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Transfer thread

Bedfordspurs said:
What are they not telling you?
I’m lost here as I’m putting up stats form the premier league site
Im not filtering or highlighting a certain stat (others are and I’m answering).
I’m not using twitter posts and articles either as I prefer to use the data available and my own opinions
As I’ve said he is a decent player but is that because of others around him or because of him. Similarly I’ve rarely noticed him

If you go back some weeks you will see I was impressed with skewered stats someone used for Holdberg until I did my win research.
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The point was, is the stats you have dug out adjusted pr. 90 minutes, and only for one position, or are they just total numbers?
If the latter, the stats are totally useless!

And no, you haven't won the research battle ;)
 
Modric THFC said:
This Hojbjerg saga will be a mess. Less than a year left on his contract and determined to go to Spurs. Levy has no money to spend.
Inevitable that it will go down to the last 2 days on transfer window. Thats 2 and half months away yet!
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Not sure I see it that way ..

- Player has said he wants to leave, and he wants to go to Spurs
- Only other club interested has clearly stated the player has no interest in going to them, so won't bid anymore
- Player has one year left on contract
- From all reports, they want KWP

Unless someone else comes in bigger than us that the player wants to go to .. very little risk for us, very little upside for them fudging around longer.

- They played a bluff, it failed, they will probably stall for a little to save face but best from here is for them to lock in KWP, get some cash and give themselves the most time to add to their squad.
 
braineclipse said:
No, you didn't mention playing time.

I do remember you saying that Ward Prowse made more tackles, referring to those stats. I have a much easier time having a conversion based on those stats than pure accumulation stats, I still don't understand if, or why, you disagree.

Not sure what to make of the headed duels. I have a very hard time thinking that Ward Prowse is actually better in the air than Hojbjerg, would guess it's a result of the different roles they have at set pieces and such. What do you think?

I'll say again that the stats for Ward Prowse are good, but for reasons outlined before I don't think he's a realistic target or a better fit for us.

I'll also repeat another previously mentioned point. Those stats say nothing about positioning, consentration and decision making.

There are many ways to play as a DM. I don't think judging a DM based on how many tackles, interceptions and duels they win alone makes sense. I think those numbers for both Hojbjerg and Ward Prowse are somewhere in the good, acceptable, not overwhelming category.

To me it's a box ticked for Hojbjerg. A player we're reportedly interested in, a player I think would be a good fit for other reasons. While some of the "filtered stats" seem to indicate that there's might be more interesting stats to look at.
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There's also the fact that Southampton usually play compact, and try to force the opposition out wide. This will naturally lead to the wide players, as Ward-Prowse, to be more involved. Stats are are fine, but there's always some other context behind them. Looking at stats can't be used by itself to assess a player.
 
Kandi1977 said:
There's also the fact that Southampton usually play compact, and try to force the opposition out wide. This will naturally lead to the wide players, as Ward-Prowse, to be more involved. Stats are are fine, but there's always some other context behind them. Looking at stats can't be used by itself to assess a player.
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You certainly want to try and use as clean a dataset as you can get and exclude data that could confuse the comparison. At the very least you would want to only use data on them playing in CM.
 
milo said:
You certainly want to try and use as clean a dataset as you can get and exclude data that could confuse the comparison. At the very least you would want to only use data on them playing in CM.
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There is probably too small a dataset to make it worthwhile but I'd be interested in seeing differences in their stats between playing together in CM and them on their own. Their roles as a partnership could also skew the data.
 
Kandi1977 said:
The point was, is the stats you have dug out adjusted pr. 90 minutes, and only for one position, or are they just total numbers?
If the latter, the stats are totally useless!

And no, you haven't won the research battle ;)
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I went and adjusted them for 90 minutes
It’s the premier league site and I did filter on midfielders so that may or may not answer that question
What their not is filtered, or created by some magic algorithm or generates or take off Twitter
And the adjusted ones still show JWP has better stats defensively than PEH
 
Kandi1977 said:
There's also the fact that Southampton usually play compact, and try to force the opposition out wide. This will naturally lead to the wide players, as Ward-Prowse, to be more involved. Stats are are fine, but there's always some other context behind them. Looking at stats can't be used by itself to assess a player.
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Ward Prowse isn’t a wide player
They have wide players who play wide
He is a CM who has played FB a few games
 
milo said:
There is probably too small a dataset to make it worthwhile but I'd be interested in seeing differences in their stats between playing together in CM and them on their own. Their roles as a partnership could also skew the data.
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Massively
One player could be doing all the work and the other cleans up
Kante is a classic example of the player who does the leg work of two men
 
milo said:
There is probably too small a dataset to make it worthwhile but I'd be interested in seeing differences in their stats between playing together in CM and them on their own. Their roles as a partnership could also skew the data.
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Southampton play a high press, I would expect this to impact on Ward-Prowse's stats as he would be the more advanced of the pair in most situations.
 
Bedfordspurs said:
So to clear it up
Ward prose misses 48.8%
Holdberg misses 39%
Is that 39% actually good ????
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I'm a bit late to the party, but weirdly 'tackles won' actually means a successful tackle that leads to your team regaining possession. So those percentages you give aren't missed tackles, they're successful tackles where the ball then rebounds to an opposing player.

Definitions from Opta's site:

A tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in a ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the player in possession.

• A tackle won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”.
• A tackle lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player.

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And to try and bring an end to some of the back and forth, here's some stats on the two players based on WhoScored data (all based just on PL):

upload_2020-7-22_12-43-4.png

So I think Bedford's point still stands about JWP being surpisingly an equally good ball-winner compared to Hojbjerg..

...As well as seemingly being much more effective in the final third too, and similar in deeper possession - taken from Understat (thanks @scaramanga), just CM performances in the PL this season:

upload_2020-7-22_12-48-27.png

Maybe Hojbjerg is better with defensive discipline and tracking runners, although my Saints-supporting mates say tracking runners can be one of his weaknesses...
 
Last edited:
elltrev said:
I'm a bit late to the party, but weirdly 'tackles won' actually means a successful tackle that leads to your team regaining possession. So those percentages you give aren't missed tackles, they're successful tackles where the ball then rebounds to an opposing player.

Definitions from Opta's site:

A tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in a ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the player in possession.

• A tackle won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”.
• A tackle lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player.

-------

And to try and bring an end to some of the back and forth, here's some stats on the two players based on WhoScored data (all based just on PL):

View attachment 9024

So I think Bedford's point still stands about JWP being surpisingly an equally good ball-winner compared to Hojbjerg..

...As well as seemingly being much more effective in the final third too, and similar in deeper possession - taken from Understat (thanks @scaramanga), just CM performances in the PL this season:

View attachment 9025

Maybe Hojbjerg is better with defensive discipline and tracking runners, although my Saints-supporting mates say tracking runners can be one of his weaknesses...
Click to expand...

it’s why I looked at the data
I wasn’t sat there thinking JWP is a DM machine
It was more than when I saw the data for Holdberg I wanted to compare it to his team mates
 
So is the James Ward-Prowse deal happening?

Be good to get it done early, so we have that deep lying midfield ball winner role sorted.
 
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