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Fourth - who are we going to beat to it?

Tsk tsk, haven't we heard something similar before? [-X
United are destined for CL glory now. If we get fourth.

ive just thought up the most horrific scenario.

imagine an arsenal vs. manu final in the ucl (where we have finished 4th in the league, and manu have finished outside top 4).

would we be hoping for an arsenal win? or even if arsenal lose, would we be able to really enjoy it?
 
ive just thought up the most horrific scenario.

imagine an arsenal vs. manu final in the ucl (where we have finished 4th in the league, and manu have finished outside top 4).

would we be hoping for an arsenal win? or even if arsenal lose, would we be able to really enjoy it?


get out
 
They have had the exact same amount of games played as us against the exact same teams. They have been better than us in terms of results and style of play. But why would they? We are a team that had a record points total last year, spent £100,000,000 on talent, yet Liverpool find themselves 2 points better off than us. I don't see this as Liverpool being **** or not on a good run just because we are 2 points behind them, if we were 2 points ahead then fair enough, but we are still BEHIND them. Like I said, if we were 2 points behind them on 38 games, why would it matter, they would have finished above us.

We've sacked our manager and they are 2 points ahead, despite having been able to chalk up a lovely run of form down to playing most of the fixtures they were most likely to win in the first half of the season.

Again, I will be well up for offering them praise should they actually finish ahead of us and make top 4. It will be a fantastic job. But you're pretty much arguing that home advantage doesn't exist and it simply does for most teams, unless you are Aston Villa. Certainly a team that likes to go on the attack and play at a quick tempo like they have done will be more likely to win their easier games than their harder ones.

They have chalked up a lot of points because they've won the games they are most likely to win. In the second half of the season, they won't have as many of those games where the likelihood of them winning is as high. Therefore I think it's incredibly likely that we can catch them up, and that they won't match their first half total. If they do, I will praise them no end. But I'd like to see the last few years' league tables and note down how many placings change between game 19 and game 38. I bet it's a heck of a lot, and the spread of fixtures certainly contributes to that.
 
I think the only change is that the EL winner will get into the CL without stealing someones place from the 2015/16 season.

Same change applies to CL winner too but, as you say, not for this season. Also max number of CL places will be 5 so if EL and CL winner both come from England and both finish outside top 4 the 4th placed team would not qualify for CL.
 
Same change applies to CL winner too but, as you say, not for this season. Also max number of CL places will be 5 so if EL and CL winner both come from England and both finish outside top 4 the 4th placed team would not qualify for CL.

Yay! A new first for us to achieve. 8-[
 
We've sacked our manager and they are 2 points ahead, despite having been able to chalk up a lovely run of form down to playing most of the fixtures they were most likely to win in the first half of the season.

Again, I will be well up for offering them praise should they actually finish ahead of us and make top 4. It will be a fantastic job. But you're pretty much arguing that home advantage doesn't exist and it simply does for most teams, unless you are Aston Villa. Certainly a team that likes to go on the attack and play at a quick tempo like they have done will be more likely to win their easier games than their harder ones.

They have chalked up a lot of points because they've won the games they are most likely to win. In the second half of the season, they won't have as many of those games where the likelihood of them winning is as high. Therefore I think it's incredibly likely that we can catch them up, and that they won't match their first half total. If they do, I will praise them no end. But I'd like to see the last few years' league tables and note down how many placings change between game 19 and game 38. I bet it's a heck of a lot, and the spread of fixtures certainly contributes to that.

First half of last season:

TeamPointsHomeAway
Man Utd462422
Emirates Marketing Project392316
Chelsea361917
Arsenal331716
Everton331914
Tottenham331815
West Brom332211
Stoke28199
Liverpool251510
Norwich25178
Swansea251411
West Ham23158
Sunderland221210
Fulham21147
Saudi Sportswashing Machine20164
Aston Villa18108
Southampton17125
Wigan1596
QPR1073
Reading1082

Second half of last season:

TeamPointsHomeAway
Man Utd432419
Arsenal402119
Chelsea392217
Emirates Marketing Project392217
Tottenham392019
Liverpool361818
Everton30237
Southampton241311
Aston Villa231013
West Ham23185
Fulham221012
Saudi Sportswashing Machine21129
Swansea21129
Wigan21912
Norwich19145
Reading18126
Sunderland17116
West Brom1697
QPR1578
Stoke1495

This is how everyone has done for the first half of this season compared to last season's matches against the same opponents (promoted teams compared to the corresponding relegated ones):

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Percentage of points taken at home vs away:

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And lastly, how this season would finish if everyone match last season's results for the remaining fixtures (**** finish 5th after losing away to Norwich in the last round):

t6hb.jpg
 
I would much rather my team's 'big' games in the second half of the season were at home. We saw with ourselves in 2009/10 how big an advantage that can be.

I think BoL that you are putting far too much faith in Sherwood. It's too early to say we are in the fight for 4th. I know that sounds ridiculous with us only being two points away from the position, but so many of our wins have been narrow ones having played ****. I'd be amazed if we can win as many games in the second half of the season playing as badly as we did in the first half. Even though we've been more creative under Tim we've continued to look dodgy as **** at the back - even more than we already did aside from three particular games (I won't mention them again!) - and I just cannot see how we can pick up lots of wins persisting with our 4-4-2 formation in most our games.

