The Power of Expectation

[Millsy_Yiddo]

*Long post***

Was listening to the 606 phone in in the car last night. In between shouting expletives at Ian 'I'm a macaron but its OK because I love everything English and I'm a bit of a cheeky chappy so I still get jobs' Wright, I started to think about Spurs.

2003/2004 and the sacking of Glenn Hoddle pretty much kick off our rise from 'mid table regulars' to CL contenders. In a ten year period we've had 5 managers (not counting Pleat, Santini or Sherwood as they weren't really here very long);

Jol
Ramos
Redknapp
AVB
Poch

Of those five, only two have managed more than 2 seasons. Incidentally, these two are probably regarded by most as the most successful of the 5. Jol and Redknapp. So why did Jol and Redknapp last. Good results is an obvious factor, but then again AVB got good results on the whole and it didn't save him. The reason both these managers were able to be successful is down to one thing. Expectation.

Jol took over following a season where we finished 14th in the league. When Redknapp took over, we had 2 points from 8 games as he so vigorously reminded us at every available opportunity.

Because of this, both Jol and Redknapp were given at least one full seasons grace by both the media and by us as fans. This gave them the time they needed to 1. Steady the ship, 2. Identify what was needed to move us forward and 3. Put together some kind of plan to do this. This passes to the players, they are free to go about their business, play the game like they can and shine.

Fast forward to today. There are already rumblings of dissatisfaction amongst some of us with a manager who is also trying teach the players a new system (a system most people seem to agree will improve us), improve our style of play (A style most people seem to agree will improve us) and hopefully have us enjoying our trips to WHL again (Something most people seem to agree will improve us).

We are on the same points as Liverpool, who are in a similar situation to us having lost Suarez. Above Manchester United and Everton who are widely regarded as our closest rivals. Three points behind Arsenal. At the end of the season if I said we will finish above Liverpool, United, Everton and 3 points behind Arsenal without telling you where we finish in the league would you be happy? I would bet most would because on the grand scheme of things they would figure that it means we'd be fairly well up, so why are there rumblings of discontent already?

If I could wave some kind of magic wand that made all Spurs fans oblivious to league position/points total/team performance for one season only, I would do it today, because the evidence suggests that when a manager is given time and freedom without the shackles of over-expectation, they do very well at this club.

 

[camspur]

Well said. The blight of expactation does seem to pervade our forum whereby a lot of posters seem to think it's a right to be top 4 not a privilege and if our managers don't achieve that then they should go.

If you look at the current table we are in a relatively good position comparatively to our "rivals" and if take Soton, West Ham and Swansea out of the equation, as in my opinion they will suffer the "second half of the season slump", we are sitting in joint 4th.

 

[Robspur12]

Good thread Millsy was thinking about something similar myself. Look it is absolutely right for fans to express displeasure and to voice concerns about a manager and the way the team is performing. But some of the language used by fans makes me want to weep, "he is showing signs of cracking up,"" I am losing my respect for him with every game" this sort of thing is way over the top for someone who is 10 premier league games into his Spurs career. He is trying to manage the team on 3 fronts which is another demand, rightly, from spur supporters. We have real problems in the team, we are missing a quality central midfielder, our captain is a rubbish defender and 2 of our 3 strikers seem unable to score. Poch will not solve these things overnight.


Some posters ask if Poch's problems vindicate AVB. My answer to that is no, AVB was largely responsible for the personnel in this team the make up and balance IMO is mostly down to him. This team was created for a system he intended to implement but for was unable to make that system effective. In fact, IMO, the struggles are more a vindication of Tim who questioned the balance and mentality of the team just as Poch has this season. In retrospect Tim managed to paper over the cracks pretty well.

Any way I feel we need to support Poch and levy needs to back him in the transfer market.

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

Good thread Millsy was thinking about something similar myself. Look it is absolutely right for fans to express displeasure and to voice concerns about a manager and the way the team is performing. But some of the language used by fans makes me want to weep, "he is showing signs of cracking up,"" I am losing my respect for him with every game" this sort of thing is way over the top for someone who is 10 premier league games into his Spurs career. He is trying to manage the team on 3 fronts which is another demand, rightly, from spur supporters. We have real problems in the team, we are missing a quality central midfielder, our captain is a rubbish defender and 2 of our 3 strikers seem unable to score. Poch will not solve these things overnight.


