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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

The people's vote campaign did not want to push for the vote on a PV at this time and instead preferred to focus on extending Article 50, Campbell and others said as much. I don't know why TIG pushed for it (well I do, to have a pop at Labour -- playing politics you might say). But the smarter ones in the PV campaign (like Campbell) felt it wasn't the right time.

IMO, for a PV to work, they need all other options to be dead. Then the numbers in Parliament work in favour. This is why I think Campbell (arch Blairite, hater of Corbyn, Alastair Campbell) said what he did.

The extension was covered the day before. What better way to go to the EU and beg an extension than to have a decisive plan in hand. One that can either force a majority in the house or make the whole thing go away altogether...

Why wasnt it the right time? Simple, they still want to play power games. Still want to try and get elected/keep power, instead of resolving the current crisis.
 
Why wasnt it the right time?

Because not enough Labour MPs support it. If you turned all the Labour abstentions into votes for a PV, it still would have lost. The thinking is, imo, that when the other options are exhausted, a PV becomes viable in terms of votes in the house. Alastair Campbell isn't interested in the wants of the Labour Leadership, none of the PV campaign are as far as I know. If their official campaign thought it was the wrong time, they must have had a reason beyond "But Corbyn is playing politics!"
 
Cool. Appreciate you outlining. The neat thing about doing this online is you can't offend. I wouldn't do this face to face - just wouldn't bother. Freindships, meetings with people are worth more than upsetting them. Here on this forum...we can go to another page...check how Trump's getting on....ignore me if I'm offending you. Its faceless, and hopefully painless, right?

So a couple of things: the EU is not forcing another referendum - where are you getting such drivel from? It aint true. It is made up.

What is fiscal and monetary union? We are not in the Euro - to state the obvious - and it doesn't look like we'd join. So I am sorry this is sadly made up too. What fiscal eu thing is on the horizon that you fear? Becuase I can not see it. If you can not outline it - it quite possibly does not exist. Is that fair to say?

Ever closer union - okay fair play the people who work in the EU are a bit EU-nutty. They want to make it more effective and they have said that. But and its a BIG BUT - the memeber nation states are not going to let their countries become less national as the EU does its work. If you could point to real actual things you did not like about the EU - not just policy jargon or ideas - that effect us day to day, then I'd take it seriously. If you can't outline things that effect you adversly, where the EU impairs our nation, what does that tell us!?

It does not matter if something is short term or long term, you have to be able to explain it or rationalise it, for it to be real. Just because people fear random undescribable things doesn't make the random undescribable thing true. We are not jumping off a sinking ship by leaving the EU - I know that is what leave had hoped - but the reality is since Brexit support for the EU in nations all over europe has sky rocketed by double digit points. Why? Because they are seeing how compromised the UK is. We are a laughing stock. Peoples who used to regard the UK as being rational, cool-headed, with a successful economy, a nation of innovators, purvayors or humor and great culture...other peoples are thinking what the fuk happened to them! What are this clever nation doing?

Let's leave this with one relatively simple question: if the UK is to lose things like completely free trade with 500m people in the EU, and 70 other free trade deals, plus little things like free phone roaming, reseach collaboration, clean beaches, saterlites, a forum to work with our neighbours etc. what will it gain back from Brexit that will make it better off in 10-20 years time?

If you can't outline - its not me being a cun1, although I admit I am being less than perfectly polite - it is because the benifits are not there. They are not there. I am not interested in winning an arguement, I simply want you to weight up the real issues while politicans are pussy footing around not calling it like it is. Brexit does not do what it says on the tin. In fact there is nothing in the flipping tin. It is a hollow waste of time that keep people like NIgel Farrage in a job, and it is harming the UK.

RIght. Done. As you were.

I don't get offended very easily so you can relax :)

By referendum forcing I was referring to the Lisbon treaty where if the answer isn't correct first time around then you guessed it keep trying till they get the required answer.

