles because of another factor: the determination by Boeing and the F.A.A. that pilots did not need to be informed about a change introduced to the 737’s flight control system for the Max, some software coding intended to automatically offset the risk that the size and location of the new engines could lead the aircraft to stall under certain conditions.”

    Definitely opportunity to buy Boeing shares - they rebounded after the battery issues a few years back - but it maybe early to buy. As the investigation results are delivered and fall out with the FAA, their shares could dip further.


    Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
     
  5. scaramanga

    scaramanga David Ginola Staff Member

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    No I didn't, because I'd far rather listen to people from within the industry than a non-expert source.

    I can tell you categorically, that new passenger aircraft do not go out to airlines without pilot training and familiarisation - not even small upgrades on old models. Whether the individual airlines choose to apply that or not is another matter, but they are legally required to do so.

    If you will insist on only listening to the NYT then please read the following:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/reader-center/737-max-8.html

    This is what happens at a reputable AOC. Every. Single. Time.

    See also (same source):
    Not only had pilots been trained for the new model (AOC allowing), but Boeing then sent out further notification to all customers. I asked a friend yesterday if Boeing would have been expected to detail the system and in his words "no, it was an emergency recovery system so unless it's something entirely new to aviation (and this isn't)."

    For more of the same see (NASA's ASRS db search is down right now, but this has the report verbatim):
    https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2...ecord-about-problems-with-the-737-max/584791/

    Take a look at report 1597286.

    This report was made in November 2018.
     
    Last edited: 14 Mar 2019 at 8:53 PM
  6. Jon

    Jon Ruel Fox

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    How come you are so learned and wise in such matters @scaramanga ? Is Aviation a job or a hobby for you?
     
  7. scaramanga

    scaramanga David Ginola Staff Member

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    3 years of undergrad in Aerospace Engineering. Half of those I studied with are now pilots and most of the rest involved in aviation somehow.
     
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  8. SpurMeUp

    SpurMeUp Johnny Morrison

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    All of that doesn't change the fact (a lot of it backs it up) that Boeing avoided costly pilot retraining by getting the regulators to classify a new aircraft as an iteration. This helped sales but undermined safty. However, we don't know what caused the crashes, just that two of the same type of plane showed similar up and down altitude patterns on take off which could be the MACS system lowering the nose while the pilots raised the nose every 15 seconds. If the crashes were caused by MACS, and these two pilots didn't know how to quickly override it, it shows that 1. the aircraft's MACS system is not fit for purpose and 2. pilot retraining was necessary and probably would have saved lives.
     
  9. scaramanga

    scaramanga David Ginola Staff Member

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    As has happened with almost all single aisle passenger craft for decades now. This isn't new, this isn't Boeing, this is how aircraft are built - it's the industry standard. Without these incremental changes, aircraft would be far less safe than they currently are.

    We don't, but we can be fairly sure.

    MACS adjusts the trim. If a pilot attempts to combat incorrectly applied trim with yoke he or she will just compound the situation. Automated trim being applied incorrectly is very, very common. All pilots with 100s of hours experience in cattle crates will have had it happen to them - it's one of the quirks of autopilot. The difference here is that the trim is automated when under manual control - that's still no excuse for not noticing the trim moving. It's on a clickwheel next to both the pilot and the copilot, it makes a fudging click when it moves and they should be holding the controls when auto is off. Inattention, lack of training, lack of sleep, laziness, lack of experience - take your pick, but my hours are in the dozens rather than the hundreds and I know the difference between trim and yoke. I'd certainly notice a trim wheel moving of its own accord.
     
    Last edited: 15 Mar 2019 at 11:17 PM

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