Some posters ask if Poch's problems vindicate AVB. My answer to that is no, AVB was largely responsible for the personnel in this team the make up and balance IMO is mostly down to him. This team was created for a system he intended to implement but for was unable to make that system effective. In fact, IMO, the struggles are more a vindication of Tim who questioned the balance and mentality of the team just as Poch has this season. In retrospect Tim managed to paper over the cracks pretty well.

Any way I feel we need to support Poch and levy needs to back him in the transfer market.

I didn't really rate AVB that highly as a manager, although his time here is a pretty good example of how unrealistic expectations from both fans and the media can really make things difficult.

He took the reigns from Redknapp, off the back of our most successful period in terms of league position. In his first season he managed our highest ever points total (and the highest points total ever not to qualify for the CL) and the emergence of Bale as a truely world class player. He was applauded for his handling of Bale and the role he played in making him the player he was. He then lost this player, who was widely regarded as being one of the world's top 3 and replaced him with 7 players that had never set foot in the league.

Why did many of us, as fans and many journalists in the media expect us to finish in a better position or even the same position as the season previous, when it was common knowledge to everyone that Gareth Bale was a massive, massive part of the reason for our previous success. As soon as the results started to go south AVB went from a good manager 'who managed and played a great part in Bale's emergence' to a bad manager 'Who only finished where he did last year because of Gareth Bale'. This all stems from the fact that before the season even started, most of our fans and the media expected to be seriously challenging for 4th place if not higher. In reality, it should have been blatantly obvious that we should have been happy with anything from 6th/7th and above.

 

[Ade's folks are ok really]

*Long post***

We are on the same points as Liverpool, who are in a similar situation to us having lost Suarez. Above Manchester United and Everton who are widely regarded as our closest rivals. Three points behind Arsenal. At the end of the season if I said we will finish above Liverpool, United, Everton and 3 points behind Arsenal without telling you where we finish in the league would you be happy? I would bet most would because on the grand scheme of things they would figure that it means we'd be fairly well up, so why are there rumblings of discontent already?

My issue here is that we've already blown 6 points against teams we really should've annihilated, even if we aren't quite top 4 fodder. WBA and Newc at home should've been points in the bag, and whilst I appreciate everyone will slip up throughout the season, we know we can't do a job on the top 4 or 5 teams, so getting maximum points at home against those below us really is a must!

I'd like a league table of the top 7 candidates (let's say Chels, City, Ars, Liv, Spurs, Utd and Everton) with points based only on results against the teams we've ALL played so far.

 

[Raziel]

My issue here is that we've already blown 6 points against teams we really should've annihilated, even if we aren't quite top 4 fodder. WBA and Newc at home should've been points in the bag, and whilst I appreciate everyone will slip up throughout the season, we know we can't do a job on the top 4 or 5 teams, so getting maximum points at home against those below us really is a must!

I'd like a league table of the top 7 candidates (let's say Chels, City, Ars, Liv, Spurs, Utd and Everton) with points based only on results against the teams we've ALL played so far.

This, no problem with us "adjusting" and being in 8th-10th, but without us pulling a rabbit out of the hat yesterday (absolutely assisted by opposition player getting himself sent off), we would have been what, 15th? unacceptable under any circumstances ..

 

[braineclipse]

My issue here is that we've already blown 6 points against teams we really should've annihilated, even if we aren't quite top 4 fodder. WBA and Newc at home should've been points in the bag, and whilst I appreciate everyone will slip up throughout the season, we know we can't do a job on the top 4 or 5 teams, so getting maximum points at home against those below us really is a must!

I'd like a league table of the top 7 candidates (let's say Chels, City, Ars, Liv, Spurs, Utd and Everton) with points based only on results against the teams we've ALL played so far.

I really don't think you appreciate that everyone slip up throughout the season when your expectations are that we annihilate teams like WBA and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (currently 11th and 12th in the league respectively).

I do think unrealistic expectations are a cause of unrest and unhappiness amongst the fans. If this hurts the club or not I'm not sure, but I don't think it helps the club.

Another point related to this is the way quite a lot of fans are consistently comparing us to whichever team is currently over performing. This season it's Southampton and Swansea. Last season Liverpool. Now the fans, particularly the more negative fans, won't come near a Liverpool or Everton comparison even though they were frequently brought up in the managerial debates this summer because we "lost out on" Rogers and Martinez. Essentially if you're consistently comparing us to whoever is over performing then there's no way to ever meet expectations as they will be unrealistic by definition.

 

[jts1882]

As soon as the results started to go south AVB went from a good manager 'who managed and played a great part in Bale's emergence' to a bad manager 'Who only finished where he did last year because of Gareth Bale'.