As for things I don't like about the EU I have already outlined some but here are some more

- Stability and growth pact and the bossing of it by France and Germany who decided it affects all countries apart from them
- EU mortgage credit directive (https://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/...-its-going-to-create-many-mortgage-prisoners/)
- Common agricultural policy
- Unaudited accounts
- I am in favour of migration but for some of the poorer EU countries there's a massive brain drain e.g. lots of doctors and dentists
- As I said fiscal union which has been mentioned in Juncker's state of the union speech previously where there is talk of aligning taxation rules, giving the EU power to veto budgets etc. It might sound far off but I believe that's the direction the EU will head in. I believe the ultimate aim of the EU is to move towards it being one giant federal system or something similar and I don't believe in that.
- Some of the trade deals aren't necessarily great e.g. the Japan deal has removed tariffs for exporting cars so there's no need to produce them in the EU now.
- I prefer the ability to set our own trade deals and balance the needs of the UK economy, the EU doesn't allow this due to the customs union
- State aid rules

As I say I'm not a no deal regardless of anything type person and was probably 70-30 for leave but there was a referendum, I voted out, leave won and I therefore expect to leave.
 
I know there will be some short term pain but I think once that can be overcome then there's genuine opportunities long term.

This trips so easily of the tongue.
It basically means I voted to leave and I hope it will be OK. I can see 'the pain' it's staring us in the face. Not sure the "opportunities" are so tangible.
 
Because not enough Labour MPs support it. If you turned all the Labour abstentions into votes for a PV, it still would have lost. The thinking is, imo, that when the other options are exhausted, a PV becomes viable in terms of votes in the house. Alastair Campbell isn't interested in the wants of the Labour Leadership, none of the PV campaign are as far as I know. If their official campaign thought it was the wrong time, they must have had a reason beyond "But Corbyn is playing politics!"

Labour told their MPs not to vote for it. It was a strategic choice, one made not in the interest of the UK but the Labour parties desire to gain power.
 
I don't get offended very easily so you can relax :)

By referendum forcing I was referring to the Lisbon treaty where if the answer isn't correct first time around then you guessed it keep trying till they get the required answer.

As for things I don't like about the EU I have already outlined some but here are some more

- Stability and growth pact and the bossing of it by France and Germany who decided it affects all countries apart from them
- EU mortgage credit directive (https://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/...-its-going-to-create-many-mortgage-prisoners/)
- Common agricultural policy
- Unaudited accounts
- I am in favour of migration but for some of the poorer EU countries there's a massive brain drain e.g. lots of doctors and dentists
- As I said fiscal union which has been mentioned in Juncker's state of the union speech previously where there is talk of aligning taxation rules, giving the EU power to veto budgets etc. It might sound far off but I believe that's the direction the EU will head in. I believe the ultimate aim of the EU is to move towards it being one giant federal system or something similar and I don't believe in that.
- Some of the trade deals aren't necessarily great e.g. the Japan deal has removed tariffs for exporting cars so there's no need to produce them in the EU now.
- I prefer the ability to set our own trade deals and balance the needs of the UK economy, the EU doesn't allow this due to the customs union
- State aid rules

As I say I'm not a no deal regardless of anything type person and was probably 70-30 for leave but there was a referendum, I voted out, leave won and I therefore expect to leave.

You are refering to Ireland holding 2 referendum on the treaty? We didn't have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. Only Ireland did, and they choose to run it again - not the EU. Is it factually correct to state the EU ran it again? To me that's misinformation.

I don't know what the stability and growth pact is. But stability and growth sounds a good thing, why wouldn't you want that? How does it effect you day to day?

Re. Mortgages I am guessing this is something that has occured globally post credit crunch. If you recall the global financial industry collapsed because banks were lending to anyone regardless of whether they could pay back the money. We entered Austerity becuase of this, meaning nurses and teachers have barely had a pay rise for 10 years (with inflation their pay has actually gone down). The UK have taken steps to ensure this does not occur again with our own UK laws. The EU have too. That is good thing is it not? Maybe the laws need refining further, but if that is the best you can find - the only example of how the EU affects you or the UK in a day to day sense - then that is pretty weak. I'm not biased in saying that am I? It's far from overiding evidence that the EU holds us back is it?

We wouldn't prefer a credit crunch every couple of decades. Responsible government that ensures fiancial stability has to be good thing. Remember fiancial systems are global. The UK could legislate, but others in the US, Europe can still bring about ruin with improper financial practice. EU directives are without doubt useful for things that don't respect national boarders - such as finance. How could the UK ensure their own dilligence is not udermined by others without things like the EU? This is the same for pollution. How can a UK factory spend money on cleaning up emissions if Spanish ones are not, and producing their goods cheaper? Hopefully you can see that for issues that don't respect boarders - flows of money, air pollution - the Eu has a role to play?

