Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[r-u-s-x]

By some, apparently. I remember debating it - and its pointlessness. I find it odd you are persisting with holding it up as an option - as if it was promoted and campaigned for more than anything.

NOTHING was, was it? Everything was offered and not one thing was particularly prominent above the rest.

As I said - if I were to pick out the "main" option the one I most recall is a free trade deal above any of the off the shelf options.

But that would be as a slightly larger feature above many, not as an absolute and prominent option heavily campaigned for. And Id argue Norway was further back than a FTA.

I maintain - immigration, governence, these were the bigger (and admittedly less specific) factors in the vote.

Honouring them is honouring the vote more so than "someone mentioned Norway so that counts", IMO.

I have never said that Norway was the main but one of the things they campaigned upon - if they get it then they have a brexit they campaigned upon.

Across the board and one of the main campaign promises was good access to the Single Market and Customs union - Only the cranks campaigned on no deal in fact one of the most prominent messages was this would not happen - No deal honours the Leave campaign less than Norway because at least there was some campaigning for that.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

"They" being a handful of people, getting a deal that doesnt honour the big themes of the vote.

Its clear we arent going to agree on this one. Needless to say I dont think Norway honours Brexit at all, its a compromised situation - not really leaving, if thats all thats really on offer then why even bother?

No deal honours the themes of leave much more.

 

[r-u-s-x]

"They" being a handful of people, getting a deal that doesnt honour the big themes of the vote.

Its clear we arent going to agree on this one. Needless to say I dont think Norway honours Brexit at all, its a compromised situation - not really leaving, if thats all thats really on offer then why even bother?

No deal honours the themes of leave much more.

no deal was actively campaigned against by the leave while Norway was one of the many things they campaigned for.

"themes" and what type of brexit honour the spirit only came about after the vote.

 

[StephenH]

The ERG must be credited with sticking it to their own party and finally to the UK with thier tedious obsessiveness.

 

[r-u-s-x]

The ERG must be credited with sticking it to their own party and finally to the UK with thier tedious obsessiveness.

they are winning though - their end goal was no deal and we are closer to that than they would have thought possible due to the incompetence of the "mainstream" politicians currently running the process and opposition.

 

[StephenH]

they are winning though - their end goal was no deal and we are closer to that than they would have thought possible due to the incompetence of the "mainstream" politicians currently running the process and opposition.

So we have possibly civil unrest and or a recession. Yippee.
I can’t wait.

I thought no deal was going to be voted out....proves how much I don’t pay attention!

 

[monkeybarry]

No they werent, not that I saw. Canada + and Norway + were seen as options. The + being cherry picking advantages that the base deals do not have, and so, of course, being far from a given anyway.

Its not about "my" desired flavour. Its about the general themes at the time, and since, which you seem to be re-writing today.




It is. And things are far too fluid to even predict patterns right now IMHO.

Even in more stable times recent polls havent actually been indicative of voting patterns have they?





A50 being extended isnt assured. Neither is, if it does happen, for how long. And if it does the EU are going to expect us to ask for an extension with a plan in hand at the same time. Which, in reality, means ramping pressure on us to conform to something easily acceptable to them and just about acceptable to us in desperate times.

"A50 extended" is a whole can of worms on its own.

Id quite expect Labour to get a GE, and as a minority as you say - but there wont be a peoples vote, you can forget that.

Corbyn will do all he can to avoid it. Instead he will try and take his "I want a customs union deal with the ability to have a say in EU trading policy" to them. Of course get laughed out of town, and end up exactly where we are now - off the shelf deal or no deal. Difference is, in this scenario Id prefer no deal and (for better or worse) Id trust the Tories to be stubborn enough to see it through - I dont think the same of Labour

Changing the EU from inside? Regardless of my thinking of Corbyn and the chance of him negotiating his way out of a wet paper bag - that simply isnt going to happen. The EU is on a set course, ever closer union, theres nothing going to change that.

McDonald (with a nod from Corbyn) and Starmer have both said in statements and in response to ditecd questions that they support a second ref.
That was in debates and statements today and yesterday in the commons.

It will be a manifesto position for a GE.
Vote for us, we'll get a deal. If the deal is voted down, we have a second ref as a back up instead of no deal.

 

[r-u-s-x]

So we have possibly civil unrest and or a recession. Yippee.
I can’t wait.

I thought no deal was going to be voted out....proves how much I don’t pay attention!

no deal will be voted out - but the fact its got this far - also need EU to play for the vote to mean anything.

 

[StephenH]

no deal will be voted out - but the fact its got this far - also need EU to play for the vote to mean anything.

