Football, a GHod given talent?

[awesome dawson]

At what age do you think a top level footballer is identified these days?

I know there will always be exceptions like Ian Wright, Vardy even Lampard to a certain extent but I'm interested to hear members thoughts on what age kids are earmarked for success.

 

[Robbo]

I believe it is impossible to predict individual future success at virtually any age, no matter how talented a player might seem. You could look amazing at 8, 10, 13, 15, 18 years, and still not make it at a top level. There are plenty examples of great talent who stopped developing.

I do think though that you could separate the potential top level players from those you're certain won't make it sometime in the early teens, when players normally would start to mature in many aspects of the game. So you'd be left with a group of talented players where you "know" someone will make it to the top, but not neccessarily which individual(s).

That's my very uninformed opinion; I'm sure those on here who has done coaching/player developing work can enlighten us more.

 

[parklane1]

I believe it is impossible to predict individual future success at virtually any age, no matter how talented a player might seem. You could look amazing at 8, 10, 13, 15, 18 years, and still not make it at a top level. There are plenty examples of great talent who stopped developing.

I do think though that you could separate the potential top level players from those you're certain won't make it sometime in the early teens, when players normally would start to mature in many aspects of the game. So you'd be left with a group of talented players where you "know" someone will make it to the top, but not neccessarily which individual(s).

That's my very uninformed opinion; I'm sure those on here who has done coaching/player developing work can enlighten us more.

You have hit the tickle my balls with a feather there mate.

 

[bjholmem]

Don't give up on anyone until they turn 27. And you can probably tell a lot by looking at who works harder, trains more and is dedicated to playing football. Don't look at who develops early, that's easily countered at a later stage.

And read the book Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski. That book tells you pretty much everything you need to know to understand how the mechanics of the football business works.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

I think it's impossible to tell as there are so many components in the development of a player such as physical development, technical ability, their ability to learn, personal life and being at the right club or working with the right people. It's like most things in life you have to work hard and ability alone is not enough.

 

[Rorschach]

I believe it is impossible to predict individual future success at virtually any age, no matter how talented a player might seem. You could look amazing at 8, 10, 13, 15, 18 years, and still not make it at a top level. There are plenty examples of great talent who stopped developing.

I do think though that you could separate the potential top level players from those you're certain won't make it sometime in the early teens, when players normally would start to mature in many aspects of the game. So you'd be left with a group of talented players where you "know" someone will make it to the top, but not neccessarily which individual(s).

That's my very uninformed opinion; I'm sure those on here who has done coaching/player developing work can enlighten us more.

Good post.

There are such a small amount of players that make a living as a pro and an even smaller number again who make it at an elite club. At the top end of the game the difference between player A and B technique wise can be very small. One might be a little better at one thing or another. On the training field they all can ping a 50 yard pass or smack one into the top corner. fudge it I can do that (50% of the time!) In the pressure of a game things are a lot different and that is when you see which players have the calmness and decision making that will separate them from the horde.

You are right though, you can never tell which young players are going to make it or not so I've stopped trying to guess. Even year on year players can surprise you. I have a kid at my club who since last year went from the slowest player on his team to almost the fastest. His running style was a bit weird but a coach came in and worked on it week on week, and now he's fast. I've also seen the opposite where a growth spurt robs a kid of all their speed. I've seen internationals develop and other players who I thought were better than them disappear into obscurity. There is no magic formula. I think I'm coaching a future international at the moment but a hundred things might happen between now and then which will decide their fate . Actually I have a good feeling about this one but who knows how it will pan out for them.

 

[Raziel]

Echo for most of the comments ...

The other thing I would add is does the player get the opportunity that suits their style, e.g. would a Modric have gotten a chance in an English club 20 years ago? players like Vardy are very good at sides setup with low possession, counter attack at pace. It's part of the reason you don't see a lot of poachers or outright wingers in modern game, do we really have less people with that style/inclination, or do they just not get a chance as very few seek that at highest level anymore?

 

[Wilheldiva]

you can only really rule people out of a professional career at those ages (<10). impossible to say who will make it for sure.

 

[Mr_B]

Players like Kane, Vardy, Droba are all great examples of late bloomers and i'm sure there are countless wunderkids who at 13/14 were signing professional contracts but never ended up playing in one game.