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Politics, politics, politics

r-u-s-x said:
Would they necessarily need Labour votes though (they will get a few with Norway option).
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I think so. They won't get the DUP, that's for certain. I think they'd lose the most hard line ERG lot too, although their numbers are dwindling.
 
Hello, you citizens of the British Empire.
Although, I have the right of abode in the UK, I have never used it.
I have always preferred to work and stay in other more lucrative parts of the world.
And upon retirement, I have decided that warm weather, lower cost of living and
a better quality of life is what I need.
On the other hand, my daughter works for the UK Home Office, and my son is an
attorney in a big US legal firm in Boston, USA. He may move to the UK in the future.
However, I have been following the mess of Brexit on the Sky, BBC, CNN etc. networks.

What I don't understand is this issue of a BACKSTOP, which seems to be creating some problems.
What exactly does that mean, and why is it such an issue.

And, I must apologize that I have not read or followed this very active thread for a loooong time.
Thank you.
Greetings from the beach in the Tropics.
 
Kenyan Spur said:
Hello, you citizens of the British Empire.
Although, I have the right of abode in the UK, I have never used it.
I have always preferred to work and stay in other more lucrative parts of the world.
And upon retirement, I have decided that warm weather, lower cost of living and
a better quality of life is what I need.
On the other hand, my daughter works for the UK Home Office, and my son is an
attorney in a big US legal firm in Boston, USA. He may move to the UK in the future.
However, I have been following the mess of Brexit on the Sky, BBC, CNN etc. networks.

What I don't understand is this issue of a BACKSTOP, which seems to be creating some problems.
What exactly does that mean, and why is it such an issue.

And, I must apologize that I have not read or followed this very active thread for a loooong time.
Thank you.
Greetings from the beach in the Tropics.
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Ohers my correct me, but I think it means that if the UK and EU can't agree a future free trade deal, the UK stays in the EU customs union and abides by EU laws indefinitely. This is to protect Ireland who will remain an EU member, and doesn't want to see a hard boarder. The backstop was the governments idea to deal with the problem of being outside the EU customs union, but having a member nation of the EU in Ireland. How can you be seperate to the EU, but have no border in Ireland?
 
Kenyan Spur said:
Hello, you citizens of the British Empire.
Although, I have the right of abode in the UK, I have never used it.
I have always preferred to work and stay in other more lucrative parts of the world.
And upon retirement, I have decided that warm weather, lower cost of living and
a better quality of life is what I need.
On the other hand, my daughter works for the UK Home Office, and my son is an
attorney in a big US legal firm in Boston, USA. He may move to the UK in the future.
However, I have been following the mess of Brexit on the Sky, BBC, CNN etc. networks.

What I don't understand is this issue of a BACKSTOP, which seems to be creating some problems.
What exactly does that mean, and why is it such an issue.

And, I must apologize that I have not read or followed this very active thread for a loooong time.
Thank you.
Greetings from the beach in the Tropics.
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If your daughter works for the Home Office, she might be better placed to explain the backstop to you?
 
SpurMeUp said:
Were you happy with Mays deal?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Wasn't a great deal but I am a leaver so I would take No deal.

The point is that after leave was vote the remain campaign has caused No Deal to become a strong reality due to their push to sabotage any kind of leave regardless of Mays recent deal, its been in the making for years.

Only have themselves to blame on it when they moan because its as much their fault for not accepting the outcome of the vote, they had the chance to enter into dialogue on the whole thing but there was this "leave over my dead body" which has come back to bite them.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Wasn't a great deal but I am a leaver so I would take No deal.

The point is that after leave was vote the remain campaign has caused No Deal to become a strong reality due to their push to sabotage any kind of leave regardless of Mays recent deal, its been in the making for years.

Only have themselves to blame on it when they moan because its as much their fault for not accepting the outcome of the vote, they had the chance to enter into dialogue on the whole thing but there was this "leave over my dead body" which has come back to bite them.
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The fact that the staunch Leaver MPs didn't vote for the deal either suggests it wasn't a good deal for the nation (which you agree with). Why would MPs vote for something that "wasn't a great deal" as you put it!?

You could be right that not signing up to bad deal for the UK has created more likihood of a No Deal exit, but I've got a feeling you are going to be disapointed. Why? Becuase those in power, in a ratio of say 9:1 think a no deal exit would be devasating for the UK. Therefore they won't let it happen, therefore you'd be wrong, that voting down this deal will lead to a no deal exit. I know you want to stick one to the establishment, but it aint going to happen is it? If you think it through rationally.

What is it that attracts you to a no deal exit anyway? What advantages for you yourself or the UK do you envisage?
 
Thing about the deal (apart from the backstop) is that it only covers 20 months or so, after that everything is up for play including a hard brexit of softer version with a permanent customs union. I don't like the backstop but don't believe the EU would deliberately want to keep us in it, after all we wouldn't pay for access to it yet get the benefits of it (well NI would). I do think they could put some tests in place which are audited by some form of international panel to guarantee an exit from it or something like that. I think that might then get through

The problem with Norway is that it will have a hard border like Norway does with Sweden for instance, that's why people want Norway + which then involves a permanent customs union but then we just have to accept all the EU rules. I think it would get a majority vote in parliament but that's mainly because parliament are probably 70-30 in favour of remain in general.
 
