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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by markysimmo, 27 Feb 2020.

  1. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    we will be paying that to France to stop them just opening the beach - which is amusingly ironic
     
  2. Diamond Lights

    Diamond Lights Espen Baardsen

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    Lot of interesting articles that Brexit will be fairly tame due to Covid biting harder, means the hit will be fairly on par with our recovery from Covid anyway
     
  3. Parklaner81

    Parklaner81 Steve Hodge

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    Even without Ferguson's intervention, do you think our government would've withstood the media pressure that would have come from going the Sweden route? I doubt it somehow.
     
    Grays_1890 likes this.
  4. P.D.

    P.D. Chris Armstrong

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    Quite an interesting one, looking at the data we'd peaked before lockdown officially started. I think 8 April was the day of highest deaths and there's a 3/4 week lead in I believe before someone passes so it looks like the peak was during the informal lockdown the week before when we were advised not to go out.

    We have had a massively long tail though - far far longer than any of the other European countries who reduced cases to a much lower level at one point. I don't think we ever got below 500.

    I think the lockdown was strong enough, the problem was that lots of people just blatantly didn't follow it - whether that's because they don't trust the gov't, don't like being told what to do, Cummings effect, didn't believe the horror stories or a combo of these things and more I don't know.
     
  5. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    a strong Gov would, you expect a gov with an 80 seat majority to be strong.

    but just proves the point they are all reactionary.
     
  6. milo

    milo Bert Bliss Staff Member

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    A long read but worth 15 minutes of your time

     
  7. Parklaner81

    Parklaner81 Steve Hodge

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    Agree on this, it is pretty much the point I made yesterday - we had a much shallower and longer decline than others. What was the reason for that? However it is termed, I can only think it was strongly influenced by insufficient strength of/adherence to the lockdown. My memory is that it held up well enough for only about 2-3 weeks before people started blatantly disregarding it, and the slippery slope began.
     
  8. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    isn’t part the of the issue we don’t actually know the correct figures?

    We don’t have a cut off either - we are still reporting deaths from May.

    The PHE figures are a joke.
     
  9. LutonSpurs

    LutonSpurs Tim Sherwood

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    This recession and the impending act of self harm (Brexit) are going to hurt us. It really makes me sad.
     
    thfcsteff, Mikey10 and Baleforce like this.
  10. Parklaner81

    Parklaner81 Steve Hodge

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    A symptom of the hysterical, 24 hour rolling news age - strong governments, in this sense are a thing of the past I fear.
     
    Legohamster likes this.
  11. LutonSpurs

    LutonSpurs Tim Sherwood

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    We can all look at Germany as a model for how we could have reacted.
     
    thfcsteff likes this.
  12. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    I wonder how this would have played out without social media - that’s more of an issue than the the news in my view
     
  13. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Nick Barmby

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    I agree they have had died it well

    Comparisons aside I think most countries are going to have their own unique battle from now on, now it comes down to the unseen disease of economy and mental health versus COVID each country will react in a way that best meets their countries recover rather than battling the disease itself.
     
  14. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Nick Barmby

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    I like how the chancellor talks, much sense and reality. There is no playbook to getting the economy moving
     
    P.D. likes this.
  15. P.D.

    P.D. Chris Armstrong

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    I don't think any country knows exact figures but I'd wager the UK's are far closer to the truth than many countries. Spain and France didn't even include care homes in their initial stats, Italy too for a time. Spain even now reports their death toll as the number of deaths that happened the previous day on that exact day e.g if yesterday they had 10 deaths but another 17 were reported as catch up from previous days it's reported as 10.

    I don't see why we should have a cut off, if the data comes through late because it's not released for a long time then it's important they're included in the data otherwise we'd just be making it up.
     
  16. scaramanga

    scaramanga Teddy Sheringham Staff Member

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    How much value did all those 80 year old have to the economy?

    I call flimflam.
     
    Legohamster likes this.
  17. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    fair.

    but I don’t think other countries are having a review because you can’t recover from it in the U.K.

    I think there has to be better visibility - you have dig to see the break down.

    Question about a cut off - when we look at this and get figures - how long after the year do you think we should include other deaths as the counter cost - say cancer/heart issues?
     
  18. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Nick Barmby

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    From what I read the other day about our figures being wrong it led me to believe we are over stating the figures whilst others are understating should it be carehomes or clasifying as heart issues etc rather than COVID

    Did I misunderstand that?
     
  19. P.D.

    P.D. Chris Armstrong

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    I agree - have you seen the dashboard (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) - the figures could be cooked but I'd say this is quite transparent information. No idea if any other countries have similar.

    Agree on the cutoff, I was referring to cases where they don't get details of the death till much later because they have to contact next of kin etc first which can sometimes take months. Only when that process is complete can they be added to the statistics.

    There should definitely be a cut off, it won't be 400% accurate but will give us something. Seems the lead time is 3/4 weeks from infection to death but some go on ventilators so a cut off around 6 weeks would seem appropriate. They could always maintain 2 data sets (with and without the cut off applied so people can see both).
     
  20. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    i think it could be bother.

    I would say I trust others more than ours, they seem to have realised they had issues with reporting weeks ago and done something about it.
     

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