CAP is in need of reform, however, farmers need some protection otherwise we would lose our famring industries. During WWII we found out we did not produce some things in the UK and we could not improt them due to the war. That is why there is the CAP - to protect local national farming. The premise of local food production is a good one - environmentally we should get local food rather than import it.

So migration is not an issue for you. Flagging up clever people coming to the UK is an arguement for remain then, an area you think is a postive for the UK? We take other peoples clever folkes to help us.

There are Federalists in the EU, but look around european nations, who would allow a federal EU? Its a type of project fear to suggest it would happen. We have a veto, others have a veto, most EU nations have strong national movements, and they don't want it. There will always be a tension between the EU executive who want to be able to get more done by nations being more alligned and member states who want to maintain their own control. It is a healthy tension as we end up with only the useful and essential within the EU remit on the whole. Things like polution, phone roaming etc. make it into the eu remit because it makes sense. But will we ever see a united states of Europe? Never. Its impossible. We have such distrinct languages and cultures. Even if everyone wanted it, it would be impossible to achieve.

Had the UK been part of the EU movement over the past 2 years, we could have influenced the Japan trade deal so we didn't lose production overnight. However the deal is potentially worth trillions to the UK in goods we could now sell to Japan from within the EU. Its about comromise and representation. If we had been at the table we could have had both - protected UK jobs, and increased trade to Japan. I think if there wasn't Brexit on the horizon these Japanese firms would have moved a lot slower with the car production to Japan. Brexit sped it up for them.

You have one example about mortgages - is that affecting you personally? Otherwise you're very light on examples. State aid rules and the EU are a misnomer. The French government part-own Renult, all of their railways, part of phone comapnies like Orange etc

So the only example of how the EU negatively impacts us day to day is mortgage lending? And this may or may not effect you. I'm sold.
 
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Labour told their MPs not to vote for it. It was a strategic choice, one made not in the interest of the UK but the Labour parties desire to gain power.

True, the choice was strategic -- but if they told MPs to vote for it, turning the abstentions to votes for, the vote would still have failed due to Labour MPs who currently choose to vote against (they voted against despite the position being abstain, so they'd certainly vote against if the position was to vote for). The outcome at the moment is the same. Strategy is important -- which is why I bring up Alastair Campbell, who has no desire to see a Corbyn government, agreeing with the choice not to vote for a PV at that time.

Just like in the Tory Party there are MPs who will vote their way despite their leader's position.

It seems very likely that Labour will back an amendment that puts whatever deal gets through Parliament to a public vote.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/17/compromise-brexit-deal-phil-wilson-peter-kyle?

Nobody is more passionate about giving the people the final say on Brexit than us. But last Thursday’s votes were never going to be the right moment to test parliamentary support; and the amendment tabled by the Independent Group of MPs was, we’re sorry to say, more about scoring political points than anything else.

We are two Labour MPs, one from the north and one from the south, who have come together to try to help parliament and the country to find a way out of this mess. We have spent weeks talking to MPs, both Labour and Conservative, about whether a compromise solution can be found that can satisfy those who say they must honour the result of the last referendum, and those who are desperately worried about crashing out with no deal, as well as all of us who believe there is an overwhelming democratic case for putting this vexed issue back to the people.

Our plan would mean MPs voting for some form of Brexit deal conditional on it being confirmed by the people of the United Kingdom in a new referendum. On the ballot paper would be a straight choice: a real form of Brexit – rather than some fantasy idea that cannot be delivered – which could be debated, warts and all, against the proposition of staying in the EU.

We would not be asking MPs to vote for Brexit but to withhold support for any deal until the public has had their say in a confirmatory ballot. We would be taking the prospect of no deal off the table forever. And we would be giving pro-Brexit MPs who talk so much about the “will of the people” the chance to check back in with those same people.
 
Of course May and her Tories are not playing politics at all....hhhmmmm.

Of course they are, Im not sure what you are trying to point out? Or is this just a quick jibe because its impossible to be impartial?

True, the choice was strategic -- but if they told MPs to vote for it, turning the abstentions to votes for, the vote would still have failed due to Labour MPs who currently choose to vote against (they voted against despite the position being abstain, so they'd certainly vote against if the position was to vote for). The outcome at the moment is the same. Strategy is important -- which is why I bring up Alastair Campbell, who has no desire to see a Corbyn government, agreeing with the choice not to vote for a PV at that time.

