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Coronavirus

ricky2tricky4city said:
The whole essence of track and trace is to get ahead of the virus.

In the first instance when person A catches it you are behind the virus. The speed at which you test and obtain a result for person A, trace and contact person B,C,D,E.....for example, and test and obtain a result for B,C,D,E....all vital to get from backward looking to ahead of the game.

I dont think it would be that difficult to analyse each of those elements and model it out as to predict that if certain timeframes arent being met we are quite simply 'wasting our time'
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That is precisely why I am not keen to sign up to any track n trace, whether the official app or a local pub.
If I go to a pub at noon and sit outside and don't have contact with anyone and wear a mask and leave at 1. Then at 3pm someone else visits the pub and has CV, the track and trace app would say I need to isolate for ages, which makes no sense. The chances of a false positive (i.e. claiming I have come into contact with a CV sufferer) are astronomical.

And as you say, if person A gives it to BCDE and they each give it to 4 others that is 16 then 64 then 256 and then the track and trace team say "oh, person A needs to isolate" but there are hundreds of others unaware... it is like trying to catch the water from a bucket with a teaspoon, completely ineffective so why bother with all the fuss and billions wasted.
 
Bullet said:
And as you say, if person A gives it to BCDE and they each give it to 4 others that is 16 then 64 then 256 and then the track and trace team say "oh, person A needs to isolate" but there are hundreds of others unaware... it is like trying to catch the water from a bucket with a teaspoon, completely ineffective so why bother with all the fuss and billions wasted.
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Yeh I am the same in some respects I think the track n trace and even testing is flawed because of far too many variables out there. Some of which you have highlighted.
 
Looks like Vallance underestimated the likely speed of growth of the mortality rate in this wave. He said he reckoned we could be at 200 deaths a day by mid-November; unfortunately, it looks like we are already there.
 
SteveAWOL said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1319561114041057281
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Yeah no doubt those things happened but it fails to mention all of the other extreme measures that were taken. Mandatory face masks, work permits, 8pm-5am curfew, 5km radius, fines for going outside for anything other than essential shopping/work or exercise.

Putting it down to testing and tracing is selling it sort, and making the road ahead for the UK look easy. It's not.
 
tommysvr said:
Yeah no doubt those things happened but it fails to mention all of the other extreme measures that were taken. Mandatory face masks, work permits, 8pm-5am curfew, 5km radius, fines for going outside for anything other than essential shopping/work or exercise.

Putting it down to testing and tracing is selling it sort, and making the road ahead for the UK look easy. It's not.
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What's the plan after your extreme measures, as after all they are a blunt instrument and a reset button.?

I understand you think it's 'successful' and it is, up to a point but unless you have zero virus in the country (and also stop ANY overseas visitors, just in case) the wheels of the virus will start to turn again.

And remember you are 'paying' to get into the position you are.
 
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Oz heading to summer now so the cases will naturally drop anyway, as we saw in Europe. Which makes those comparisons from July a couple of posts above quite funny, you can’t do a 3 month time comparison for countries in different seasonal cycles ! Unless you’re trying to manipulate the data to try prove a point of course?
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
What's the plan after your extreme measures, as after all they are a blunt instrument and a reset button.?

I understand you think it's 'successful' and it is, up to a point but unless you have zero virus in the country (and also stop ANY overseas visitors, just in case) the wheels of the virus will start to turn again.

And remember you are 'paying' to get into the position you are.
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Good point. Whats the health service in Aus looking like? The original message here was protect the NHS, I watched the last leg yesterday for Stand Up to Cancer and 3m have missed cancer screenings, even with the original lockdown and what we are doing now as the plan means we have a backlog that is going to be near impossible to chip away at anytime soon. Based on the fact that you improve your chances of beating cancer by some way if you catch it early I might have to concede another lockdown is the way forward IF it is going to do what everyone says and clean the NHS path for people of all ages and illness the best opportunity to survive.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
What's the plan after your extreme measures, as after all they are a blunt instrument and a reset button.?

