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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

So, there are 23 Tory MPs who have said they will not vote for May's deal if it comes up again (letter to The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion...ral-course-mps-wish-honour-referendum-result/

We believe that, if Britain leaves the European Union as planned on March 29, “no deal” will prove to be the precursor to a very good deal indeed.


At the time of the 2016 referendum, the choice was between leaving the EU (Brexit) and remaining within it. After remainers lost the referendum, they set up a new choice between “hard” and “soft” Brexit – in reality, between real departure and leaving in name only. Now, “hard/real” Brexit has been redefined as a “catastrophic no-deal Brexit” and purportedly removed from the table by a parliament of remainers who hold a country with a majority of Leavers in contempt.


Charles Moore concludes (Comment, March 16) that Brexiteers like us now face only the “two wretched options” of Brexit in name only or the indefinite postponement of any Brexit, and says that he does not envy our dilemma in choosing between them. Yet our moral course is clear: it is not our fault that we are confronted by two unacceptable choices, but it will be our fault if we cast a positive vote in favour of either for fear of the other.

Here are the names of the 23 Tories who signed the Telegraph letter: Adam Afriyie, Lucy Allan, Crispin Blunt, Peter Bone, Andrew Bridgen, Richard Drax, Mark Francois, Marcus Fysh, Chris Green, Adam Holloway, Philip Hollobone, Ranil Jayawardena, Andrea Jenkyns, David Jones, Dr Julian Lewis, Craig Mackinlay, Sheryll Murray, Owen Paterson, Sir John Redwood, Andrew Rosindell, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson and Anne-Marie Trevelyan.


__________

I'm not entirely sure where that leaves things for May, how many Labour minds she has to change (along with the DUP) to get it through, should she even choose to put her deal to a vote again.

I wonder how many (if any, but potentially from all sides) are planning on pushing it right to the wire, i.e. a potentially 4th vote? If a 3rd vote happens and fails, there would then be the EU summit between it and a 4th vote. Johnson himself has suggested that another vote is pointless without further negotiation with the EU, which even if there were to be any, won't happen before the summit. I wonder therefore if some are witholding support with this in mind?
 
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I wonder how many (if any, but potentially from all sides) are planning on pushing it right to the wire, i.e. a potentially 4th vote? If a 3rd vote happens and fails, there would then be the EU summit between it and a 4th vote. Johnson himself has suggested that another vote is pointless without further negotiation the EU, which even if there were to be any, won't happen before the summit. I wonder therefore if some are witholding support with this in mind?

May did say that if her deal didn't pass this week, she would go and ask the EU for a "long extension."
 
And even then the EU dont have to grant it. They have already said any request needs to be accompanied by a plan. And Im not sure "so we can go and do what we should have done these last two years..." counts.
 
Plenty have. I have.

2 years ago talk of a second referendum was preposterous.

Now, given a deal is not found, given the house is divided, given the parties are divided and we seem on course for not only not really leaving* but a decidedly worse result than was wanted - checking with the people if that is the desired outcome (or "what" is the desired outcome) doesnt seem unreasonable at all.



*I know you will like to argue technicalities on what constitutes leave, but pedantry aside you know exactly what I mean.

You might get a 2nd referendum, but I'm not sure it will ask the question you want it to ask. I'm thinking that if Parliament has rejected "no-deal" then the referendum question (should we actually get there) would be between a deal that Parliament has ratified and remain -- which is what the Kyle-Wilson amendment calls for and that is (probably) going to have the support of Labour.
 
And even then the EU dont have to grant it. They have already said any request needs to be accompanied by a plan. And Im not sure "so we can go and do what we should have done these last two years..." counts.

We could see a vote of confidence called in the government at that point and possibly another GE (which would be grounds for a long extension). Now there have been some noises from the ERG that some of them might be prepared to vote with Labour in a confidence motion against the government (I am guessing that a big delay to Brexit would be too much of a betrayal for some of them -- which is a kind of circular argument, I grant you).

We might finally be getting to the end of the beginning :D
 
May did say that if her deal didn't pass this week, she would go and ask the EU for a "long extension."

But that surely isn't a desired outcome for her. Sounds like a fairly weak attempt to paint a 3rd vote as a final chance, but then where did all the talk of a 4th vote come from...? I'd have thought a 3rd vote, with the gap closed further might then set up one final stab at getting some additional concessions from the EU at the summit, but that's pure speculation on my part of course.
 
You might get a 2nd referendum, but I'm not sure it will ask the question you want it to ask. I'm thinking that if Parliament has rejected "no-deal" then the referendum question (should we actually get there) would be between a deal that Parliament has ratified and remain -- which is what the Kyle-Wilson amendment calls for and that is (probably) going to have the support of Labour.

The first one was terribly worded so I wouldnt be surprised.

Point being, we have a negotiated deal with the EU. And we have the option to revoke. And the option to leave anyway with WTO terms. There is already plenty to choose from.

Parliament couldnt agree on the time of day, if there is a deal they do agree on itll be the softest most vanilla of brexit possible. Not really a choice at all, remain, or leave in name only...

Now THAT would be a betrayal, IMHO.

Thats really the difference - referendum now is actually a choice, later isnt. But, Corbyn and co will be hoping that by then they will have power which is really the priority for them. I wonder how his great reforms would work when the EU wont allow them and we have no voice in the club...
 
The first one was terribly worded so I wouldnt be surprised.

Point being, we have a negotiated deal with the EU. And we have the option to revoke. And the option to leave anyway with WTO terms. There is already plenty to choose from.