Just like in the Tory Party there are MPs who will vote their way despite their leader's position.

It seems very likely that Labour will back an amendment that puts whatever deal gets through Parliament to a public vote.

If Corbyn backed it, said now was the time to force change and wanted the party to support - they would have all voted against anyway? Are you sure?

I couldnt give a toss what Campbell has to say, its proof of nothing other than his own agenda aligning with Corbyns. And who knows what that clam is really looking for.

Corbyn wants power, thats what this is about, and he is willing to drag the UK through turmoil to get it. He's basically another BoJo in that respect.

WHY is now not the time? Why is it not literally ideal to actually do something to break the deadlock instead of doing the same dance that gets us nowhere?

Gamesmanship, simple as that.
 
So, there are 23 Tory MPs who have said they will not vote for May's deal if it comes up again (letter to The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion...ral-course-mps-wish-honour-referendum-result/

We believe that, if Britain leaves the European Union as planned on March 29, “no deal” will prove to be the precursor to a very good deal indeed.


At the time of the 2016 referendum, the choice was between leaving the EU (Brexit) and remaining within it. After remainers lost the referendum, they set up a new choice between “hard” and “soft” Brexit – in reality, between real departure and leaving in name only. Now, “hard/real” Brexit has been redefined as a “catastrophic no-deal Brexit” and purportedly removed from the table by a parliament of remainers who hold a country with a majority of Leavers in contempt.


Charles Moore concludes (Comment, March 16) that Brexiteers like us now face only the “two wretched options” of Brexit in name only or the indefinite postponement of any Brexit, and says that he does not envy our dilemma in choosing between them. Yet our moral course is clear: it is not our fault that we are confronted by two unacceptable choices, but it will be our fault if we cast a positive vote in favour of either for fear of the other.

Here are the names of the 23 Tories who signed the Telegraph letter: Adam Afriyie, Lucy Allan, Crispin Blunt, Peter Bone, Andrew Bridgen, Richard Drax, Mark Francois, Marcus Fysh, Chris Green, Adam Holloway, Philip Hollobone, Ranil Jayawardena, Andrea Jenkyns, David Jones, Dr Julian Lewis, Craig Mackinlay, Sheryll Murray, Owen Paterson, Sir John Redwood, Andrew Rosindell, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson and Anne-Marie Trevelyan.


__________

I'm not entirely sure where that leaves things for May, how many Labour minds she has to change (along with the DUP) to get it through, should she even choose to put her deal to a vote again.
 
If Corbyn backed it, said now was the time to force change and wanted the party to support - they would have all voted against anyway? Are you sure?

Yes. That's why I kept bringing up Campbell and what he said on the subject. Those MPs are not yet in the position they need to be in to change their mind re. a PV (he specifically mentioned Caroline Flint). Labour only whipped to abstain and they still voted against -- they could have obeyed the whip and abstained and still got the same result, but they want to show their constituents that they are not interested in a PV. And the official PV campaign acknowledged this, which is why they were against the vote being called at that time as well, and they aren't looking to get into number 10. IMO, they (as in the PV campaign) are waiting for the options to dwindle down to the point where enough MPs who are currently against it will change their mind.

And as I posted subsequently, the Labour leadership look like they will back the Kyle-Wilson amendment which will result in any deal agreed by Parliament being put back to the people for another vote.
 
Maybe. I dont buy it, and I think if Labour really were what they are selling they wouldnt be playing these games.

Says a lot, about the state of the party IMO, that the leadership cant get everyone on the same page.

The Tories are an utter mess, completely split, and even then - Labour arent looking better, are they?

Seen Labour supporters here expecting if there were a GE a minority win, damning really.

And yet - Corbyn could win support from all over the country by being decisive and offering to hear the people. He could be hailed for breaking the deadlock - and would walk any consequent election with a nice majority to then set about the nationalisation program etc he wants.

But he chooses not to, he is as dogmatic about "beating" May as she is about her deal or no deal.

His deal is BS, its no better than hers and needs a fair wind to even begin to get off the ground. Why keep banging the drum on it when he can instantly become "the man of the people" and, with a little patience, walk into the job he wants with ease.
 
