Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[Parklaner81]

I would guess that most Labour leave voters would be dis-satisfied with Labour's position on Brexit, as it lands somewhere between soft-Brexit and a 2nd referendum. And most leave voters seem more on the side of a harder-Brexit and most certainly against a 2nd referendum.

Is Brexit the number 1 issue for Labour-leave voters or is it some combination of all the other stuff? I don't know. IMO, if you are a leave voter AND Brexit is most important to you, above all else, then you probably didn't vote for Labour in 2017. (When I say "you" I am speaking generally, I don't mean you personally). My best guess is that if you are a Labour leave voter and the other stuff together is more important to you than Brexit, then you would probably still vote Labour if there was a general election tomorrow, despite preferring Labour did Brexit differently.

That's a reasonable enough response.

The bit where I disagree with you is the bolded bit. Labour overdid most prior expectations in the 2017 general election. My opinion at the time (and still remains, though I'm sure you will disagree) was that they hit something of a ceiling on that day - I think they scooped up pretty much every vote they were ever likely to, in their current form. That doesn't suggest a 'missing' chunk of votes.

(Again) my personal opinion was, and is, that many saw the 2017 GE as a 'free hit' of sorts - I don't think that many people would have thought through the brexit-related implications of their vote, a similar point to that which I think Nayim & GB made earlier. What I'm suggesting therefore is that I think there were in fact a significant number of Labour voters in 2017 for whom brexit was/is their top political priority. What they do next time will be key. If they're anything like me, they might never vote for Labour again as long as they live. If however they are tory-haters first and foremost, then everything I've just said will be academic...

 

[the dza]

That's a reasonable enough response.

The bit where I disagree with you is the bolded bit. Labour overdid most prior expectations in the 2017 general election. My opinion at the time (and still remains, though I'm sure you will disagree) was that they hit something of a ceiling on that day - I think they scooped up pretty much every vote they were ever likely to, in their current form. That doesn't suggest a 'missing' chunk of votes.

(Again) my personal opinion was, and is, that many saw the 2017 GE as a 'free hit' of sorts - I don't think that many people would have thought through the brexit-related implications of their vote, a similar point to which I think Nayim & GB made earlier. What I'm suggesting therefore is that I think there were in fact a significant number of Labour voters in 2017 for whom brexit was/is their top political priority. What they do next time will be key. If they're anything like me, they might never vote for Labour again as long as they live. If however they are tory-haters first and foremost, then everything I've just said will be academic...

I don't think Labour will get a lot higher in terms of their percentage of the vote. They got 41% of the vote, so it's unlikely to go much higher. What I think will happen is the Tories will drop and Labour will be able to take more of the marginals (probably worth a separate post re. marginal seats). The two main parties got a very high vote share last time out. I think, in light of how Brexit is going, that the Tories will lose more votes to UKIP/New Brexit Party than Labour will lose. I think there are less of those voters (more militant leavers) for Labour to lose and it will cost the Tories more, which is why I think Labour will end up as the largest party next time out and form the next government (even if they don't manage to get an outright majority). The last few polls seem to reflect this, but there's still a lot that can change between now and whenever the next election is called.

Take all polls with a pinch of salt, especially given that a lot can change, but these are the last 3 tweeted on Britain Elects (all tweeted in the last 24 hours):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1116333452574511104

https://twitter.com/x/status/1116234117748854784

https://twitter.com/x/status/1116208675306209280

 

[glasgowspur]

Whats your view on the SNP?

Grievance politics of the highest order, a bunch of idiots with only one thing in mind and they care not how they get it or its consequences.
The ERG x 100. Different side of the spectrum (for now at least) but the same lunacy.
The really bizarre thing is they are untouchable, it's farce, disgrace and scandal following on one on top of the other and yet nothing sticks.
They have the press hog tied with bans, FOI requests are rejected at will and the media just go along with.
I loathe them.

 

[Grays_1890]

The really bizarre thing is they are untouchable

Thats the bizarre thing, because they are voted in and in force so did they really miss judge the mood in Scotland that much when calling the referendum based on the fact they have so much support?

 

[r-u-s-x]

To re-align the question just slightly, what kind of proportion of Labour-voting leave supporters do you think will be satisifed with Labour's overall position on Brexit?

I personally think the no-deal stance is the one that has the most potential to really alienate their supporters (and I base that opinion partly on the fact that I am a former Labour voter myself, and how I would feel if I were still so today), but I think it goes wider than that. I personally can't imagine that very many Labour-voting brexiteers at all are going to be overly enamoured with their party, as at today. Again, I sure wouldn't be.