But arguably hindsight led to a reasonable reevaluation. In both seasons we struggled to score. In one Bale papered over this obvious crack in the other AVB made it worse by exiling our top striker. AVB deserves some credit for changing how Bale was used and increasing his goal tally, but only some as Bale was clearly on an upward trajectory.

No question about the main point on expectations. When expectations are high, the manager gets less leeway, the crowd get antsy earlier and it spreads to the players, making them impatient and nervous. In contrast, when expectations are low the crowd get behind the team when they show some life.

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

This, no problem with us "adjusting" and being in 8th-10th, but without us pulling a rabbit out of the hat yesterday (absolutely assisted by opposition player getting himself sent off), we would have been what, 15th? unacceptable under any circumstances ..

I disagree, I think it would have been perfectly acceptable given the current circumstances that I listed in the original post. If we were to finish the season in 15th then yes, I'd probably agree with you, not acceptable. But 10 games into a season in a league where Southampton, West Ham and Swansea are currently high flyers? I think its acceptable at this point in time.

 

[Raziel]

As soon as the results started to go south AVB went from a good manager 'who managed and played a great part in Bale's emergence' to a bad manager 'Who only finished where he did last year because of Gareth Bale'.

But arguably hindsight led to a reasonable reevaluation. In both seasons we struggled to score. In one Bale papered over this obvious crack in the other AVB made it worse by exiling our top striker. AVB deserves some credit for changing how Bale was used and increasing his goal tally, but only some as Bale was clearly on an upward trajectory.

No question about the main point on expectations. When expectations are high, the manager gets less leeway, the crowd get antsy earlier and it spreads to the players, making them impatient and nervous. In contrast, when expectations are low the crowd get behind the team when they show some life.

I kind of disagree

- lets be clear, expectations at Tottenham are stupid high (especially when considering the money disadvantage we are at against at least 5 other clubs)
- However, Spurs managers will get slack if they stay in top 8 and avoid being smashed by sides, which in a squad like ours should not be so ****ing difficult.

I think instead of people looking at last years Pool or this years Sothampton should take a look at Hull over both seasons

- Compare Hull's squad to ours, is there a single player you would take? how many of ours would walk onto their first team?
- How many times have they been ass****ed 4-0 or higher by top 4 teams vs. us?

Sadly, truth is AVB/TS were not good enough, out of their league, and so far Poch is struggling ..

 

[sc25]

There are already rumblings of dissatisfaction amongst some.

Whether right or wrong, this is nothing new. (There were rumblings about Sherwood even before his first game). There's nothing sinister about this to me. Its a constant evaluation each week. If we play well and get a good result there is praise. If we were top of the league right now there would be lots of it.

Well, it has to work the other way too. When Poch himself comes out after a game and says he is disappointed at what we did wrong and where we need to improve, what are we supposed to say? Disagree with him, tell him he's wrong, and say no, everything looks good Poch?

Yes, its a new system and we need patience (altho, nobody has really fully explained Soton this season). It can take time, but that rate of development can still be assessed. In the mean time, you still have to perform and get results and get the best out of existing players. That's the nature of this business, for all managers. Right now some things are looking good, and some aren't. Not a surprise, but still.

I don't feel one has to be one side of the fence or the other, all or nothing, so to speak. In some cases you can already predict what side of the fence somebody will be on before they even post. Rather, it ought to be an ongoing fluid process, give and take. Credit where its due, and criticism when its warranted, based on results, performances and progression.

 

[Yiddo]

The reason is most of our fans act like spoiled kids.

 

[Ade's folks are ok really]

I really don't think you appreciate that everyone slip up throughout the season when your expectations are that we annihilate teams like WBA and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (currently 11th and 12th in the league respectively).

I do think unrealistic expectations are a cause of unrest and unhappiness amongst the fans. If this hurts the club or not I'm not sure, but I don't think it helps the club.

Another point related to this is the way quite a lot of fans are consistently comparing us to whichever team is currently over performing. This season it's Southampton and Swansea. Last season Liverpool. Now the fans, particularly the more negative fans, won't come near a Liverpool or Everton comparison even though they were frequently brought up in the managerial debates this summer because we "lost out on" Rogers and Martinez. Essentially if you're consistently comparing us to whoever is over performing then there's no way to ever meet expectations as they will be unrealistic by definition.

Ok, granted annihilate was a strong word (typically, i went to delete it in favour of merely 'beat' but just couldn't be arsed! You caught me out!). But my point is that i do understand every team slips up, it just seems that of the top 7 teams our slip ups are more frequent that others, and we struggle to then make those points up against the big boys. (Something Harry managed during a season and low and behold we made 4th.)