But he chooses not to, he is as dogmatic about "beating" May as she is about her deal or no deal.

His deal is BS, its no better than hers and needs a fair wind to even begin to get off the ground. Why keep banging the drum on it when he can instantly become "the man of the people" and, with a little patience, walk into the job he wants with ease.

That seems to be a contradiction -- his main concern is beating May but he won't do the thing that would allow him to do so with ease?

In my honest opinion, if a 2nd ref would guarantee Labour getting into power, I think McDonnell would push Corbyn into backing it. Brexit is just an unbelievably divisive issue, it seems the main political parties are scrambling to come out of it with less damage than the other, whilst in the meantime, blaming someone else for soft-brexit/2nd referendum/long delay etc.

Hopefully, we are near the start of some kind of resolution to it now. Inch by inch.
 
That seems to be a contradiction -- his main concern is beating May but he won't do the thing that would allow him to do so with ease?

In my honest opinion, if a 2nd ref would guarantee Labour getting into power, I think McDonnell would push Corbyn into backing it. Brexit is just an unbelievably divisive issue, it seems the main political parties are scrambling to come out of it with less damage than the other, whilst in the meantime, blaming someone else for soft-brexit/2nd referendum/long delay etc.

Hopefully, we are near the start of some kind of resolution to it now. Inch by inch.

He is so consumed by playing politics, so fixated on beating May, pushing his "more credible" (I laugh when he says that) deal, and pushing for a GE that even Labour supporters anticipate will result in a minority (and then being beholden to the SNP nutters) that he cant see the bigger picture.

In a time when every politician is seen as a clam, justifiably, when every party is seen as untrustworthy and divided, and when the people are sick to death of all of them - Corbyn could present himself as different.

As being the man to put party politics aside because he actually cares about the people, being the man to break the deadlock in the house, being the man to let the people have their say...

Now, tell me, next election - who would walk it in that situation?
 
I don't know how choosing not to go back a second referendum is now "hearing the people", it wont be seen as breaking the deadlock but ignoring the first vote.

I want a second referendum but if you believed a second referendum was undemocratic 2 years ago I doubt many would have changed their mind.
 
I don't know how choosing not to go back a second referendum is now "hearing the people", it wont be seen as breaking the deadlock but ignoring the first vote.

I want a second referendum but if you believed a second referendum was undemocratic 2 years ago I doubt many would have changed their mind.

Plenty have. I have.

2 years ago talk of a second referendum was preposterous.

Now, given a deal is not found, given the house is divided, given the parties are divided and we seem on course for not only not really leaving* but a decidedly worse result than was wanted - checking with the people if that is the desired outcome (or "what" is the desired outcome) doesnt seem unreasonable at all.



*I know you will like to argue technicalities on what constitutes leave, but pedantry aside you know exactly what I mean.
 
Plenty have. I have.

2 years ago talk of a second referendum was preposterous.

Now, given a deal is not found, given the house is divided, given the parties are divided and we seem on course for not only not really leaving* but a decidedly worse result than was wanted - checking with the people if that is the desired outcome (or "what" is the desired outcome) doesnt seem unreasonable at all.



*I know you will like to argue technicalities on what constitutes leave, but pedantry aside you know exactly what I mean.
In my experience you are in the minority, the loudest voices at least still see a second as anti-democratic. Pushing for a second referendum will be positioned as an attack on democracy in the main. I cant see a situation, other than the people who support him anyway, where he will be seen as trustworthy by pushing for another vote.

I think he is not pushing for a second because he thinks BREXIT is good for the country, his version that he thinks he could get through parliament given the opportunity (*not wanting to open up if it is Leave or not). Don't get me wrong I think there needs to be a second referendum but if and when he does I doubt it will be seen as the way you describe.
 
In my experience you are in the minority, the loudest voices at least still see a second as anti-democratic. Pushing for a second referendum will be positioned as an attack on democracy in the main. I cant see a situation, other than the people who support him anyway, where he will be seen as trustworthy by pushing for another vote.

I think he is not pushing for a second because he thinks BREXIT is good for the country, his version that he thinks he could get through parliament given the opportunity (*not wanting to open up if it is Leave or not). Don't get me wrong I think there needs to be a second referendum but if and when he does I doubt it will be seen as the way you describe.

And your experience is? Mine is otherwise. Its the nature of these things.

The rest is PR.
 
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