I'm not writing us off by any means, we're fortunate that Liverpool and Everton don't have clear daylight between themselves and us in all honesty - they have both played far better. But it's naive to say stuff like 'they can't keep it up, we can only get better' because there's every chance with the players returning from injury for Liverpool, as well as the rapid development of some of their younger players halfway through the season that they will continue to do well. Bet they have more money to spend than us in January too. If they spend it wisely then they will improve their team. As for Everton, people keep saying they will drop off but I don't see it unless one of Barkley/Lukaku gets a long-term injury. Their depth in most positions is actually okay compared to how people make it sound. If anything, they too may only get better as their players become more acclimatised to Martinez' system.

What about Man Utd - I presume no one's writing them out of the race for 4th just yet? I actually think we have a superior team than them in the defence and midfield positions. If we are to finish above them, however, we could do with Rooney or van Persie getting longer layoffs. They **** all over our strikers and will win them games they play badly in.

It's sure to be an enthralling race for 4th, but we need to be realistic and remember Sherwood could still go either way as a manager so I'd rather we waited to see where we are in March before declaring ourselves a genuine contender - that way, it's less pressure on the team and staff.

Mind you, http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish have us as being bigger favourites for 4th than Everton, so maybe it's a case of what do I know? :D
 
Much rather have a proper manager in charge. There is a big opportunity this season and can't help feeling AVB would be better at exploiting it than Sherwood over the course of 6 months.
 
Personally I'm not confident. Emirates Marketing Project... Woolwich... Liverpool are nailed on imo. That c**t Suarez Is just too good and Sturridge isn't shabby either. Never thought it would come too this but its looking like Man U are the weak link. Thy look lost. Van petsie will be off I'm the summer imo. We could have done them big time at there place. The space in midfield that game was insane.

Slightly off topic but did anyone see the faces on the board when the camera took a shot of Alex and the rest after the cup game:)
 
Much rather have a proper manager in charge. There is a big opportunity this season and can't help feeling AVB would be better at exploiting it than Sherwood over the course of 6 months.

I think avb hab lost the plot and a few more embarrassing drubbings were coming our way. Sherwood will do for me. Seen a lot worst in the last 30 years. Avb ruined coming to the lane IMO.
 
Cheers for that Jord, interesting stuff.

Furthers my confidence that often teams have different first halves of the season to second halves. I bet for other seasons it would be largely the same story too. Liverpool are going to have a tough time, and because expectations will have been raised, I reckon the pressure can get to them.
 
I would much rather my team's 'big' games in the second half of the season were at home. We saw with ourselves in 2009/10 how big an advantage that can be.

I think BoL that you are putting far too much faith in Sherwood. It's too early to say we are in the fight for 4th. I know that sounds ridiculous with us only being two points away from the position, but so many of our wins have been narrow ones having played ****. I'd be amazed if we can win as many games in the second half of the season playing as badly as we did in the first half. Even though we've been more creative under Tim we've continued to look dodgy as **** at the back - even more than we already did aside from three particular games (I won't mention them again!) - and I just cannot see how we can pick up lots of wins persisting with our 4-4-2 formation in most our games.

I'm not writing us off by any means, we're fortunate that Liverpool and Everton don't have clear daylight between themselves and us in all honesty - they have both played far better. But it's naive to say stuff like 'they can't keep it up, we can only get better' because there's every chance with the players returning from injury for Liverpool, as well as the rapid development of some of their younger players halfway through the season that they will continue to do well. Bet they have more money to spend than us in January too. If they spend it wisely then they will improve their team. As for Everton, people keep saying they will drop off but I don't see it unless one of Barkley/Lukaku gets a long-term injury. Their depth in most positions is actually okay compared to how people make it sound. If anything, they too may only get better as their players become more acclimatised to Martinez' system.

What about Man Utd - I presume no one's writing them out of the race for 4th just yet? I actually think we have a superior team than them in the defence and midfield positions. If we are to finish above them, however, we could do with Rooney or van Persie getting longer layoffs. They **** all over our strikers and will win them games they play badly in.

It's sure to be an enthralling race for 4th, but we need to be realistic and remember Sherwood could still go either way as a manager so I'd rather we waited to see where we are in March before declaring ourselves a genuine contender - that way, it's less pressure on the team and staff.

Mind you, http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish have us as being bigger favourites for 4th than Everton, so maybe it's a case of what do I know? :D

It's not so much faith in Sherwood, more faith in the fact that our squad is deep and filled with quality, to a greater extent than that of our rivals, combined with the fact that I think Sherwood is at the very least competent enough to manage them to a good level. It remains to be seen if he manages them to an excellent level and gets 4th - that would be a great achievement and I suspect he isn't going to get the job beyond this season if he doesn't come very very close to it at least - but I do think we are definitely in the race.