 

[Lost Mango]

This, no problem with us "adjusting" and being in 8th-10th, but without us pulling a rabbit out of the hat yesterday (absolutely assisted by opposition player getting himself sent off), we would have been what, 15th? unacceptable under any circumstances ..

But by the same token how many points/games have we lost because of the sending off (often wrongly) of one of our players? I would argue that in the last season and a half we have lost more than we have benefited from red cards (and penalty decisions). Where would we be without the detrimental contributions of refs in the same way that we gained yesterday?

 

[braineclipse]

Whether right or wrong, this is nothing new, There were rumblings about Sherwood before his first game.

There's nothing sinister about this to me. Its a constant evaluation each week. If we play well and get a good result there is praise. If we were top of the league right now there would be lots of it.

Well, it has to work the other way too. When Poch himself comes out after a game and says he is disappointed at what we did wrong and where we need to improve, what are we supposed to say? Disagree with him, tell him he's wrong, and say no, everything looks good Poch?

Yes, its a new system and we need patience (altho, nobody has really fully explained Soton this season). It can take time, but that rate of development can still be assessed. Some things are looking good, some aren't. I don't feel one has to be one side of the fence or the other, all or nothing, so to speak. In some cases you can already predict what side of the fence somebody will be on before they even post. Rather, it ought to be an ongoing fluid process, give and take. Credit where its due, and criticism when its warranted, based on results, performances and progression.

Some of the stuff aimed at Poch has been way beyond "a constant evaluation each week". I agree with you though.

Ok, granted annihilate was a strong word (typically, i went to delete it in favour of merely 'beat' but just couldn't be arsed! You caught me out!). But my point is that i do understand every team slips up, it just seems that of the top 7 teams our slip ups are more frequent that others, and we struggle to then make those points up against the big boys. (Something Harry managed during a season and low and behold we made 4th.)

Top 7: City, Chelsea, Arsenal, United, Liverpool, Everton and ourselves? I don't think there's any way that can be looked at as a "homogenous top 7" I think most would agree that it's two primary title challengers (City and Chelsea) one title outsider and almost nailed on top 4 candidate (Arsenal) and 4 challengers for 4th (United, Liverpool, Everton and ourselves). Thus I also think a comparison with others that includes Chelsea and City (and arguably Arsenal) is a bit far fetched to start out with. A more realistic comparison is with the other challengers for 4th and I really don't think we've been slipping up all that more frequently than the others, it's just that it hurts a lot more for a lot longer when we do.

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

I kind of disagree

- lets be clear, expectations at Tottenham are stupid high (especially when considering the money disadvantage we are at against at least 5 other clubs)
- However, Spurs managers will get slack if they stay in top 8 and avoid being smashed by sides, which in a squad like ours should not be so ****ing difficult.

I think instead of people looking at last years Pool or this years Sothampton should take a look at Hull over both seasons

- Compare Hull's squad to ours, is there a single player you would take? how many of ours would walk onto their first team?
- How many times have they been ass****ed 4-0 or higher by top 4 teams vs. us?

Sadly, truth is AVB/TS were not good enough, out of their league, and so far Poch is struggling ..

Is he really really struggling? Or do we just perceive it that way because of our relative success last season? Personally I think he is struggling a little and we should be beating teams like WBA etc at home. However this should be expected and is perfectly acceptable at this point in time. Most of us keep saying, the system he's trying to put in place with a squad of players that he's never worked with before, will be better for us in the long run. It seems that many on here deem quite a few of those players surplus to requirements, yet expect Poch to be able to integrate them into this system easily and quickly. Added to that, many have noted that one of Poch's strong points is be coaching and improving players, but want said under-performers out of the team as soon as they have a below par performance.

Regarding your Hull point. A team that are overjoyed with a 0-0 draw against any of the top 4 will always concede less goals against them as they will set up to defend first, attack second.

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

Some of the stuff aimed at Poch has been way beyond "a constant evaluation each week". I agree with you though.

Yep. I agree with him also, but some stuff really does go far and beyond.

 

[braineclipse]

Whether right or wrong, this is nothing new. (There were rumblings about Sherwood even before his first game). There's nothing sinister about this to me. Its a constant evaluation each week. If we play well and get a good result there is praise. If we were top of the league right now there would be lots of it.

Well, it has to work the other way too. When Poch himself comes out after a game and says he is disappointed at what we did wrong and where we need to improve, what are we supposed to say? Disagree with him, tell him he's wrong, and say no, everything looks good Poch?