Parliament couldnt agree on the time of day, if there is a deal they do agree on itll be the softest most vanilla of brexit possible. Not really a choice at all, remain, or leave in name only...

Now THAT would be a betrayal, IMHO.


Thats really the difference - referendum now is actually a choice, later isnt. But, Corbyn and co will be hoping that by then they will have power which is really the priority for them. I wonder how his great reforms would work when the EU wont allow them and we have no voice in the club...

I agree with you on this, but I also agree with dza that any referendum were it to occur, will likely take this form. Which is why I strongly oppose it.
 
...Not really a choice at all, remain, or leave in name only...

Now THAT would be a betrayal, IMHO.

I think that if there is a 2nd referendum, this will likely be the choice. The EU on one side don't want WTO/no-deal/whatever label we want to give it. And our Parliament don't want it.

I think the only way that would change is if there is another General Election and the Tories have a leader who campaigns on a WTO Brexit, or makes an election promise of a 2nd referendum where WTO will be an option on the ballot.
 
We could see a vote of confidence called in the government at that point and possibly another GE (which would be grounds for a long extension). Now there have been some noises from the ERG that some of them might be prepared to vote with Labour in a confidence motion against the government (I am guessing that a big delay to Brexit would be too much of a betrayal for some of them -- which is a kind of circular argument, I grant you).

We might finally be getting to the end of the beginning :D

A long extension that we want because we couldnt organise a tinkle up in a brewery, Im no EU fan but they would be entirely justified in telling us to fudge off. Particularly as the expectation is that we will end up right where we are now anyway, minority government propped up by nutters and not enough clout to get anything through without the opposition being on board (which they wont).

More likely of course is they will just leverage it against us and put the screws on us as they have all the way through.

Its not the end of the beginning. Its a continuation of the beginning with no sign of actually getting anywhere. The car is revving like mad and making a load of noise but the bloody thing isnt in gear...

Tell me where Im wrong:

- Vote of no confidence
- General election
- Labour win with a minority
- Labour get in bed with SNP just as the Tories have DUP (with now the whole Scottish independence thing being back on the agenda - lots of fun in the not too distant...)
- Corbyn tried to negotiate a customs union whereby we get to have a say in EU trade policy and gets laughed out of town
- Ends up with a bastard awful deal, almost certainly BINO and also almost certainly compromising on FoM.
- This, unsurprisingly, isnt a popular option and where are we?
- Right back where we are now!
- EU now at the end of their tether asking what the actual fudge are we doing
- UK population sharing the sentiment

Utterly pointless

And I think I heard Farage say he's going to try and drum up a veto from within the EU...!

They wont. Despite popular belief they really do need us/our business.
 
But that surely isn't a desired outcome for her. Sounds like a fairly weak attempt to paint a 3rd vote as a final chance

I think you are probably right. But (from what I've just been reading anyway) she said that if her deal doesn't pass this week, she will seek a long extension from the EU and get Parliament to vote on that extension next week.

Just when you thought she had run out of road to kick the can...
 
I think you are probably right. But (from what I've just been reading anyway) she said that if her deal doesn't pass this week, she will seek a long extension from the EU and get Parliament to vote on that extension next week.

Just when you thought she had run out of road to kick the can...

She has also already said she wont be party leader for the next election hasnt she? Im wondering if she will do a Cameron and step down so someone else can pick up the pieces...
 
Tell me where Im wrong:

- Vote of no confidence
- General election
- Labour win with a minority
- Labour get in bed with SNP just as the Tories have DUP (with now the whole Scottish independence thing being back on the agenda - lots of fun in the not too distant...)
- Corbyn tried to negotiate a customs union whereby we get to have a say in EU trade policy and gets laughed out of town
- Ends up with a bastard awful deal, almost certainly BINO and also almost certainly compromising on FoM.
- This, unsurprisingly, isnt a popular option and where are we?
- Right back where we are now!
- EU now at the end of their tether asking what the actual fudge are we doing
- UK population sharing the sentiment

Ok, here's my stab at suggesting where you might be wrong (disclaimer, I have no phucking idea what I'm talking about, but I will take a guess):

No confidence vote, GE, Lab minority win
-- I'm good with that so far (shock, I know)

Labour have agreement with SNP as Tories do with DUP
-- I would differ here, slightly. Policy wise, there's nothing the SNP could/would/should really object to, there's lots of overlap between the SNP and Labour on general policies. They obviously want a 2nd referendum for independence, but they will only call one if there is appetite i.e if they think they can win. And the only way I see that happening is if Labour were to refuse a 2nd referendum/enable a hard brexit. Which doesn't seem to be on the agenda for Labour. And this bleeds into your next point

Corbyn tries to negotiate Labour deal, fails, we end up with Norway+ (he has been talking to the Norway+ MPs a lot recently about this): I think you are probably right, we'd end up in this position. It's likely that Labour would put the choice of this deal or remain back to the public. SNP are good with that, there is no reason for 2nd independence vote for them now either.

And from there we see what happens under a Labour government. If policies are good and work for "Labour leavers" in the heartlands, then they forgive over the EU. If things go to sh1t, Labour get buried at the next GE.

I actually have to go and do something useful for a minute, so if/when you reply I will have to respond later!
 
She has also already said she wont be party leader for the next election hasnt she? Im wondering if she will do a Cameron and step down so someone else can pick up the pieces...

I think it's very obvious that will happen after the local elections in May. The two prime candidates (Javid and Hunt) have been on massive manoeuvres over the past couple of weeks because they know it is coming.

The whole Begum citizenship revocation thing was Javid playing to Tory party members, while Hunt has been making no deal isn't so bad noises and comparing the EU to the USSR for the same reason.
 
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