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American politics

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by Danishfurniturelover, 26 Jan 2016.

  1. braineclipse

    braineclipse Gary Stevens

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    Cheers.

    First of all the world is not getting worse and Europe is not a mess.

    You're talking about immigration and American that can see what's coming? I think you need to read up on immigration and the US...
    Actually makes me laugh a bit how so many Europeans have been all superior about how the US have failed to handle their immigration problems in a sensitive manner. Been a real elitism about it. Turns out we as Europeans are really no better.
     
  2. DublinSpur

    DublinSpur Scott Parker

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    If it is true that Europe is a mess and the world is getting worse (big IF) then maybe... just maybe... it's because we've already spent a century voting idiots in charge?

    And maybe... just maybe... the solution is not "more idiots". Just a thought.
     
    Yermiyahu and AuroRaman like this.
  3. thfcsteff

    thfcsteff Willie Hall

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    This is the key point, and the one which carries the most concern as we simply do not know how many previously non-voting my tits he has managed to mobilize. There are a lot of non-voters in the US, there are also a lot of my tits. The danger will be if he hits, say, 10% in terms of galvanizing the 'magic' combo of both sets in the same bus. That would represent a threat.
     
  4. thfcsteff

    thfcsteff Willie Hall

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    In short, yes, although with a much stronger sense of media and how to use it. I cannot see him winning.
     
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  5. Rorschach

    Rorschach Vivian Woodward

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    Ha.
     
  6. Bullet

    Bullet Steffen Freund

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  7. the dza

    the dza Christian Ziege

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    The good thing about Trump is that he's not Ted Cruz.

    Originally, I thought Hillary would walk the Dem nomination, but old Bernie has got a lot of momentum behind him. I'd love to see him (Bernie) win, with Elizabeth Warren as his VP running mate.
     
  8. spasm

    spasm Gudni Bergsson

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    racist cnut
     
  9. monkeybarry

    monkeybarry Chris Perry

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    Well said.

    Re the 1v1 though, I'm not so sure its that clear cut, although I suspect the radical Christian vote will get Cruz through- and he is alot scarier than Trump.
     
  10. Gilzeantoscore

    Gilzeantoscore Mitchell Thomas

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    This is a fact. The extreme right wing of the Republican Party believe in manifest destiny, they believe that GHod has granted the USA a special role to dominate the world. No really this is true. It explains the irrational positions taken by this bunch of deluded happy clappers.
     
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  11. braineclipse

    braineclipse Gary Stevens

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    Sanders looks quite comfortably the best option in a very weak field (on both sides).

    Both seems scary. Benefit and disadvantage to Cruz is that he's more of a party man. Everyone in the republican race now is shifting to the right and crazy brick is being said. If Cruz wins he will probably listen to his party and get a bit more moderated by them. Trump is way closer to an independent, and I do wonder if he could actually be honest in some of the brick he's saying. I don't think he'll be controlled as easily by more moderate forces in the party if in charge.

    Really between a rock and a hard place to choose between the two though.

    True. I think a lot of rational republicans are hating the state of their party at the moment. "Hijacked by the Tea Party" and pulled ever more to the religious right.

    Has made some it a lot more difficult for them to actually win a presidential election though. fudge me, an old white man lost to Obama... Perhaps I'm presuming more racism than is actually there, but I don't think Obama would have won against a rational candidate from a more moderate republican party.
     
  12. monkeybarry

    monkeybarry Chris Perry

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    Of the two, Trump.
    It would actually be fitting, the US has always seen itself as a company and he would try and run it like one.
    It would be totally new politics - and either the new way or a total disaster.
    But politics is stagnant everywhere else in the West, so who knows, maybe it's the solution.
    fudge that's scary
     
  13. braineclipse

    braineclipse Gary Stevens

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    Dan Carlin on his common sense podcast often has interesting takes on what's going on (imo at least).

    He's been rather positive about Trump because he can expose the cracks and show people what's actually going on because he's an outsider. Carlin in huge on the issue of money in (US) politics in particular. But even Carlin seems scared of what Trump can actually do if he gets into power. He's just so much of an unknown quantity. His financial record is massively overstated and whatever skills he has aren't necessarily transferable to a political leader situation.
     