I understand you think it's 'successful' and it is, up to a point but unless you have zero virus in the country (and also stop ANY overseas visitors, just in case) the wheels of the virus will start to turn again.

And remember you are 'paying' to get into the position you are.
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The plan is what those tweets say: test and trace to prevent outbreaks, and also incentivise tests and isolation if you test positive (for example, if you need to take a day of work for a test, the government will pay you for it.) We also have the army door knocking to ensure people are isolating if they test positive.

Note that only Victoria has struggled with the virus. Every other state and territory has been as ‘normal’ for the last 4 months, including (shock horror) winter.

The rules for travellers are extreme too. Mandatory hotel quarantine, which costs the individual $3000 for their 2 week stay. It has been successful for the most part.
 
Gazza Dazzla said:
Oz heading to summer now so the cases will naturally drop anyway, as we saw in Europe. Which makes those comparisons from July a couple of posts above quite funny, you can’t do a 3 month time comparison for countries in different seasonal cycles ! Unless you’re trying to manipulate the data to try prove a point of course?
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Didn't Donald Trump say warm weather would kill the virus dead? Total horse brick of course.
 
Gazza Dazzla said:
Oz heading to summer now so the cases will naturally drop anyway, as we saw in Europe. Which makes those comparisons from July a couple of posts above quite funny, you can’t do a 3 month time comparison for countries in different seasonal cycles ! Unless you’re trying to manipulate the data to try prove a point of course?
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I’m not sure what your point is, but it sounds like you’re saying it’s obvious that Australia would have low cases because it’s hot here? There’s a few things wrong with that. We’re coming out of winter, and cases outside of Victoria have been low for months. In Victoria (Melbourne) today it was 12° - we’ve barely got above 20° for months. But the trend is down. Our two week average is 5.
 
Gazza Dazzla said:
Oz heading to summer now so the cases will naturally drop anyway, as we saw in Europe. Which makes those comparisons from July a couple of posts above quite funny, you can’t do a 3 month time comparison for countries in different seasonal cycles ! Unless you’re trying to manipulate the data to try prove a point of course?
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I'm not sure cases 'naturally' dropped away :D..I think the interventions might have had an effect?

And I'm not sure if they have a 'warm weather' version of Covid in India, Brazil, Mexico etc but it appears to love it.
 
tommysvr said:
I’m not sure what your point is, but it sounds like you’re saying it’s obvious that Australia would have low cases because it’s hot here? There’s a few things wrong with that. We’re coming out of winter, and cases outside of Victoria have been low for months. In Victoria (Melbourne) today it was 12° - we’ve barely got above 20° for months. But the trend is down. Our two week average is 5.
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Adam Hills was saying that it took every inch of a lockdown to get there last night on tele, 8pm curfew, 5KM limit on travel etc. Then he came back to UK and we might be heading into a circuit break, he was fuming haha.
 
In Wales you can eat yourself to death but dont think of reading

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ricky2tricky4city said:
I'm not sure cases 'naturally' dropped away :D..I think the interventions might have had an effect?

And I'm not sure if they have a 'warm weather' version of Covid in India, Brazil, Mexico etc but it appears to love it.
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It's less about the temperature than it is people's reaction to the change in temperature.

As with colds and 'flu, when it gets cold here we shut all the windows and stay indoors more. That lack of ventilation always increases the spread of both - it would be very surprising if the same weren't true of COVID-19.
 
scaramanga said:
It's less about the temperature than it is people's reaction to the change in temperature.

As with colds and 'flu, when it gets cold here we shut all the windows and stay indoors more. That lack of ventilation always increases the spread of both - it would be very surprising if the same weren't true of COVID-19.
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Could also be the case that your example fudges the figures aka warm weather might kill it off in the summer but there is no doubt that people are more reckless in the summer so any benefit is lost
 
scaramanga said:
It's less about the temperature than it is people's reaction to the change in temperature.

As with colds and 'flu, when it gets cold here we shut all the windows and stay indoors more. That lack of ventilation always increases the spread of both - it would be very surprising if the same weren't true of COVID-19.
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What...like away from other people:D
 
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