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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by markysimmo, 27 Feb 2020.

  1. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 John Lacy

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    Yep the washing hands bit took a particular battering.

    The idea of us not knowing enough to fully judge was also pilloried

    The Government have made mistakes, no doubt, 400% they have but the idea in a national pandemic to wait to know the facts before jumping off a bridge in anger was lost on many and many of the accusations were false because of not knowing enough.

    Even the gold standard WHO have been wrong
     
    Last edited: 22 Jul 2020
    Parklaner81 likes this.
  2. LutonSpurs

    LutonSpurs Mido

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    I don't know the answer to this. I guess we are still learning.

    Not sure. I think they were criticised for being slow to lockdown when we had the opportunity to reduce infection rates like Germany.
     
  3. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 John Lacy

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    But In hindsight that didn’t matter?? I’m trying to get my head round it
     
  4. scaramanga

    scaramanga Vivian Woodward Staff Member

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    Fortunately the conversations here aren't taxing enough to distract me from my day job.
     
  5. Parklaner81

    Parklaner81 Steve Hodge

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    They certainly were openly ridiculed for stressing the importance of handwashing. I could name names but I won't - I don't mean you.
     
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  6. LutonSpurs

    LutonSpurs Mido

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    I'm digesting the report fully. I'll come back and explain what I can my friend.
     
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  7. LutonSpurs

    LutonSpurs Mido

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    It's fair to say that people's politics and echo chambers largely defined their positions on the whole scenario. I don't think many of us can claim otherwise. I include myself in this although I have really tried to not let it sway me and I hope that has shown in my contributions to the discussion in this thread.
     
    P.D., Grays_1890, scaramanga and 2 others like this.
  8. parklane1

    parklane1 Gary Stevens

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    Bingo.
     
    LutonSpurs likes this.
  9. ricky2tricky4city

    ricky2tricky4city Pedro Mendes

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    No, i'd suggest giving the high level of unemployed jobs detecting and reporting the virus and building hospitals :D
     
  10. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 John Lacy

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    I think the next few months the huge levels of unemployment to be experienced is going to be unbelievable
     
  11. Legohamster

    Legohamster Frederic Kanoute

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    dumping infected people In homes

    People not wearing masks/washing hands

    Incorrectly reporting - anyone with covid that dies is a covid death

    the whole lock down rather than common sense will be seen as a mistake when we have 15 percent unemployment/more deaths through other illnesses and the like.
     
    glasgowspur and scaramanga like this.
  12. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 John Lacy

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    The issue with the lockdown was that a large majority wanted it rather than a common sense approach, this forum was a HUGE hotbed for that mindset, was probably 2/3 of us championing a different approach. So not to say who was right or wrong (I still maintain we are months from knowing) they bowed to popular belief.

    The carehome stuff was a huge mistake HUGE

    A lot of other issues come from personal responsibility, washing hands and wearing masks, I’ve seeen 4 fights in one week for people refusing to wear masks on transport.
     
  13. Legohamster

    Legohamster Frederic Kanoute

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    scaremongering and the failure to communicate the actual risks to groups was the meltdown

    we absolutely over reacted to this, because of what was happening in Italy without actually looking at the data and how best to do this.

    then you have pillocks like Neil Ferguson spouting another horrible prediction (how was this man still in Sage) that people picked up on - how close are Sweden to the 90k deaths?

    A shielding of sorts was needed, but not a complete shut down.

    There are going to be a lot of angry people in 6 months who have lost people to the virus through poor shielding and those that have lost loved ones from cancer
     
  14. johnola

    johnola Steed Malbranque

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    I read it. Very interesting.

    So largely the death rate and caseload in a country was linked strongly to the median age, prevalence of obesity and increased wealth. And number of number of nurses per patient- factors outside the governments response.

    Transmission (r) was flattened by locking down. But it seems the shape of the epemiological curve was pretty much baked in the pie once the virus had entered.

    Note also that lockdown strongly improved rates of recovery. Whilst the failure to close borders data is compromised by the lag in the data used in the sample of countries, and may explain why this indicates a negative link to the caseload per million.

    They seem at a bit of loss to understand the evidence that smokers seem to have lower case prevalence and decreased mortality rates.

    So to be safe. Be young, poor, smoke and thin and live amongst nurses.

    Don’t be fat, rich and lazy and live amongst similar folk.

    But the governments failures in relation to cases are that an earlier lockdown may have improved rates of recovery (survival).
     
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  15. Mikey10

    Mikey10 Teemu Tainio

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    A big problem for the UK is that we didn’t do anything properly.

    We gave up on contact tracing.

    We locked down later than almost everyone else - hence we have higher death rates per million than almost any other country in the world.

    Our ‘lockdown’ wasn’t anything like as strict as in other European countries. Again, this affected the death rate and the rate at which the disease declined.

    We made a mess of protecting care homes.

    Our test and trace system continues to perform poorly which means that we are more likely to be in a worrying position come winter.

    All of this has sapped public confidence and means that a lot of people are now hesitant about resuming anything resembling normal life - with continuing knock-on effects on the economy.

    Letting the virus run rampant is an option - but it doesn’t look a particularly appealing one given the current situation in the US.
     
  16. Mikey10

    Mikey10 Teemu Tainio

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    Not sure the number of nurses per patient can be considered outside the government’s response.
     
  17. Legohamster

    Legohamster Frederic Kanoute

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    I agree with all of that btw

    I don’t think anyone but the maddest anti lockdowners would say nothing should have been done

    but social distancing/masks/WFH and basic hygiene was the answer.
     
  18. Trixster

    Trixster Nico Claesen

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    Must work in IT then cos I end up doing fudge all too
     
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  19. johnola

    johnola Steed Malbranque

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    they take years to train Mike. They had weeks/months for the response
     
  20. johnola

    johnola Steed Malbranque

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    Ferguson’s model seemed to preclude individuals from changing their behaviour in the face of a pandemic of a killer virus. An oversight which I think you share.
     
    Last edited: 22 Jul 2020

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