What might well come to Labour's rescue in this regard though is the anti-tory sentiment @nayimfromthehalfwayline has already referenced.

with FPTP I think most Labour voters will continue to vote Labour even if its with reluctance.

 

[DTA]

Grievance politics of the highest order, a bunch of idiots with only one thing in mind and they care not how they get it or its consequences.
The ERG x 100. Different side of the spectrum (for now at least) but the same lunacy.
The really bizarre thing is they are untouchable, it's farce, disgrace and scandal following on one on top of the other and yet nothing sticks.
They have the press hog tied with bans, FOI requests are rejected at will and the media just go along with.
I loathe them.

So you think they are alright then?

 

[Parklaner81]

I don't think Labour will get a lot higher in terms of their percentage of the vote. They got 41% of the vote, so it's unlikely to go much higher. What I think will happen is the Tories will drop and Labour will be able to take more of the marginals (probably worth a separate post re. marginal seats). The two main parties got a very high vote share last time out. I think, in light of how Brexit is going, that the Tories will lose more votes to UKIP/New Brexit Party than Labour will lose. I think there are less of those voters (more militant leavers) for Labour to lose and it will cost the Tories more, which is why I think Labour will end up as the largest party next time out and form the next government (even if they don't manage to get an outright majority). The last few polls seem to reflect this, but there's still a lot that can change between now and whenever the next election is called.

Again you make a reasonable case, but I don't see it quite the same way myself.

I can't argue with your point that the tories probably have a bigger 'militant leave' base than Labour. On the surface, that does give them more to lose. But at the same time, which party has diluted (or you might even use the word 'betrayed') the brexit vision of those voters to the greater extent? It's Labour. Labour is proposing something that very few would recognise as 'brexit', something which is, I'd have thought, likely to alienate almost all of their leave contingent. With the tories, I'd suggest there are more shades of grey involved - many will hate May's deal and the way she's handled things, but will still retain a degree of sympathy/respect/whatever that she has at least tried to 'leave'.

Moving away from brexit, I'd offer one other point on electoral prospects. Going back to the 'free hit' suggestion that I made earlier regarding the 2017 GE, I honestly think that a fair number of people voted for "Prime Minister Corbyn" in that election safe in the knowledge that it was never going to happen - as I said, a free hit. The circumstances next time will be very, very different, and if I was a betting man I'd have to say that I still simply cannot envisage this country electing JC as PM. A semi-competent tory campaign - something else that was missing in 2017 - would surely see to that (I'm not expecting you to agree..!).

 

[Parklaner81]

Grievance politics of the highest order

More so than John McDonnell...?!

 

[the dza]

Again you make a reasonable case, but I don't see it quite the same way myself.

I can't argue with your point that the tories probably have a bigger 'militant leave' base than Labour. On the surface, that does give them more to lose. But at the same time, which party has diluted (or you might even use the word 'betrayed') the brexit vision of those voters to the greater extent? It's Labour. Labour is proposing something that very few would recognise as 'brexit', something which is, I'd have thought, likely to alienate almost all of their leave contingent. With the tories, I'd suggest there are more shades of grey involved - many will hate May's deal and the way she's handled things, but will still retain a degree of sympathy/respect/whatever that she has at least tried to 'leave'.

Moving away from brexit, I'd offer one other point on electoral prospects. Going back to the 'free hit' suggestion that I made earlier regarding the 2017 GE, I honestly think that a fair number of people voted for "Prime Minister Corbyn" in that election safe in the knowledge that it was never going to happen - as I said, a free hit. The circumstances next time will be very, very different, and if I was a betting man I'd have to say that I still simply cannot envisage this country electing JC as PM. A semi-competent tory campaign - something else that was missing in 2017 - would surely see to that (I'm not expecting you to agree..!).

I liked your post, but naturally I don't agree with your conclusion

In the end, there's still a lot that can change, which is why I don't get too excited if Labour goes a way behind or a way infront in the polls, politics is very volatile right now. It's a boring thing to say, but we will really have to wait and see.

 

[glasgowspur]

Thats the bizarre thing, because they are voted in and in force so did they really miss judge the mood in Scotland that much when calling the referendum based on the fact they have so much support?

There's a lot of reasons for the indy ref, they have a core support that are so deluded they think they will win and held the party to ransom, it really was a tories Brexit scenario.

They conned a lot of people by saying a vote for us in an election is a vote for independence, then when they won the election it was a 'mandate'.

Labour's implosion up here along with the total hatred of the tories means they are the only 'credible' party left. People will twig eventually, but as I've always said we're a politically dumb country.