It's going to be tough, but we've got a lot of money to spend should we need to, we have a good squad and we have a manager that will at the very least play a style that we know is easily applied to the English game. That, combined with Jord's stats on first half vs seasons half of the season performance gives me confidence we will improve our position. It's easy to look at a team like Liverpool playing great football and picking up results and fearing that we can't match that, but then other teams were thinking the exact same thing in 11/12 backing us to be City's only serious title challengers, only for us to absolutely plummet. I will not be surprised in the slightest if it happens to Liverpool and Everton.
 
I'm more than happy to give shewood go. Top 4 imv will be if man u don't improve. I'm liking what i'm seeing do far even though its early days. The defence is shaky but avbs tactics could take a while to turn around.

I honestly know **** all really about tactics but I fancy things to click in a couple of months.
 
Looking back over the past 5 seasons, only Villa and ourselves have finished outside of the Top 4 after being there at the halfway stage of a league campaign... on the upside, we have the same number of points as we did at this stage in 09/10... :-k

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13
 
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Following this weekend's results, we remain level with ARSEnal and ahead of Emirates Marketing Project in like-for-like fixtures \o/ Fingers crossed we can level those head-to-head records during the run-in [-o<

FixtureSpursARSEnalChelseaEvertonLiverpoolMan_CityMan_Utd
Relative Pts / Goal Diff(n/a)(= / +12)(+1 / +7 )(+3 / +12)(+7 / +15)(-3 / +14)(= / +7 )
Palace (h)2-0 ?-? 2-1?-? 3-1 1-02-0
ManU (a)2-1 0-1 0-01-0 ?-? ?-?n/a
Stoke (h)3-0 3-1 ?-? 4-0 1-0 ?-?3-2
West Brom (h)1-1-2-20-04-1?-?1-2
Southampton (a)3-2?-?3-0?-??-?1-1?-?
Liverpool (h)0-52-02-13-3n/a2-1?-?
Sunderland (a)2-13-14-3?-?3-10-12-1
Fulham (a)2-13-1?-??-??-?4-23-1
Man Utd (h)2-2?-??-??-?1-04-1n/a
Emirates Marketing Project (a)0-63-6?-?1-31-2n/a1-4
Saudi Sportswashing Machine (h)0-1?-??-?3-2?-?4-00-1
Everton (a)0-0?-?0-1n/a3-3?-??-?
Hull (h)1-0?-?2-02-12-02-0?-?
Villa (a)2-02-1?-?2-01-02-33-0
West Ham (h)0-3?-??-??-?4-1?-?3-1
Chelsea (h)1-10-0n/a1-0?-??-?0-0
Cardiff (a)1-03-0?-?0-0?-?2-32-2
Norwich (h)2-04-1?-?2-05-17-0?-?
ARSEnal (a)0-1n/a0-01-10-2?-??-?
Swansea (h)1-0?-?1-0?-??-?3-02-0
Palace (a)1-02-0?-?0-0?-??-??-?
 
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Final table (top seven)

1st Emirates Marketing Project..........87pts

City's formidable home form proves the difference as they reclaim the title and Manuel Pellegrini celebrates his first season with the championship crown. They see out the season with a perfect home record, Chelsea the only one of their top-seven rivals still to visit the Etihad. Back-to-back away losses at Arsenal and Liverpool trigger fears of a late stutter, but they recover to confirm their title with a final-day victory over West Ham.


2nd Chelsea.........85pts

The Chelsea of old under Jose Mourinho shines through as the season draws to its close and they finish the campaign just two points shy of the champions. February's defeat at the Etihad proves costly, as does a late-season reverse at Liverpool, but they still take the race to the wire.

3rd Liverpool........82pts

The return of Daniel Sturridge, allied to Luis Suarez's unrelenting brilliance, sees the Reds win the next six, including victory in the Merseyside derby. A string of away draws curtails their title challenge but still they finish just five points adrift of the winners and claim third position ahead of Arsenal.

4th Arsenal...........81pts

With their squad stretched as the season gathers pace and European football returns, the Gunners' title aspirations fade. They do enjoy a home victory over Emirates Marketing Project and are beaten just twice - at Liverpool and Stoke - between now and the end of the season, but Arsene Wenger's wait for a fourth title is extended to at least 11 years.

5th Spurs..............70pts

The top four prove too strong for the other challengers and crucial defeats against rivals Emirates Marketing Project, Arsenal and Liverpool do for their Champions League ambitions. Still, though, Tim Sherwood's boys do enough to hold off Man Utd and Everton to take fifth position and Europa League qualification - they're sure to be thrilled with that...

6th Man Utd..........68pts

Inconsistency continues to plague United's title defence and the now customary defeat to their city adversaries sparks yet more talk of crisis for David Moyes. They do win the last three to take sixth position ahead of Everton, but will that be enough to earn Moyes another season at Old Trafford?

7th Everton...........67pts

Draws prove the Toffees' undoing as their failure to turn one point into three sees their Champions League hopes slip away. It's still a respectable return for Roberto Martinez in his first season at Goodison Park, although they are pipped to sixth by former boss Moyes.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2539135/With-Premier-Leagues-seven-winning-weekend-predict-season-play-reveal-new-champions.html

Click the link to see all the results as predicted by the Daily Mail.
 
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