Kenyan Spur said:
What I don't understand is this issue of a BACKSTOP, which seems to be creating some problems.
What exactly does that mean, and why is it such an issue.
Click to expand...
The backstop is an arrangement designed to stop a hard border being necessary in Ireland. The reasons for this as you probably know is that a hard border would almost certainly escalate tensions between nationalist and unionist communities, and this would likely have disastrous consequences. It would set the peace process into reverse in the province.


One way to avoid having a hard border is to keep NI in the EU customs union, among other things. You wouldn't need a hard border then. So the EU decided to offer NI the golden ticket of being both in the EU customs union and the UK union. A foot in both camps basically. This was a major concession on the behalf of the EU would have meant huge amounts of inward investment for NI.

But the fly in the ointment is the DUP. They have found themselves in a key negotiating position because their votes are needed to prop up the government, and they said no to this idea (and most things) as they think it will be another small step towards a united Ireland. The sum of all their fears really. The DUP got this golden ticket and ripped it up, much against the wishes of the business community and the majority opinion of NI people.

IMO this will come back to bite them in the ass hard. If wealth was pouring into NI as a result of this dual arrangement then there would be little appetite to rock the boat with say an attempt to reunite Ireland at some point. However, if their intransigence results in a hard Brexit this will trip a border poll. The numbers I've seen for this poll is that 60+% will then vote to leave the UK and reunite with Ireland. The DUP will have effectively caused Ireland to reunite. You'll probably see Scotland jumping ship from the UK too if this happens.
 
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So rather than seek resolution to the Brexit mess via the people, May's way out is to call an Election? Havn't we had enough recently? I can't see it solving anything either. We'll still have the same issue: a Brexit that is benificial to the UK is impossible to deliver. Until we address that monkey, we're skirting around the issue imo.
 
There are so many avenues to go down, and many, for one reason or another end up in dead ends. Either it doesn't suit one group or another or legally doesn't stack up, or, due to the divides, wouldn't have enough support. It's a directionless mess.

We have ended up basically where we should have started in the first place (check my posts yonks back), with cross party cooperation and discussion (well I know jezza ain't too keen). This is a social/commercial/national decision, not a political one. The best heads and minds from the leave camp from across the parties should have formed a cabinet (for want of a better word) to deal with the process from the get go.

So much party bitching, self interest, and career planning has clouded, what is an extremely difficult process and at best just eaten into and wasted the time we've had to negotiate a good deal for us lot (don't forget us lot FFS).

Just thinking further back for a bit. It's safe to say that if we could control movement of people and still have free trade with the EU, we'd sow a deal up in 5 mins. Of course this is cake and eat it territory.If has been suggested, immigration was a big driver of people voting leave, why couldn't the EU (being the helpful big friendly club like it is) on the suggestion we have a (perceived or otherwise) problem with immigration and it could cause us to leave, give us a concession of say 3/5 years to control immigration to get it organised and to a level we are happy with. (If it ever was a problem in the first place).

I thought that's what clubs did, helped out members when issues arise that could otherwise escalate and unnecessarily undermine the whole ideology/project/ego trip.......
 
galeforce said:
A GE will solve nothing, there is equal division in the Labour Party.
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It depends on what problem is looking to get solved. Why would May call an election?

1. May thinks she can get a working majority and not need DUP votes anymore. This seems unlikely and she's already had her fingers burnt at the last election along similar lines.

2. May thinks that whatever resolution she reaches now re. Brexit will split and damage the Tory Party. So call an election, lose it, lose power but save the Tory Party from any irrevocable damage.

Who knows with her and her advisors though? They got 2017 spectacularly wrong and it's been a slow-motion car crash since that point.
 
the dza said:
It depends on what problem is looking to get solved. Why would May call an election?

1. May thinks she can get a working majority and not need DUP votes anymore. This seems unlikely and she's already had her fingers burnt at the last election along similar lines.

2. May thinks that whatever resolution she reaches now re. Brexit will split and damage the Tory Party. So call an election, lose it, lose power but save the Tory Party from any irrevocable damage.

Who knows with her and her advisors though? They got 2017 spectacularly wrong and it's been a slow-motion car crash since that point.
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I think mostly option 2, although I also think a split is inevitable now, the same is true of labour.
 
galeforce said:
A GE will solve nothing, there is equal division in the Labour Party.
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Ive been saying for a while, a GE offers each party the chance to pin their version of Brexit to the manifesto and come into power with a mandate to carry it out.

Could well see the Tories ending up with "out is out", Labour "Soft Brexit" and the lib dems "no Brexit".

Its an unofficial referendum!
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Ive been saying for a while, a GE offers each party the chance to pin their version of Brexit to the manifesto and come into power with a mandate to carry it out.

Could well see the Tories ending up with "out is out", Labour "Soft Brexit" and the lib dems "no Brexit".

Its an unofficial referendum!
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I don’t think either the Tory or Labour Party can reach a concensus in their membership for such a simple message.

The LD’s (sadly) won’t be a factor, not because of the message, but because it’s them delivering it.
 
The sensible thing would be to hold a referendum and a general election simultaneously, allowing the parties to go to the country without having to declare a Brexit strategy. Might even be a majority for that in the HOC.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
The sensible thing would be to hold a referendum and a general election simultaneously, allowing the parties to go to the country without having to declare a Brexit strategy. Might even be a majority for that in the HOC.
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Not advised by the electoral commission as it confuses voters, not needed anyway as the manifesto would effectively be the referendum.

I think it would be a hung parliament anyway if there was another election.
 
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