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Coronavirus

scaramanga said:
If those assumptions carry no cost, yes.
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There is a cost. You know I won't argue that. But medical advice can't be made on assumptions unfortunately. Especially when we know so little about the new variants. And I do think the science would strongly suggest it is going to be around a year and even after reinfection will only be mild. With the vaccination and large amount of folk who have had it we will see good herd immunity by May is my view.
 
Seeing the various stories of couples with Covid, could it give a clue to the conundrum re. why some get this virus so lightly and others are struck down?

If someone could rate couples' severity of covid infection, and see if they tally with their partner or not; we would have some evidence as to whether previous exposure to say covid-xx colds might have made some more/less vulnerable. The logic being that couples would have most likely shared a previous cold that might have semi-immunised them. Seems like quite a few couples both get struck down, which is statistically unlikely as most people are not severely affected, even the elderly. It could be a genetic disposition or related to someone's general health too of course. Or a combination of these factors.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
South America travel ban over Brazil variant fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55666198

Given so many flights from South America go via Madrid and other European hubs, I wonder what measures the government will have in place to cover those taking indirect flights?
Anyone who saw Boris in front of the Liaison Select Committee yesterday will have witnessed his total inability to answer questions about the lack of measures in place to deal with people arriving on indirect flights from South Africa - almost as if he didn't realise you could do that.
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Yep.

Yvette Cooper coolly, methodically took apart every single one of his responses. He’s a chancer, a bluffer, he wings it and was utterly out of his depth versus her.
 
LutonSpurs said:
There is a cost. You know I won't argue that. But medical advice can't be made on assumptions unfortunately. Especially when we know so little about the new variants. And I do think the science would strongly suggest it is going to be around a year and even after reinfection will only be mild. With the vaccination and large amount of folk who have had it we will see good herd immunity by May is my view.
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I agree on your assesment of the level of immunity we're likely to see.

I'm not sure why immunity is likely to be less than permanent though. It appears as if previous SARS variants have left people immune for over 17 years now. There are no statistically significant reinfection numbers for this variant and it's been around for over a year now.

Outside of panic and fear mongering, there doesn't appear to be any reason to doubt long term immunity.
 
scaramanga said:
I agree on your assesment of the level of immunity we're likely to see.

I'm not sure why immunity is likely to be less than permanent though. It appears as if previous SARS variants have left people immune for over 17 years now. There are no statistically significant reinfection numbers for this variant and it's been around for over a year now.

Outside of panic and fear mongering, there doesn't appear to be any reason to doubt long term immunity.
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You know the answer here, it would have been irresponsible to hypothesise based on historical data for a different strain.
 
LutonSpurs said:
You know the answer here, it would have been irresponsible to hypothesise based on historical data for a different strain.
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From a position of science, absolutely. It is the role of those researching the data to hold the position that until we know the answer, we cannot assume anything.

In the absence of complete information, it's the role of the government to make decisions under a reasonable assumption of likelihood.
 
scaramanga said:
From a position of science, absolutely. It is the role of those researching the data to hold the position that until we know the answer, we cannot assume anything.

In the absence of complete information, it's the role of the government to make decisions under a reasonable assumption of likelihood.
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Nope. It's to balance likelihood against impact to drive policy.
Risk management 101.
 
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fantastic to see the number of new cases in London/SE almost half of what they were during Christmas and NY period.

Won't translate to hospitilisations for a few more weeks still, but really positive.
 
Diamond Lights said:
fantastic to see the number of new cases in London/SE almost half of what they were during Christmas and NY period.

Won't translate to hospitilisations for a few more weeks still, but really positive.
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It's a bad idea to compare current case numbers to peaks over Christmas. The Christmas numbers are spiky because tests weren't being carried out on some days, so they were catching up after. Cases are down but probably not by that much.
 
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