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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by markysimmo, 27 Feb 2020.

  1. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    Yes, i made it simple for people to follow. I haven't included those who had only one dose, had two doses but second dose was less than 14 days prior to specimen date etc, ie those who had some doses but wouldn't be described as "fully vaccinated"

    Go back and look at the report (week 45) and fact check me better;)
     
  2. Lilbaz

    Lilbaz Michael Carrick

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    If you and the people you live with have had the vax or covid i wouldn't worry too much. Unless you are meeting with someone who is vulnerable.
     
  3. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    Oh i can add perfectly fine. Ditto go back to the report for week 45 and get back to me;)
     
  4. johnola

    johnola Teemu Tainio

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    This is from table 6, page 22 of that document:

    upload_2021-11-13_21-15-6.jpeg

    Rows are by age group, youngest at the top.

    Pretty damn clear that vaccinations make a massive positive difference across all age groups.

    And the footnotes relate to the fact that the elderly and protected groups are very much more likely to be in hospital with covid not because of it.
     
    SteveAWOL, AuroRaman and Lilbaz like this.
  5. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    That's all nice and lovely, but how about looking at tables 4 and 5? Fact-check away...
     
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  6. johnola

    johnola Teemu Tainio

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    Those tables are the raw data before they are made per capita.

    Much more useful to have the per capita figures as sooner or later the unvaccinated population will be nil as sanity and early covid deaths prevail.
     
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  7. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    I actually disagree. I think if the vaccine was able to clearly show a direct benefit, you would need less of the per capita figures and simply figures that show of x people who died y hadn't been fully vaccinated.

    If there was a measles outbreak and a number of children died, the focus would simply be on how many of those who died were vaccinated vs not vaccinated.
    Bringing in per capita rates of deaths by vaccination status is a red herring to me.
    You would simply expect that by now, given how much we have heard that "the unvaccinated are driving the pandemic" etc, in any given month period that the unvaccinated would make up the majority of the covid deaths recorded and the majority of those being admitted into hospital.

    The fact that those tables do not show that shows the the notion that "the unvaccinated are driving the pandemic" and "need to be seperated from everyone else to stop the spread" is nonsense..
     
  8. Lilbaz

    Lilbaz Michael Carrick

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    So if there were 10,000 children that got measels.9,500 were vaccinated 500 were not. 500 vaccinated died and 500 unvaccinated died. You'd think the vaccine didn't work because the same amount of kids died from each group?
     
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  9. markysimmo

    markysimmo Johnny nice-tits

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  10. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    How about if there are 10,000 children who got measles; 9,500 of them had been vaccinated, 500 had not been.
    500 of these children died;

    Scenario 1: of those who died 450 had been vaccinated, whilst 50 had not been.

    Scenario 2: of those who died 50 had been vaccinated, whilst 450 had not been.

    If the vaccine was effective, which of the above scenarios would you expect?
     
  11. Lilbaz

    Lilbaz Michael Carrick

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    Either
     
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  12. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    Eh? Please explain...
     
  13. johnola

    johnola Teemu Tainio

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    Do it per capita. It’ll really help.

    In scenario one, one in ten who died was unvaccinated, but in the population with measles one in 20 was unvaccinated.

    If you vaccinated everybody then the death rate for vaccinated kids applies to the whole lot. That is 450/0.95 = 474 kids instead of 500.

    If none were vaccinated, well it would clearly be 1000 kids who died.

    -
    scenario 2 just improves the vaccinated survival rate even further.
     
    Last edited: 13 Nov 2021
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  14. Lilbaz

    Lilbaz Michael Carrick

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    Both saved lives. I've been drinking and can't be arsed to find a calculator so my maths will be rough guesses.

    Scenario 1) 1 in 10 unvaccinated died. 1 in 21 unvaccinated died. Giving the vaccine an efficacy of over 50%. If none of them were vaccinated over 1000 would have died. So the vaccine saved over 500 lives.

    Scenario 2) 9 out of 10 unvaccinated died. 1 in 190 of the vaccinated died. If none were vaccinated 9000 would have died. So the vaccine saved 8950 lives.

    Bit tinkled so might have made a mistake, but thats the basic jist of it.
     
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  15. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    Per capita shouldn't be needed; you should simply see a higher proportion of those dying being the unvaccinated (if the vaccine is to be marketed as being effective etc).

    What about the reverse scenario:
    There are 10,000 children who got measles; 500 of them had been vaccinated, 9,500 had not been.
    500 of these children died;

    Scenario 1: 450 had been vaccinated, 50 had not been
    Scenario 2: 50 had been vaccinated, 450 had not been

    Which scenario would be what you'd expect if the vaccine is to be considered effective?
     
  16. johnola

    johnola Teemu Tainio

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    I edited my reply with an illustration
     
  17. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    I think the "would have died" stats are slightly disingenuous, personally. A lot of assumptions made on death rates, "who would have died" etc.

    I guess the only way to really settle it would be to have similar figures from last year for the same period. However, perhaps for another time...Cheers from me!
     
  18. johnola

    johnola Teemu Tainio

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    You’d find the reverse but the maths is the same.
     
  19. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    Bottom line: in any given month, given how much of the population has been vaccinated and how much we are told that "the unvaccianted are driving the pandemic", the majority of cases and deaths recorded in those reports should actually be the unvaccinated...
     
  20. Lilbaz

    Lilbaz Michael Carrick

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    Symptom study still showing a fall today although slight. 65,019 new cases. Currently infected 1,036,760.
     

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