 

[the dza]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-11/why-labour-looks-set-to-become-the-referendum-party/

On a noisy night, what stood out for me was Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell volunteered to me, on my show - without me needing to ask - a commitment by the PM to hold a so-called "confirmatory" referendum on any Brexit deal could be a way of "entrenching" whatever Brexit entente Labour and the Government can reach.

It felt like a straw in the gale blowing from Brussels. So I talked to a number of his colleagues - including those sceptical about a people's vote - and it is clear to me Labour is close to upgrading the referendum idea from option to formal first-choice policy.

Which doesn't mean Labour's shadow cabinet is yet foursquare behind it: there are probably ten of Jeremy Corbyn's most senior colleagues who, like him, have doubts about whether Labour should become the referendum party.

But I am told enough of the referendum doubters are close to folding, partly because the advantages of Labour rebranding as the people's vote vanguard in the forthcoming European parliamentary and council elections would be very significant.

Labour would pick up the votes of almost all of the 48% who voted to remain in 2016, while the Tories would face a humiliating wipe out, with so much of the leave vote likely to gravitate to Farage's new Brexit party and to a somewhat resurgent UKIP.

According to senior Labour figures, what might clinch the deal for McDonnell, Thornberry, Starmer and Abbott, the leading proponents of a referendum, would be a decision by the shadow Cabinet to follow the approach of Harold Wilson's Labour Party in the 1975 referendum: namely for Corbyn himself to largely stand back from the campaign, and to allow any Labour MP or shadow minister to campaign for remain or leave, according to conscience.

That would lessen the concern of some Labour MPs in leave-voting constituencies that support for a referendum would betray their constituents.

There is of course an important corollary of such a shift by Labour to unambiguously champion a referendum - which is the failure probability of Brexit compromise talks between Government and Labour would rise from 99% to 100%.

As several Cabinet ministers have told me, even a Theresa May newly emboldened to ignore the Brexiter critics in her own party would baulk at underwriting a people's vote.

All that said, there may be a small number of weeks to run before this particular chapter in the Brexit potboiler reaches its denouement.

Negotiations between May's mandated ministers and Corbyn's team will grind on to the expected impasse. And then the PM will attempt to persuade Corbyn that if she oversees her own indicative votes by MPs on Brexit options agreed with him, he would pledge to give his party's support to the winner.

I assume Corbyn would politely rebuff what he would see as a Trojan horse for her deal.

At which point the European elections will be in full fearsome view, with Labour smelling irresistible triumph if it comes off its Brexit fence, and Tory MPs staring into the abyss of oblivion if they continue to sit on May's fence.

 

[SpurMeUp]

If Corbyn was a centrist then cool, it would work to be the referendum party (confirming any deal).

But he isn’t, and his appeal is with the disaffected, many of whom voted Brexit.

Neither of these things would matter if Corbyn (or May) were able to articulate, frame issues, and take the country with them. But both are followers not leaders. They follow the camber of those around them, without being able to decide a path form themselves and then show the nation why we’d get on board.

Blair and Camron May not be flavour of the month but at least they could lead.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Gutter Boy]

61% of labours constituencies are leave. They can't become a remain party because the remain vote is concentrated in Scotland and London, while pretty much all the rest of England and Wales is leave

 

[DTA]

61% of labours constituencies are leave. They can't become a remain party because the remain vote is concentrated in Scotland and London, while pretty much all the rest of England and Wales is leave

Those 61% won't vote Tory. And only a few will switch to Ukip or the new Farage party

 

[Grays_1890]

Those 61% won't vote Tory. And only a few will switch to Ukip or the new Farage party

Its abit of a mute point, the fact is Corbyns turned hi back on a large part of his voters and those where labour were the appeal AKA out of London and the working class.

 

[DTA]

Its abit of a mute point, the fact is Corbyns turned hi back on a large part of his voters and those where labour were the appeal AKA out of London and the working class.

Depends if Brexit is the most important thing to those voters.... Maybe just maybe... They really didn't know much about the EU... Which would be fair to say of me as well pre 2016.

Maybe they just wanted to stick it to the Tories who were visably leading the campaign to remain... Where as Corbyn was kind of luke warm on it.

maybe they care much more about Austerity then they do about Brexit.

 

[Grays_1890]

Depends if Brexit is the most important thing to those voters.... Maybe just maybe... They really didn't know much about the EU... Which would be fair to say of me as well pre 2016.

Maybe they just wanted to stick it to the Tories who were visably leading the campaign to remain... Where as Corbyn was kind of luke warm on it.

maybe they care much more about Austerity then they do about Brexit.