The ERG have used thier party as a kamikaze vehicle.
They are pontificating toffee nosed scum imo.
They care little for anybody other than their own kind who are financially bulletproof anyway.

 

[Rorschach]

no deal will be voted out - but the fact its got this far - also need EU to play for the vote to mean anything.

No deal is very much in play. In fact no matter how the vote goes tonight it is the only concrete outcome on the table. Everything else is still under negotiations.

 

[P.D.]

The ERG must be credited with sticking it to their own party and finally to the UK with thier tedious obsessiveness.

Not necessarily, if the talk of indicative votes gets through tomorrow then their no deal scenario won't win and it will be a softer brexit. If that happens then they will have blown their best chance, that's why 40 more reasonable MP's switched their vote yesterday as they can see this.

Then what do they do, back a Labour no confidence motion and collapse everything?

 

[the dza]

Not necessarily, if the talk of indicative votes gets through tomorrow then their no deal scenario won't win and it will be a softer brexit. If that happens then they will have blown their best chance, that's why 40 more reasonable MP's switched their vote yesterday as they can see this.

Then what do they do, back a Labour no confidence motion and collapse everything?

If it's possible for them to do that and then fight a Brexit election with a leader from the Tory right who wants no-deal, maybe they would.

Then again, I remember Reese-Mogg saying he'd never back Labour in a confidence motion against the government, so maybe not.

I think, when it's said and done, we get an extension and then end up with soft-brexit. I hope so anyway, then just move on from all this b0ll0cks.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Without import duties our exports would be more competitive.

Who's import duties? Just because we don't apply duties to imports, it doesn't follow that other nations will get rid of theirs too. UK exporters will still face tariffs. And when it comes to negotiating free trade deals, the country in question will not want to give us anything back becuase the starting position will be hugely advantageous to them: free open access to our market for their producers, while they protect their own domestic market from our producers.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I think, when it's said and done, we get an extension and then end up with soft-brexit. I hope so anyway, then just move on from all this b0ll0cks.

Change soft to no and we're on. At least a year ago predicted we'd have an extenion to A50 and then a referendum. The thing with soft brexit: people weigh it up and realise they get the same as in the EU but less sovereignty, less control. So as nayim says, why bother? Becuase of that realisation, Brexiteers are being pushed (by their egos) into a harder Brexit. Which of course is even worse for the UK. But they can't hold their hands up and admit that both hard and soft exits are detrimental to the UK, worse than we have now, becuase of course that would make them Remain! If it wasn't so serious it would be comic.

 

[scaramanga]

without us imposing import duties their exports are more competitive. They will be applying import duties to our goods making ours less competitive.

If their exports are cheaper and as good as our then they should have a larger share of the market.

 

[scaramanga]

Who's import duties? Just because we don't apply duties to imports, it doesn't follow that other nations will get rid of theirs too. UK exporters will still face tariffs. And when it comes to negotiating free trade deals, the country in question will not want to give us anything back becuase the starting position will be hugely advantageous to them: free open access to our market for their producers, while they protect their own domestic market from our producers.

Yes we will, but 85% of our GDP is internal. Savings on imports would lift the entire economy.

For many companies being free of EU regulation will more than cover any import duties applied.

 

[r-u-s-x]

If their exports are cheaper and as good as our then they should have a larger share of the market.

What if they have state aid to produce? And our exporters?

Actually I know you believe this you are as much an extremist as you think Corbyn is you know.

 

[scaramanga]

What if they have state aid to produce? And our exporters?

Actually I know you believe this you are as much an extremist as you think Corbyn is you know.

If they have state aid then they will eventually run out of other people's money to spend. The lack of competition will make them inefficient and lack innovation.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Yes we will, but 85% of our GDP in internal. Savings on imports would lift the entire economy.

For many companies being free of EU regulation will more than cover any import duties applied.

Provided they are not undercut by some Chinese produce for example. The things your company makes for example must be cheaper to produce in Vietnam or China?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[P.D.]

If it's possible for them to do that and then fight a Brexit election with a leader from the Tory right who wants no-deal, maybe they would.

Then again, I remember Reese-Mogg saying he'd never back Labour in a confidence motion against the government, so maybe not.

I think, when it's said and done, we get an extension and then end up with soft-brexit. I hope so anyway, then just move on from all this b0ll0cks.

I think May's deal will eventually go through, quite a few Labour MPs will vote for it as well. It was obvious it would lose yesterday so no point sticking their neck out but if it looks closer I think some of them will vote for it. Some of them are in constituencies with 65 - 70% leave votes so can't really go with a year or more long extension and they have their workers rights changes as well.

Most of the ERG will fold bar 10-15 of the hardest.