  14. scaramanga

    scaramanga Mel Hopkins Staff Member

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    The less alarmist experts I've read are all pointing to the fact that, historically, a huge poll lead for the primaries at this point means very little. There have been quite a few Republican candidates with large poll leads at this stage who most of us would probably struggle to remember.

    Many are also pointing out that those polling for Trump are not traditional voters and that it's hard to estimate how many will turn up this time.

    On the downside (for those of us who are not Trump fans), there's a lot of in-fighting between the other Republican candidates and it currently looks unlikely that they'll all gather behind one candidate. I can't see that lasting though, I imagine most would want a good position behind another candidate rather than scrap to the end. They'll only do this if they think their candidate can win the presidential elections though and I don't think that most Republicans think Trump or Cruz can do that.

    In Trump's favour when it comes to a presidential election, is that people are currently scared and scared people do change the way they vote drastically (insert neat side-stepping of Godwin here). There's also the fact that, for all his great social policies, Sanders has some pretty far out economic ideas - some of which would be considered fairly left wing on this side of the pond. Clinton is just a fudgewit and I suspect that if she wins the nomination there will be a huge pile of confidential email leaked from her private account that has been held back for later use. They'll also bring up her "struggles with the truth", which are numerous even for a politician.

    Looking at who is available, it's not a great time to be an American. In terms of knock-on effects for the UK, I'm hoping for either a moderate Republican or a puppet Clinton kept well away from anything she can do damage to or with - that's about the best we can hope for.
     
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  15. braineclipse

    braineclipse Gary Stevens

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    Cheers.

    Yeah the apparent problems with both of the likely Democratic candidates can throw everything wide open even with someone like Trump or Cruz running for the Republicans.

    Not a Clinton fan at all, and like you I think she might struggle and there will be a dumpster fire. Sanders accepting to use the "S-word" about himself is going to make the third of the US population that can't even spell communism never mind define it just fear-vote for whoever has a R next to their name.

    Edit: Bookmakers have Trump as a significant favourite to win the nomination: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

    If you had to guess, what would you say the odds are (btw, did you listen to the super predictors episode of Freakonomics?)
     
    Last edited: 29 Jan 2016
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  16. scaramanga

    scaramanga Mel Hopkins Staff Member

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    It's a strange world when minimum wage voters are against the idea of a minimum wage, but that's 'Murica for you.

    I'd like to see their starting odds - everything since is based on where others are putting their money. I'd say that currently Trump or not (the only thing I've really been paying attention to) is 50:50. If the rest of the party can get themselves sorted out then I'd expect Trump's chances to drop to about 30%.

    I'm about 3 months behind on both Freakonomics and The Skeptic's Guide - partly because I've been travelling less over the winter and partly because The Infinite Monkey has been on and Stephen Hawking's been doing the Reith Lectures. Is it a repeat of the one they did before?
     
  17. braineclipse

    braineclipse Gary Stevens

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    50:50 is about what the odds are at at the moment so not a huge difference...

    Was a very good episode on forecasting/predictions. Teams forecasting big international events and apparently crushing it compared to the people that get listened to in large US government organization.

    Both the Infinite Monkey and Reith Lectures have passed me by somehow. Will have to check those out.
     
  18. scaramanga

    scaramanga Mel Hopkins Staff Member

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    Typo - Infinite Monkey Cage
     
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  19. the dza

    the dza Christian Ziege

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    Obviously he'd have to beat Hilary first, but Sanders does poll well against Trump. I think a moderate Republican would probably beat Sanders in an election, but I think he would beat the ones with more extreme views.

    If the Republicans manage to nominate a more moderate, establishment candidate, then they will win the Presidency imo. But I don't think they will do that.
     
  20. glorygloryeze

    glorygloryeze Paul Walsh

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    Interesting...is there any reason you mention the bolded bit? (Perhaps i've missed something in the news about a bubling scandal in the last year or so..)
     

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