Its all very much guess work at this stage I would imagine.

The larger areas that voted leave like Yorkshire, Humber, East and Est Midlands and the North East I would imagine reflect the forgotten working classes, some of which Labour are suppose to target, thats their core isn't it? I would think those that felt forgotten and voted for such reasons, again the same as the US for Trump will not react well when their labour leader ultimately u-turns on their vote. Thats just my view. Regardless of how this all ends the next general election will show just how badly this had been handled, it won't look good on anyone

 

[DTA]

Its all very much guess work at this stage I would imagine.

The larger areas that voted leave like Yorkshire, Humber, East and Est Midlands and the North East I would imagine reflect the forgotten working classes, some of which Labour are suppose to target, thats their core isn't it? I would think those that felt forgotten and voted for such reasons, again the same as the US for Trump will not react well when their labour leader ultimately u-turns on their vote. Thats just my view. Regardless of how this all ends the next general election will show just how badly this had been handled, it won't look good on anyone

I think your right it is guess work. And in truth Brexit has become tribal, people have galvanized behind it as a cause, on both sides. Sticking to a position and not really willing to see the other side's perspective.

I have a business in the North west so I talk to people up there. Their position is entrenched, they feel that they (and the British people) can live through any hardship that Brexit brings... Which I agree with, but when I ask them to what ends? What will be the benefit to their life? They don't have any real answer more than the retoric that Farage etc exposed them to, which don't really stand up to scrutiny.

But they also hate the Tories as well.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said his new Brexit Party has similar policies to his old party but there is a "vast difference" in personnel.

He said the party's European election candidates were mainly business people and "high achievers who want to put the confidence back into British politics".

Mr Farage said UKIP had allowed the far right to take over and that "the brand is now tarnished".

But UKIP leader Gerard Batten called Mr Farage's comments "a lie".

The Brexit Party will be officially launched in Coventry later.

It comes after Prime Minister Theresa May agreed a Brexit delay to 31 October with the EU, with the option of leaving earlier if her withdrawal agreement is approved by Parliament.

This means the UK is likely to have to hold European Parliament elections on 23 May.

Mr Farage told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he thought the European elections would definitely take place and at the moment the UK was being "talked down to and bullied and becoming a laughing stock in the eyes of the world".

He said he was "determined to make sure the referendum result is enacted".

The party had already received £750,000 online over 10 days, he said, made up of small donations of up to £500.

"In terms of policy, there's no difference (to UKIP), but in terms of personnel there is a vast difference," Mr Farage said.

"UKIP did struggle to get enough good people into it but unfortunately what it's chosen to do is allow the far right to join it and take it over and I'm afraid the brand is now tarnished."

He promised the Brexit Party would be "deeply intolerant of all intolerance" and would represent a cross-section of society. He fully expected to field Muslim candidates, he said.

When asked about former Brexit Party leader Catherine Blaiklock, who quit over what he said were "horrible and intolerant" comments on Twitter about Islam, he said she was "an administrator".

He said: "I set the party up. She was the administrator that got it set up."

Mr Batten tweeted: "UKIP has a manifesto and policies. Farage's party is just a vehicle for him."

He said the Brexit Party's "only purpose is to re-elect him (Mr Farage)" and is a "Tory/Establishment safety valve".

 

[Grays_1890]

I think your right it is guess work. And in truth Brexit has become tribal, people have galvanized behind it as a cause, on both sides. Sticking to a position and not really willing to see the other side's perspective.

I have a business in the North west so I talk to people up there. Their position is entrenched, they feel that they (and the British people) can live through any hardship that Brexit brings... Which I agree with, but when I ask them to what ends? What will be the benefit to their life? They don't have any real answer more than the retoric that Farage etc exposed them to, which don't really stand up to scrutiny.

But they also hate the Tories as well.

I suppose if you have as many have lived through no real benefit of being in the EU or at least obvious they will take the simple, better out then in approach. After year of hardship a few more in their minds might be worth it if there is this light at the end of the tunnel.

Ultimately people were not asked to highlight the benefit of brexit when they voted it was in or out, thats not the peoples fault. Also when you vote for Government you do so in many cases through tribal stances, you are a staunch Tory or Staunch Labour etc you dont always look at the nitty gritty of the manifesto which could be a wrong thing to do however its still not your job to then run the NHS or the country or come up with strategy in the same way its not down to those that voted leave to see the plan through and come up with anything more than what they voted, thats the nature of the beast. Thats why politicians are paid the money they are