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Coronavirus

Lilbaz said:
We know it's going to be massively high infection rate.
Maybe not as high as predictions go though.

Cases are less important these days. It's hospitalisations. Or more importantly the increase in the amount of people in hospital all causes.
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More cases mean more hospitalizations.
 
I don't think anyone can say with confidence that it is going to be milder. We can only speculate. But policy has to be safety first. Otherwise needless lives are lost.
 
The government’s SPI-M-O group of scientists, which reports to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also warned that, based on their modelling, hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths at between 600 and 6,000 a day
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I know there's a lot of variables and unknows with Omicron but surely in this day and age we can get a little more accurate than this.
 
LutonSpurs said:
I don't think anyone can say with confidence that it is going to be milder. We can only speculate. But policy has to be safety first. Otherwise needless lives are lost.
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For every variant? There will be another in a couple of months, and a couple of months after that..

I thought we were going to have to learn to live with it?
 
I've lost family and friends to covid. I understand what will happen if the health service is overwhelmed.

BUT we still have to live our lives. The economy can't shut down every couple of months.

This is not the same as feb/march 2020. The majority of us have been vaccinated, those that haven't have been exposed.

We have to learn to live with it.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Based on worse case scenario I get this however based on current infection levels versus hospitalisation and deaths we are clearly seeing a variant that is alot more milder. Comparable numbers previously on the infection numbers would have seen deaths in the 1000s which we are just not seeing. Its early says yeh I agree but there isnt anything to say this is going south anytime soon
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Omicron hasn’t been about here for long enough yet for us to have a decent idea on deaths. We’ll probably know a bit more about hospitalisations in a week or two. The idea now is to try to avoid this ripping through the whole population in a very small space of time due to the risk of overwhelming the NHS (from staff isolation as well as/instead of COVID admissions).
 
Finney Is Back said:
Been taken on pretty well from what I saw in the City late last week.
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London is always a bit different I think because of the commutes.

My observations were that people maybe avoided public transport, but roads were slightly busier (in compensation) and workplaces were about the same as they have been for the last few months. Next week will be different I guess because schools are done, but that's always like that this last week.
 
Lilbaz said:
We know that antibodies wane over time.

We know that the risk of severe illness and death (on average) doubles every 7 years older than 18.

We have given boosters to the over 50's and most of the over 40's.

A 2 week circuit breaker, won't stop people getting infected. It just might delay their infection by a couple of weeks.

Yes it might reduce pressure on the health service, if they can't provide care for everyone at that time. But it will flare up again with the vulnersble more vulnerable. Putting even more stress on the health service.
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No it won't put more stress on the health service, because the risk measure is lots of people all needing hospital treatment in a shorter timespan than previously.
The likelihood is small; but the impact high. Which is why a two week circuit breaker to get vaccinations makes sense.
The two weeks is about getting more jabs in and reducing spread and likelihood of hospital admissions until a suitable level of jabs is done.
And is even more important after a high mixing period like Xmas.
 
Finney Is Back said:
Omicron hasn’t been about here for long enough yet for us to have a decent idea on deaths. We’ll probably know a bit more about hospitalisations in a week or two. The idea now is to try to avoid this ripping through the whole population in a very small space of time due to the risk of overwhelming the NHS (from staff isolation as well as/instead of COVID admissions).
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But it is ripping through the population in a very small space of time. At least thats what the models say. Is that reality though.

The models say we should be what 500k a day by now? Which may be true, but the symptom study isn't seeing it. They are seeing an increase. The daily testing isn't seeing it. Again seeing a jump.

Hopefully, it is happening, but it's asymtomatic
 
monkeybarry said:
No it won't put more stress on the health service, because the risk measure is lots of people all needing hospital treatment in a shorter timespan than previously.
The likelihood is small; but the impact high. Which is why a two week circuit breaker to get vaccinations makes sense.
The two weeks is about getting more jabs in and reducing spread and likelihood of hospital admissions until a suitable level of jabs is done.
And is even more important after a high mixing period like Xmas.
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What is a suitable level of jabs?

We opened up in july because we the over 55s and vulnerable (comorbidities) had been jabbed and had the 2 weeks to take effect.

They (and more) have had their boosters.

The risk of severe illness outside those groups is low, even lower if they have had 2 jabs or prior infection.

This is as good as it's going to get.
 
Also if you look at that graph. I think everyone over 18 should get vaccinated. But if i was a 20 year old footballer i might be selfish and think twice.
 
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