Yes, its a new system and we need patience (altho, nobody has really fully explained Soton this season). It can take time, but that rate of development can still be assessed. In the mean time, you still have to perform and get results and get the best out of existing players. That's the nature of this business, for all managers. Right now some things are looking good, and some aren't. Not a surprise, but still.

I don't feel one has to be one side of the fence or the other, all or nothing, so to speak. In some cases you can already predict what side of the fence somebody will be on before they even post. Rather, it ought to be an ongoing fluid process, give and take. Credit where its due, and criticism when its warranted, based on results, performances and progression.

Explain a single team's performances over 10 games? How about statistical outlier as an explanation?

Let's see how Southampton do for the full season, or perhaps even going into next season. We've seen this kind of stuff before with a team doing great up until winter/Christmas and collapsing. We've seen Saudi Sportswashing Machine get pretty close to challenging for 4th one season and fighting off relegation the next. It's not something magical that needs explanation, it's 10 games. Just like I don't think it's fair to judge Poch over 10 games with below expected results I don't think it's fair to judge Koeman, Pelle or Southampton over 10 games of way above expected results.

It's 10 games. It would be interesting to see what the best and worst 10 game stretches in terms of points totals clubs have had over the last 5-6 seasons, but I'm not sure if that kind of stat is available anywhere. Because it's the start of the season and a table is made out of those 10 games people seem to give that kind of run a lot of credibility, but it's still just 10 games. 10 games where Southampton haven't faced Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea or Arsenal (most people's tip for the top 3, and the other teams currently in the top 4).

 

[Raziel]

Is he really really struggling? Or do we just perceive it that way because of our relative success last season? Personally I think he is struggling a little and we should be beating teams like WBA etc at home. However this should be expected and is perfectly acceptable at this point in time. Most of us keep saying, the system he's trying to put in place with a squad of players that he's never worked with before, will be better for us in the long run. It seems that many on here deem quite a few of those players surplus to requirements, yet expect Poch to be able to integrate them into this system easily and quickly. Added to that, many have noted that one of Poch's strong points is be coaching and improving players, but want said under-performers out of the team as soon as they have a below par performance.

Regarding your Hull point. A team that are overjoyed with a 0-0 draw against any of the top 4 will always concede less goals against them as they will set up to defend first, attack second.

I agree, my point however is we have conceded some **** like 27 ****ing goals against top 4 in the last season, you would think one of three ****ing managers would realize we are too open, using the wrong tactics and at least emulate what a much poorer team in terms of quality is capable of doing (Poch to me actually did this against the Scum and it worked, then reverted to the lets try to outplay a side that cost a billion dollars and we conceded heavily again).

I do think Poch is struggling, both tactically and in his effort to make judgment calls/man management, beyond just style adoption
- The Ade/Capue/Kaboul decisions highlight that, I think we are now afraid of Ade, and he should have been dropped (or put to play in Europe 5 games ago), Kaboul was a risk for captain that has seemed to backfire (do we now drop our captain?) and Capoue was a big gamble to choose over Sandro (and again, looks like the wrong call)
- Kane feels like fan pressure instead of a manager seeing/playing the in form striker.

 

[braineclipse]

I agree, my point however is we have conceded some **** like 27 ****ing goals against top 4 in the last season, you would think one of three ****ing managers would realize we are too open, using the wrong tactics and at least emulate what a much poorer team in terms of quality is capable of doing (Poch to me actually did this against the Scum and it worked, then reverted to the lets try to outplay a side that cost a billion dollars and we conceded heavily again).

I do think Poch is struggling, both tactically and in his effort to make judgment calls/man management, beyond just style adoption
- The Ade/Capue/Kaboul decisions highlight that, I think we are now afraid of Ade, and he should have been dropped (or put to play in Europe 5 games ago), Kaboul was a risk for captain that has seemed to backfire (do we now drop our captain?) and Capoue was a big gamble to choose over Sandro (and again, looks like the wrong call)
- Kane feels like fan pressure instead of a manager seeing/playing the in form striker.

We got outscored heavily against City after a sending off and several penalties. You have no issues bring up the red card yesterday as "an assist" for our win, but you give Poch no such leeway when it's the other way around...

The fact is that teams like City are capable of scoring a lot against even better teams than us when they're on their game and the opposition is having a slightly off game. Another fact is that Hull conceded 3 at home to Arsenal, 4 at home to Saudi Sportswashing Machine and 4 away to Southampton last season.